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Aye, Raymo, I looked at BR. She’s very good in these type of races and if the yard was in better form (I’d quite like to hear GT’s take on that) I might be tempted.
Agree with Raymo the Lee yard is generally in better form than current strike rate implies, Joe. Looking at things in the best way possible, last 9 runners read: 1, P, 2, 5, 3, 7, 2, 8(last). But fact is she hasn’t had a reappearance winner all season. Two came close, the penultimate “2” being when I had my money on Kylemore Lough and failed by a short-head.
At the moment I rate Kerry Lee’s form 5 out of 10, but that could easily change – has at least 5 runners before the Hennessey. There are other factors involved anyway.Bishops Road‘s last two starts read “UF”. One I backed for the Topham and didn’t get any further than the first, went to Sandown for the Bet365 and had the same fate. That said, further progress can’t be ruled out. Impressive winner of his two previous performances at Sandown and the 3 finisher Grand National Trial at Haydock. Very soft ground probably significant, jumps better out of it? There’s also a chance single figure fields are important. True, Kerry Lee usually does well in big handicaps, but there’s a possibility this horse is put off by horses close/around him. Might have a look if it comes up bottomless but doubt I’ll be backing him.
Value Is EverythingFor those who believe Native Ruler will be outpaced:
Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree that he won was run at a slightly faster average speed than last year’s Hennessey.
15.53 secs per furlong compared to 15.61 (both seemed truly run).I think Native River’s got more speed than people give him credit for; just needs to be pushed along to go that speed. Prominent early position might be more important; could be he travels more amenably and/or jumps fluently with a clear view of the front. Richard Johnson is certainly a big plus for his chances.
Value Is EverythingI’m happy with SDR, along with a cast of thousands here, but I’ve gone through those that I
think are likely to stand their ground, and I do like the look of UN TEMPS POUR TOUT
His win at the festival in the Ultima H’cap was impressive, he ran away from a very decent field.
You can’t count his subsequent run in the Mildmay where he went off fav, as he finished lame, but
his comeback win 3 weeks back at Aintree should have him him ready for this. There is plenty of 8/1
around, but I don’t see him lengthening in price before this, so I’ll add him to SDR. I think he
could turn out to be quite an interesting horse this season.Happy with my bets on SDR as well BigG. I have him at just under 30’s on BF to win as well, so will lay half that off this week and see what happens on the day.I should be in a good position by race time ( well that’s the plan )
It will be very interesting to see how Antony runs in the 3.30 off his 8 lb higher mark in the 1.30 @ Newbury.
I’m liking Blaklion in this.
In my estimation you need a horse like this that will stick his head down and battle. From watching the race before a lot of horses seem to cruise up in the straight only to either peter out or throw their tools in.
RSA winners and seven year olds also have a great record in this (I think about three RSA winners have won in the last 11 years or so) and he also has an ideal weight.
Interesting that the last three winners of this who had also won the RSA that year (Trabolgan, Denman and Bob’s worth) All carried considerably more than 11 stone to victory.
Probably those three mentioned are better than Blaklion but it does make you think.
Happy with my bets on SDR as well BigG. I have him at just under 30’s on BF to win as well, so will lay half that off this week and see what happens on the day.I should be in a good position by race time ( well that’s the plan )
It will be very interesting to see how Antony runs in the 3.30 off his 8 lb higher mark in the 1.30 @ Newbury.
It sounds like a good plan to me botchy
The 1.30 looks ultra competitive, but I don’t know if the 8lb rise would be enough to rein Anthony in, he
won the Sodexo Gold Cup so well he could still be ahead of the handicapper. I’ll be keeping an eye to see
what price he is when the market opens later this week.I’d also be interested in GENEROUS RANSOM if he makes the lineup. He’s been aimed at some good races
in the past when trained by Nick Gifford, and a year ago he was on a mark of 140. He transferred to
Phillip Hobbs last month, after an undistinguished year, and had a nice introduction 3 weeks ago at
Newbury after 7 months off. Hobbs is a great trainer, and if he can get improvement out of him he has
to have a chance running off 17lbs lower than last year. Again I’ll watch to see what the market does
when it opens.The 1.30 looks ultra competitive, but I don’t know if the 8lb rise would be enough to rein Anthony in, he
won the Sodexo Gold Cup so well he could still be ahead of the handicapper. I’ll be keeping an eye to see
what price he is when the market opens later this week.I’d also be interested in GENEROUS RANSOM if he makes the lineup. He’s been aimed at some good races
[/quote]Yep i will be keeping an eye on him as well, it should give a good indication on how well SDR is handicapped, as he was raised 1 lb after that run despite being not race fit.
