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Ginger, for info if considering an Ante-Post go on him for Aintree.
Despite the many suitable horses which the owners have had, they’ve never had a runner in the race, and they rarely enter them either. Their colours have also been more or less absent over the other races over the big fences as well.
With you now Ginger, after rereading it I thought the “what happens after that” was referring to
the season following the World Hurdle. But as you did mean this season, I’ll go back to my previous
thoughts. He is a decent jumper and will almost certainly get the trip, but at 7 he would have to be
defying a 76 year gap to the last 7yr old winner (Bogskar 1940). Never say never, but I’d think they
would keep him back to the following year at least. Having said that, it brings to mind Alan Hanson’s
famous throw away quip “You can’t win anything with kids” before Man U went on and won the double, so
you never know.Really got away with this, and made a nice profit on the “mini book”, mainly thanks to Saphir Du Rheu, and Vyta Du Roc, who I made a nice few quid off of. Down overall on the race with my bets with the books, and my Hennessy/Gold Cup Double’s, but enjoy doing this, and good when it comes off. I managed to make a profit on Monksland, and I’m not sure why, but was comfortably able to lay Wounded Warrior for a profit yesterday morning, even with the news he wasn’t going. I made pennies off the others.
With the money I made on the “mini book”, I added Double Ross at 240’s to 250’s. He’s consistently underrated, and I think he could just surprise.
If I was starting from scratch, I’d like to be with Smad Place, Vicente, and Blaklion, but should Smad Place win, I won’t complain.
Left with……
Native River 16’s
Saphir Du Rheu 25’s ewTriolo D’Alene 100’s to 150’s
Hadrians Approach 90’s to 140’s
Double Ross 240’s to 250’sAny one of those 3, would be most welcome.
Nice prices there VTC, however, Double Ross hasn’t got a cat in hell’s chance of staying 3m2f110yrds.
Value Is EverythingCheers Ginger, yeah, he’s maybe not the most obvious one, but I thought he stayed ok for a long way at Aintree before his saddle slipped. I’m hopeful he can give me a run for my money, though I realise it’s unlikely he’ll be in there fighting at the end. He’s been very profitable for me the last 2, 3 years, so I had to be with him for a few quid.
Cheers Joe, yeah, very happy, but in with a fighting chance anyway, and in a lot better position on the race now, certainly better than if I hadn’t did the book
That is a feat Bobby to be green before the event!! Top Stuff!!
I have eventually come down on HOLYWELL 25/1 and HENRI PARRY MORGAN 10/1.
I think this a very open race and you can make a case for most of them
Agree with Raymo61 with Holywell now it looks like Good ground. A small E/W bet @ 25’s 5 places.
Best of luck everyone
With it being almost GOOD ground doesn’t look as open as usual to me.
Saphir De Rheu is about the only established chaser who’s reasonably handicapped, but rarely finds much under pressure and others are unexposed. So SDR is unlikely to be able to win without needing to show bottle.
Strangely, Smad Place is the only third season horse I can see improving, but he’s on 166 now and will need a Cheltenham Gold Cup quality run to win this off that mark.Seems between the second season chasers:
I liked Local Show as an outsider, but not now the ground appears more “Good” than “soft”. Not an enormous negative, but reduced Vyta Du Rock to a saver due to the surface too. Aintree one/two Native River and Henry Parry Morgan are my main two biggest bets (see earlier in this thred). One outsider have backed is Coologue. Won the Randox back in October and – although isn’t especially well handicapped off an 8 lbs higher mark – is on an upward curve. Not absolutely certain to stay the trip, but goodish ground should help. Stable in a rut since last seen, but seem to be coming out of that in the last few days. Worth a few quid @ around 33/1.Saved on second season chasers (and Cheltenham Festival winners) Un Temp Pour Tout and Blaklion who seem to like large fields. Former has the appendages back on after hurdles prep, if (big IF) there is a Gold Cup candidate here it’s the Pipe runner. Twister’s not a Gold Cup candidate, but doesn’t need to be off 154. Should come on for a decent Charlie Hall reappearance.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book:
Native River 5/1, Henri Parry Morgan 7/1, Un Temps Pour Tout 17/2, Blaklion 17/2, Vyta Du Rock 9/1, Saphir De Rheu 14/1, Smad Place 16/1, Vincente 20/1, Theatre Guide 22/1, Coologue 22/1, Holywell 33/1, Aubusson 40/1, Local Show 66/1, Triolo D’Alene 50/1, Houblon Des Obeaux 66/1, Upswing 80/1, Hadrians Approach 100/1, Carole’s Destrier 132/1, Regal Encore 132/1, Double Ross 400/1.Value Is EverythingGT I’d have fancied Smad to run a big race but I think soft ground is very important to him these days.
