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Mark, I don’t know what will make the running. I suspect your analysis would be much more accurate than anything I would attempt – you are usually spot on.
It’s not a race I’m having a serious bet in. Smad Place will probably try to lead but with that welter burden on a surface that will likely be much faster than his optimum, he will struggle.
There’s no doubting Native River’s talent, but he’s one of the laziest horses I’ve ever seen. You could say he runs in snatches but he looks to me at times to be saying “I wonder if the jockey’s tired yet?” He slows down a bit to see if he’s right, the jock gets after him again and NR goes “Oh, bollocks, here we go again!” and he ups his speed for another half mile then goes through the same procedure again.
He got a very soft lead at Aintree from 7 rivals who were happy to tuck in and they all thought they’d called it right as they turned in. But they hadn’t allowed for the wonderful clock in Dicky’s head. They allowed him a lead on circuit one and he outrode them on circuit two.
Soft leads in small fields are fine. He will not make all in a Hennessy. He struggled to stay prominent in the four-miler at Cheltenham. He made a couple of quite bad mistakes there too, though they seemed to actually wake him up a bit. He was fairly travelling going up the hill at the finish and must be a massive frustration to connections and punters at times. Big engine, but he just can’t be arsed using it half the time. I suspect when his lad goes to roust him out for morning exercise he shouts. “I’m up! I’m up!”, then pulls the straw back over himself and nods off again.
I’m not happy. looks like ive have done my nuts on this race already
Backed 4 horses at tidy prices and only 1 gonna turn up.
I need SDR to place to break even.
Looks like Wounded Warrior is running tomorrow so out of the Hennessy. A couple of others, too, so Vyta Du Roc will run ( fitness permitting ) and one of the other bottom weights might get in.
IM ON VYTA DU ROC AT TO WIN, MISSED PRICE SO NOW JUST TOOK THE 8/1. BUT ALSO ON LOCAL SHOW EW AT 50/1. STILL LOADS TO COME FROM HIM AS NOT ALOT OF MILES ON THE CLOCK
You always think that the Hennessy is going to be one of strongest handicaps of the season but I think this year we are looking at a below par renewal.
Nothing jumps out for me and I will be trying very hard to avoid having a bet.
You have a group of five second season novices and I am struggling to get that excited about any them. You would like at least one of them to be a potential Gold Cup horse and at this stage I can’t see any of them reaching that grade.
Contrary to several on here, I didn’t think much to Saphir Du Rheu last year and I would expect even less this time.
Given the nature of the opposition it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to me if we had the same 1-2 as last year. They look reasonably priced at 10/1 and 20/1.
Stivli gonna have to disagree with you. SDR is only a 7 year old and coming to the forefront of his peak years. The big pointer for me is Nichols was happy to win the Sodexo without being concerned of a hike in the weights as the Hennessy was clearly his main target and for all of us that have backed him it was a bonus he did not win.
It was well documented that was not right last year and was clearly a bit burly for the Ascot race. I do agree it does not look the strongest of renewals (lots of very good horses just not exceptional) which is why something like SDR could cruise in and at 25s at his current mark I think I have a peach of a price.
I can see a further huge plunge on SDR I think he will go off favourite and win before going on to impress for the rest of the season.
Good luck everyone.
Ortegawormauty, thanks for that post, i think a few people here think like you do. I dont know what it is but i always get an extra bit nervous with a few bets in the year as opposed to others, and this is certainly one of them.
May the best horse win.
Stivli gonna have to disagree with you. SDR is only a 7 year old and coming to the forefront of his peak years. The big pointer for me is Nichols was happy to win the Sodexo without being concerned of a hike in the weights as the Hennessy was clearly his main target and for all of us that have backed him it was a bonus he did not win.
It was well documented that was not right last year and was clearly a bit burly for the Ascot race. I do agree it does not look the strongest of renewals (lots of very good horses just not exceptional) which is why something like SDR could cruise in and at 25s at his current mark I think I have a peach of a price.
I can see a further huge plunge on SDR I think he will go off favourite and win before going on to impress for the rest of the season.
Good luck everyone.
My comments about Saphir were a reference to this race last year rather than his season. He had won his prep and went off 9/2 favourite. I just think that run is a true reflection of his ability.
I personally disagree Stilvi and would say this is a top quality handicap. As good a chasing handicap as you’ll see.
For the record I think it’ll be Sma Place who tries to make all but am on UN TEMPS POUR TOUT. I am a big fan of his.
He’s in one of my fun Yankees for the year antepost with Josies orders (Cross country Cheltenham), Vicente (National) and Valseur lido (Ryanair). One day one of them will land and I’ll be rich
Good luck all
He’s a decent horse but I’m not sure he will ‘impress for the test of the season’
Chapman on On the line on Monday actually read out his last few runs.
Beaten 44 lengths, 43, 33 and 12 I believe it was.
Hard to remain confident with more recent bad runs than good from him
My class and speed figure handicap.
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase
Native River 145
Blaklion 145
Smad Place 144
Vicente 144
Henri Parry Morgan 142
Aubusson 139
Local Show 139
Holywell 138
Double Ross 138
Triolo D’Alene 137
Un Temps Pour Tout 136
Vyta Du Roc 136
Theatre Guide 134
Saphir Du Rheu 133
Hadrian’s Approach 133
Houblon Des Obeaux 132
Carole’s Destrier 131
Regal Encore 130
Coologue 124
Upswing 117Mike.
I know the Tizzards are thinking of aiming Native River at the World/Stayers Hurdle after this; but does anyone know what’s likely to happen after that? Seems an ideal Grand National candidate to me.
Value Is EverythingI know the Tizzards are thinking of aiming Native River at the World/Stayers Hurdle after this; but does anyone know what’s likely to happen after that? Seems an ideal Grand National candidate to me.
I agree with you Ginger, he looks made of the right stuff. He jumped well round Aintree to win the Mildmay
and the distance should be no problem with his running in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival. I’ve no
idea what Tizzard’s plans are, but I just wonder if it would come a year too soon for him next year. If not
next year, then definitely one for a go at it in the future.You think Native River will consent to jump that high? :)
He’ll see that big ditch looming at the third and start looking for a ramp
Apologies Ginger, I just realised I read you post wrong, you did in fact mean
having a go after next year….I concurNote to self…..read the bloody post
No BigG,
I did mean THIS season.
True, he’ll only be 7 years old but imo Native River jumps fences really well when racing prominently. Wasn’t so fluent at Cheltenham but amateur ridden and (importantly) not so prominently ridden that day.Trouble is a lot of trainers don’t like running younger horses. Therefore less likely to be improving and/or as well handicapped. imo If they’re young and a good jumper – go for it!
Value Is EverythingYou think Native River will consent to jump that high?
He’ll see that big ditch looming at the third and start looking for a ramp
Although there are some lazy, tempermental horses who down tools Joe, Native River is a lazy genuine type who’ll be happier at a slow pace.
Value Is Everything
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