Could look very well in after that 1.30
I really do not get Native River. This is a race where you either lie up with the hot pace or find an excellent rhythm and sit and wait – hard to do in the pack. He often takes an immense amount of driving and would need a three-jockey-relay to win this. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pulled up.
What??…Joe I rate you as a judge but when TAPK says you’re wrong you inevitably are pal!
Native River will comfortably make all in this he is not the same horse connections thought was too slow for the RSA anymore,(because he was beaten in the Feltham as a 5yo).Incredibly the handicapper has only raised him 2lb from that poor Kempton run and yet he should have won the 4miler at Cheltenham since and has won the Grade 1 at Aintree, he should be running off 160 imo not 155.The ground will be softer at Newbury on Saturday than it was at Aintree and yet he dictated the pace comfortably there.The thing is he doesn’t have to dictate, the day he beat ‘Un Temps pour tout’ at Newbury he was held up off the pace and still won so I’m not worried how he’s ridden personally.From a financial point of view I want Blaklion to win but I have backed both horses at 18’s and 4’s to place and 16/1 e/w Ante-Post so as long as one wins I’ll be happy.
Graham, I put up Generous Ransom on The BetVic Gold Cup thread as one for the Cheltenham meeting in December. I’m very interested in how he fares on Saturday, as he’s my #1 fancy for The December Gold Cup. On a nice mark just now, and a respectable enough run will do for me, as lower rated horses can figure in The Cheltenham race, as it tends to cut up these days
Yeah, still plenty of cash about for him Moyenne, and Henri Parry Morgan is equally as popular. Hope you got on the tail end of the gamble with Drumacoo.
Gord, he has ZERO chance of making all. He couldn’t make all if they took the whole Hennessy field to the top of the Empire State Building and chucked Native River off first.
Who do you think will lead Joe? Although quite a few in this field have led before, I wouldn’t describe any as needing to lead.
There is:
Un Temps Pour Tout can lead but didn’t when succesful in the big handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.
Holywell isn’t always best away (possibbly by design), sometimes races prominently, I believe he jumps/runs better with the pace. Doubtful runner anyway.
Double Ross appears to like racing alongsides or track pace these days. Very doutful stayer, wouldn’t want to go a strong pace. May want it to dry up if he’s to run.Bit more likely are:
Smad Place probably best at least up there with the pace, although doesn’t appear to need to lead.
Coologue won without leading early last time, but made a move to race prominently, possibly jumps better leading but this is slightly further than he’s been racing and (stamina doubts) may not want to force a strong pace.
Drumacoo races prominently, can front run but probably doesn’t need to.My guess for the most likely to take on Native River is the Pauling second string:
Local Show disappointed at the Cheltenham Festival tracking the pace but that could’ve been ground related; has run really well from the front and a test of stamina should suit.Value Is EverythingIt sounds like a good plan to me botchy
The 1.30 looks ultra competitive, but I don’t know if the 8lb rise would be enough to rein Anthony in, he
won the Sodexo Gold Cup so well he could still be ahead of the handicapper. I’ll be keeping an eye to see
what price he is when the market opens later this week.I’d also be interested in GENEROUS RANSOM
Graham, I put up Generous Ransom on The BetVic Gold Cup thread as one for the Cheltenham meeting in December. I’m very interested in how he fares on Saturday, as he’s my #1 fancy for The December Gold Cup. On a nice mark just now, and a respectable enough run will do for me, as lower rated horses can figure in The Cheltenham race, as it tends to cut up these days
I see that you had him down as your dark horse on the BV GC thread Bobby. I think you’re right,
he’s an under the radar horse, and he’s going to land a big one when Hobbs has him straight. I’d
be interested in him too if he heads for the December Gold Cup, he’s a much better horse than his
present mark. I’ll wait and see how it’s looking once the book has opened for the Saturday race,
and if he still stands his ground I’ll take a chance on him. I agree that a decent run would be all
you’re looking for, but even a win, putting him up 6 or 8lbs, would still have him on a decent mark
on his past form for Cheltenham in December. He’s definitely one for the notebookGord, he has ZERO chance of making all. He couldn’t make all if they took the whole Hennessy field to the top of the Empire State Building and chucked Native River off first.
I do love a strong opinion Joe,we might have an in running chat on Twitter….
Good luck its gonna be a cracker of a race.
At the moment I rate Kerry Lee’s form 5 out of 10, but that could easily change – has at least 5 runners before the Hennessey. There are other factors involved anyway.
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