One that’s well handicapped on old form is Hadrian’s Approach. You get a shock in this race from time to time and if there’s to be one tomorrow, it could be him. Good luck all.
It sounds like a good plan to me botchy
The 1.30 looks ultra competitive, but I don’t know if the 8lb rise would be enough to rein Anthony in, he
won the Sodexo Gold Cup so well he could still be ahead of the handicapper. I’ll be keeping an eye to see
what price he is when the market opens later this week.I’d also be interested in GENEROUS RANSOM
Graham, I put up Generous Ransom on The BetVic Gold Cup thread as one for the Cheltenham meeting in December. I’m very interested in how he fares on Saturday, as he’s my #1 fancy for The December Gold Cup. On a nice mark just now, and a respectable enough run will do for me, as lower rated horses can figure in The Cheltenham race, as it tends to cut up these days
I see that you had him down as your dark horse on the BV GC thread Bobby. I think you’re right,
he’s an under the radar horse, and he’s going to land a big one when Hobbs has him straight. I’d
be interested in him too if he heads for the December Gold Cup, he’s a much better horse than his
present mark. I’ll wait and see how it’s looking once the book has opened for the Saturday race,
and if he still stands his ground I’ll take a chance on him. I agree that a decent run would be all
you’re looking for, but even a win, putting him up 6 or 8lbs, would still have him on a decent mark
on his past form for Cheltenham in December. He’s definitely one for the notebookI know this is the Hennessy thread, but as there’s not one for the 1.30 at Newbury I thought I’d
bring up that there’s a bit of movement in the market on Generous Ransom. I know Bobby is a fan, and
I’ve taken the 10s with BV, unfortunately the best that’s on offer now is 8/1, but if Hobbs has brought
about improvement in him then that’s still good value. I think he’s worth a bet.GT I’d have fancied Smad to run a big race but I think soft ground is very important to him these days.
One that’s well handicapped on old form is Hadrian’s Approach. You get a shock in this race from time to time and if there’s to be one tomorrow, it could be him. Good luck all.
Smad’s good ground Gold Cup run was on the face of it disappointing, Joe. I wouldn’t judge any Kingy horse on what they did at the Cheltenham Festival, stable laid low with a bad virus.
Before that, won a 2m4f Kempton graduation Chase first time out last season on “Good” in decent style. It’s true improved subsequently on next start to win last year’s Hennessey on very soft; but Kempton was 2m4f and therefore less of a test of stamina than brings out his best.
Before reappearance I’d have agreed with you. However, Smad Place ran much better (off 1 lb more than here) than I expected given circumstances in the Old Roan. Staying on late to be only 4 1/2 lengths behind Third Intention, giving the winner 17 lbs – not a lot below his very best… And therefore, if he can put up a performance of that quality on good ground at only 2m4f – imo can expected to be as good as ever on good ground at 3m2f if not improve a little. Although I do agree, to see him actually win – I’d have liked to see softer; because on soft or heavy stamina is at a premium and imo possible to see a lot of improvement.
Having looked again, may be I have uderestimated Hadrians Approach slightly. Thrown in on some form, goes on the ground and still only 9 years old, so see where you’re coming from. However, I know Henderson is capable of improving them from first to second start, but needs to work the oracle here, didn’t show much on reappearance at Ascot. That said, yard are flying now. Hope Moloney does what he’s good at – switches him off out the back or rides wide. Do you think he jumps well enough these days to win a race like this? Surely do better in smaller fields and right-handed too? Trainer wasn’t keen in an interview – think it was on regional TV. Good luck.
Value Is EverythingGT I’d have fancied Smad to run a big race but I think soft ground is very important to him these days.
Is this just a hunch because there isn’t really anything in the form book to support that idea?
Prior to last year’s win he had won at Kempton over a shorter trip. He bombed in the Gold Cup but that was a much stiffer ask and he probably wasn’t at his best. Nothing much wrong with his seasonal debut, again over an inadequate test.
I think it is much more important to his chances to get into a nice jumping rhythm, somewhere near the front.
Yeah Graham, on at 10’s, there was plenty of 11’s on Oddschecker when I came in from work earlier, but each time I clicked on it, it had shortened to 10’s, but happy enough with that price. Happy to split my stake with him and Antony, who I caught last time out, so hopeful of a good show from the pair of them. I think Warriors Tale at 12’s in the same race is big as well.
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