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Long Walk Hurdle 2016

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 53 total)
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  • #1277249
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2674

    Good write up OP

    Bit short the fav for me but deserves favourite though.

    #1277251
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2674

    UN Temps Pour Tout at 14s and the French horse at 7/1

    Also did the Alex De Veraldya at 33s for the world hurdle as I reckon if it wins tomorrow they will come back in March.

    #1277266
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26588

    This ain’t great form.

    Add that to the ‘no Albert Bartlett winner has won a non-novice Grade 1 hurdle’ stat, and we’ve got ourselves a beautiful 11/10 lay in a Grade 1.

    Zark’,
    Only 10 winners of the Albert Bartlett have raced on:
    Moulin Riche = was French and went chasing.
    Black Jack Ketchum – Fell at the 3rd in following year’s World Hurdle when 2/1 favourite, before 2nd at Aintree to Cheltenham runner-up.
    Wicheta Lineman – became temperamental over hurdles before rekindled over fences, winning again at the Festival.
    Nenuphar Collonges – went chasing.
    Weapons Amnesty – went chasing and won the RSA the following season.
    Berties Dream – disappointed as a chaser before 6th in 2011 World Hurdle.
    Bobs Worth – won RSA and Cheltenham Gold Cup following two years.
    Brindisi Breeze – died before racing again.
    At Fishers Cross – jumping became poor, yet finished 3rd in following year’s World Hurdle.
    Very Wood – Flattered to come from the back in an overly strongly run Albert Bartlet, went chasing.
    Martello Tower – 7th in following year’s World Hurdle when ground was too firm.

    Taking out Unowhatimeanharry himself, Brindisi Breeze (died) and all those who went chasing the following year… you’re left with:
    Black Jack Ketchum, At Fishers Cross and Martello Tower; one favourite for the World Hurdle, one 3rd and one 7th. Are you really going to judge a race as poor from those three horses? Evident – although it does vary from year to year – that horses with potential do win the Albbert Bartlett… A Gold Cup, two RSA’s (second of which didn’t race on) and a William Hill Handicap between those 7 to go chasing.

    Not that the form of Unowhatimeanharry’s novice performances come in to it anyway – improved a lot at Newbury.

    value is everything
    #1277267
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Another way to look at it is Unowhatimeanharry (the winner of the Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice Hurdle) beat the winner of the Aintree Novice Hurdle easily and by 6 lengths.

    Although Ballyoptic won off a mark of 148 at Chepstow and didn’t appear to have much in hand, that was over 2m3f110yrds on good going. He’s a stayer and better at 3m on softer ground. Would’ve won or gone close in the Grade 2 Wetherby Hurdle had he not come down at the last on his run before Newbury… And Unowhatimeanharry didn’t just beat Ballyoptic, he thrashed him by 6 lengths (with another 6 back to Menorah) without coming under maximum pressure…

    Menorah doesn’t win very often, but has really good form over fences. Best run 2 lengths 2nd to Silviniaco Conti in Grade 1 Betfair (3m1f heavy). Not as good these days but still came out the best horse at the weights in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall on his start prior to Newbury. Only beaten 3/4 length trying to give 4 lbs to Irish Cavalier. Same form as had he won the Charlie by 3 1/4 at level weights. Menorah had good hurdle form, winner of then Grade 2 International Hurdle by 4 1/2 lengths and 1/2 from Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti… and chase form proves he stays. Probably didn’t run to his best at Newbury but he was beaten easily and by 12 lengths by Unowhatimeanharry.

    Ballyoptic was giving 4 lbs to winner Silsol and Native River at Wetherby, so call it 4 lengths plus the 6 lengths of Newbury, plus he won easily – another length, plus we know from last year that when Unowhatimeanharry comes under pressure he finds plenty – add at least another length. So 4 + 6 + 1 + 1 = 12. So put Unowhatimeanharry 12 lengths in front (in the Grade 2) of Silsol and (over hurdles) Native River… Haven’t we got a genuine Grade 1 performer?

    value is everything
    #1277269
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7136

    I think you summed that up well Ginger. I think he’s a Grade 1 horse with great potential.
    Saturday is going to be an interesting day :good:

    #1277271
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2674

    This ain’t great form.

    Add that to the ‘no Albert Bartlett winner has won a non-novice Grade 1 hurdle’ stat, and we’ve got ourselves a beautiful 11/10 lay in a Grade 1.

    Zark’,
    Only 10 winners of the Albert Bartlett have raced on:
    Moulin Riche = was French and went chasing.
    Black Jack Ketchum – Fell at the 3rd in following year’s World Hurdle when 2/1 favourite, before 2nd at Aintree to Cheltenham runner-up.
    Wicheta Lineman – became temperamental over hurdles before rekindled over fences, winning again at the Festival.
    Nenuphar Collonges – went chasing.
    Weapons Amnesty – went chasing and won the RSA the following season.
    Berties Dream – disappointed as a chaser before 6th in 2011 World Hurdle.
    Bobs Worth – won RSA and Cheltenham Gold Cup following two years.
    Brindisi Breeze – died before racing again.
    At Fishers Cross – jumping became poor, yet finished 3rd in following year’s World Hurdle.
    Very Wood – Flattered to come from the back in an overly strongly run Albert Bartlet, went chasing.
    Martello Tower – 7th in following year’s World Hurdle when ground was too firm.

