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Anyone heard if Drumacoo is turning up for this?
Had him marked down as a chaser to follow after his romp at Huntingdon last year and although he disappointed next time out (possible bounce),prepared to give him another chance especially as I assume he would be off a virtual featherweight.
How has he got a chase handicap mark? I thought he had to run in three chases in order to get a mark? He’s only run in two?
Please can someone enlighten me
Bobby, I think I read somewhere that the 3-race rule no longer stands and that handicappers have more scope now. I wouldn’t swear to that, but I think I read something on the BHA blog quite a while back
I cannot see a way that Native River can win this. Surely they’ll go much too quickly for him?
He’s no oil tanker, is he ? I know he can need plenty of encouragement on occasions but that Aintree performance wasn’t slow.
Yeah Peter, he faces a bit of a fight to get in, and if he doesn’t stand his ground in the next few minutes, it’s definitely a few quid wasted for me.
I remember the lead up to the 2015 Grand National, and confidently dismissing Many Clouds, as he was far too high in the weights, I was happy he had no chance. More recently, and admittedly a million miles away from Newbury at the tail end of November, deciding that despite being a top class horse, that Brando had just too much weight to take The Ayr Gold Cup. Going back a bit, taking Granit D’Estruval at the last moment, over my old favourite Grey Abbey in The 2004 Scottish National, was a hard one to stomach. Watching Granit fall at the last, allowing Grey Abbey to win lumping top weight in the testing going, taught me a lesson.
There’s a few more like that which I’ve got wrong over the years, and it’s made all the more galling, as I have had some joy over the years, and it’s something I do pay attention to…….sticking to the top weight, they are, after all, more often than not, the best horse in the race.
This brings me to Smad Place. Completely overlooked by everyone this year, and I just wonder come Saturday night, will we be kicking ourselves for letting a 12-1 winner, which was staring us in the face, slip through our fingers. I thought he would have been far better suited to The Betfair, but Alan King seemed adamant that this was the target, despite the hike in the weights.
Over a trip short enough for him at Aintree last time, I thought he ran very well, and he had a similar prep to last year, coming here with a run under his belt over a shorter trip. It’s not that long ago, we had a previous winner come back to land this for a second time, lumping a big weight, and I’m seriously considering him now.
You are of course right Bobby. One of the first rules I was given was they don’t give weight to donkeys. And I have still gone against them thinking they had too much including Denman in his first Hennessy
I did seriously consider SP last year but I’d just about ruled him out this year. You have got me thinking again
How did Newbury fair with the rain yesterday and today?
Couldn’t resist a Hennessy Troytown each way double on Wounded Warrior abd Whatareudoingtome. 40’s and 50’s.
VTC – to be fair, that previous winner had subsequently proven himself a much better horse. I’m not sure Smad Place has achieved that or looks well handicapped but I agree partly with the theory.
There are a few below him in the handicap whom I’ve put a line through whether they run or not so…yes, he’s backable but I’ll only do so if one of mine fail to get in.Yeah, I’m the same Mark, haven’t backed him, and will spend the week trying to balance the books, but he’s one to consider, should I have some spare cash.
It’s easy to forget just how well he did it last year.
With jockey (albeit trainer’s son) booked, Henri Parry Morgan looks worth backing at around 14/1. I’ve already backed him for the Grand National. Peter Bowen is usually in good form in April but in pretty good form now. Of his last five to start in single figures in the last week: 1,5,1,2,2, with two others placed at double figures. Fitness might be a problem, Henri appears to usually need a run but this is a big race worth getting him fit for. Form looks good, was 5/1 fav and going well in the Bet365 when unseating final start. Prior to that was 2nd in the Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree. Now 5 lbs better off with winner Native River for just 3 lengths. Latter now favourite for this without running since. I agree Native River should be favourite, primarily because he’s already run well over hurdles this season and a particularly good jumper. But both have scope for improvement, both go on soft as well as good and both will be suited by a test of stamina at the trip. So why should the two be so far apart in the betting?
Value Is EverythingHope you’re right Ginger, a big run from Henri will do me just fine with Aintree in mind
I cannot see a way that Native River can win this. Surely they’ll go much too quickly for him?
What??…This is one of the easiest Hennesseys I’ve seen to predict the outcome of Joe.
‘Native River’ will try to make every yard but will be mugged by Blaklion 12/1 on the long run in.’Saphir’ will trade short in running but when he looms up to ‘Native’ it will be like Wayne Sleep trying to eyeball Ricky Hatton..Even though ‘Smad Place’ is a massive 19lbs worse off with ‘Saphir’ I expect Alan Kings horse to finish in front of Paul Nicholls jibber..The Handicap snip could be ‘Vyta du Roc’ as he’s near on a stone better off with the RSA winner ‘Blaklion’ but I am a great fan of RSA winners winning the same years Hennessey and I think the Twiston-Davies horse ticks all the boxes..If there’s a fly in the Ointment its the horse who trounced a Gold cup winner at Aintree but never tried a leg the last time he set foot on the course but hey when its trained by Jonjo O’Neill you know if this is his target Holywell will be placed at least at 33/1..1st Blaklion ,2nd ‘Native River’, 3rd ‘Smad Place’, 4th ‘Holywell’…Simples just like me.I like Blaklion a lot, Gord and will probably have a wee saver to back up my Saphir (at 25s) bet.
But asked to name a value bet right now, I’d have no hesitation in offering EW Theatre Guide at 20s. He’s way too big, having finished 3rd and 2nd in this. You need a horse that suits this race and he’s proved it. Yard in sparkling form and although he might not be quite good enough to win, he’ll be very hard to keep out of a place.
I really do not get Native River. This is a race where you either lie up with the hot pace or find an excellent rhythm and sit and wait – hard to do in the pack. He often takes an immense amount of driving and would need a three-jockey-relay to win this. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pulled up.
I have to agree with you Joe regarding Native River. I backed him at Aintree and thought the ride Dickie gave him was fabulous but this is the Hennessy and no way will he be able to lay up with the pace and I think he will struggle and like you I would rather bet that he is pulled up than bet him to win!!
I too looked at Theatre Guide ( which I backed in the race last year) but I thought he lost his place and ran on through beaten horses that had tried to go with Smad Place but he could be a big price at 20/1 !!
The two I fancy at big prices are Virak at 33/1 and Bishops road at 25/1.
I know BR will probably be aimed at the National but Kerry Lee’s horses are running okay without setting the world on fire but this looks tailor made for the horse and if it had a run I would be all over it!!
Virak has ran well without winning in lots of decent races over the last twelve months or so and may be targeted at this and if it turns up won’t be anything like 33/1 !!
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