    Taking out Unowhatimeanharry himself, Brindisi Breeze (died) and all those who went chasing the following year… you’re left with:
    Black Jack Ketchum, At Fishers Cross and Martello Tower; one favourite for the World Hurdle, one 3rd and one 7th. Are you really going to judge a race as poor from those three horses? Evident – although it does vary from year to year – that horses with potential do win the Albbert Bartlett… A Gold Cup, two RSA’s (second of which didn’t race on) and a William Hill Handicap between those 7 to go chasing.

    Not that the form of Unowhatimeanharry’s novice performances come in to it anyway – improved a lot at Newbury.

    I have to say that this is a fantastic post. Very informative.

    #1277276
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Ginge, you’ve proved my point yet further for me! Not a race (mostly) for top class horses, and the winner is very likely not a top class hurdler. The fact that a bunch of them didn’t even bother staying over hurdles says a lot.

    #1277277
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3666

    Brindisi Breeze would of been the best of them! Loved that horse, had some great wins that year. RIP :rose:

    #1277281
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4525

    Although Ballyoptic won off a mark of 148 at Chepstow and didn’t appear to have much in hand, that was over 2m3f110yrds on good going. He’s a stayer and better at 3m on softer ground.

    I would agree that he is better over further, in fact the stiffer test the better, but I wouldn’t agree about the soft ground. His two full brothers and the dam sire would suggest that quicker ground would be preferable. It will be interesting to see if making the running will produce the hoped for improvement. I have my doubts as to whether his jumping is slick enough and whether Ascot will provide a stiff enough test of stamina. Richard Johnson is at least the right man to find out.

    Lot of pressure on the favourite to deliver again. It would be hard to construct a solid World Hurdle case if he is beaten. Personally, I think he is plenty short enough for both races.

    #1277283
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    I think Ballyoptic will definitely appreciate a faster pace. They went a dawdle at Wetherby + Newbury. Reve de Sivola should ensure this is a well-run race.

    #1277293
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Don’t think (in this case) breeding shows anything when it comes to going preferences tbh, Stilvi. However, I agree Ballyoptic “acts on good ground”, he’s shown that before. It’s just the win off 148 was 2m3f110yrds on good ground… and wasn’t a strong enough test of stamina to show his very best. May well improve further at 3m on goodish ground in a stronger run race (test of stamina) than Newbury. Hopefully making the running will do that. However, as you say yourself “the stiffer test the better”. Suspect it won’t be until having the thorough test of stamina softer ground at 3m provides that he reaches his peak rating.

    value is everything
    #1277310
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17608

    Nice one DB :good:

    Until the emergence of Uknowhatimeanharry, I was mad keen on Ptit Zig for this years World Hurdle, but that run from Harry at Newbury had me running for cover. A no bet race for me therefore, and I’ll be hoping for a big run from Zig, to keep my (dwindling) hopes alive.

    You couldn’t have put it better VTC. You know I feel the same way about Ptit Zig – I haven’t given up complete hope, but some of the names now being thrown into the WH are starting to make me more pessimistic

    Yeah Charlie, not quite as confident as I was 6 weeks ago, but keeping everything crossed :good:

    #1277424
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Taken 6/4 Unowhatimeanharry, 12/1 Ballyoptic and saved on Alex De Larredya @ 6/1.

    value is everything
    #1277431
    GoldenMiller34GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1165

    Hard to see past the favourite by a comfortable 6 or 7 lengths. LR would be second choice but I’m concerned about the stableform. My latest theory on Un Temps is that he only runs near best after the turn of the year. Think the French-trained horse will not translate his best form on British debut/G to S. Ballyoptic is more likely to harm his chances by setting a strong pace than improve for it – lead will be contested & Dickie can overdo it at times. RDS has earned performance ratings very similar to those in identical preparation last year, only THIS race will indicate whether he’s deteriorated, so may be 2nd. PZ looks good for a place.

    #1277434
    raymo61raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4854

    When I first looked at this race I thought it was a no bet race but to be honest after further studying I have come down on Reve de Sivola at 18/1 !!
    I can’t agree that it has to have soft ground as it finished second last year on good to soft and won the year before on good to soft!! I know he is getting older but at the prices I am not keen on the favourite which should win but not for me at that price.
    You could argue that the French horse wants soft ground and is accordingly under priced at 6/1.
    To me Lil Rockefeller is a two and a half miler and doesn’t really get three miles especially with his style of running.
    Ptit Zig can’t beat RDS on Thistlecrack form but has ran well a couple of times since and at 10/1 e/w could be interesting.
    Ballyoptic is rated on one terrific run at Aintree but for me has never lived up to that run since.
    Un Temps Pour Tout is a decent staying chaser but hurdles are an afterthought.
    Zarkandar is certainly not the force he was.
    West Approach has got to find at least a stone and a half and has been put in his place by Harry three times!!
    Surtee De Berlais is a huge price but could actually run better than her 100/1 odds but wont win!!

    My conclusion the fav will probably win but I could not resist RDS at 18/1 and have had a mad e/w bet on SDB at 100/1

    Good Luck Guys :good:

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