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One of my favourite races of the season, and have already got a couple of bets on the go.
I’ve went for O’Faolains Boy at 50’s each way, and 55’s on the exchanges. Won here last year, and also ran very well for a long way in The Gold Cup. Trainer has got off to a decent start, and at those prices, more than happy to take a chance. Think he’s perfect for it.
I’ve also went for Native River at 16’s. With Thistlecrack and Cue Card grabbing all the headlines, this boy went a little bit under the radar. I thought he looked outstanding last season, and no surprise to see him head here, en-route to a serious bid for The Gold Cup in March.
I’m not sure that Tiger Roll would head here, but I really like him. A lot. An incredible performance at Limerick, and I’m scratching my head as to why it seems to have went unnoticed. Most impressed I’ve been by a handicapper in a long time.
I could also see the likes of Seeyouatmidnight run well for a long way, though he’ll hopefully give me a few clues to where he’s at, at Carlisle in a few weeks, whilst The Young Master would be of interest after his Sandown exploits. I wouldn’t lose sleep if either of these lost out, as I’m keen on them for Aintree, and wouldn’t want them to blow their marks.
Loads of contenders though, and looking forward to seeing the entries, and a few obvious contenders arising over the next few weeks.
Blaklion looks a nice price at 16’s, especially with trainer starting well. A bit early for me but tempted all the same.
Tiger Roll could be interesting, Bobby. Not wholly convinced with his jumping but he seemed to relish the trip the other day.
He was awesome the other day Joe. The horses back in second and third, Stellar Notion was clearly laid out for it by connections, and my old friend Kylecrue who I know well, has never been better. Tiger romped it though, and he’s became one of my main hopes for Aintree now, I was very impressed.
He’s not the biggest, and you’re right, he was a bit novicey at a few fences understandably, but he romped it, and I’m hoping for a couple of quiet runs now to protect his mark for The National. If he did turn up here though, I would have to take notice.
I had to bet Blaklion at the 16-1, and that seemed a wise move, as that price has gone now. Even though Twiston Davies has not ruled out The Betfair, I think this makes more sense and I have had another bet at 14-1. I will leave alone now, and will hold off until the entries come out.
I see Smad Place is going for a repeat bid. Should allow some of the good novices from last year like Native River and Blaklion to run with more generous weight on their back providing all goes to plan between now and then.
I like Native River also, particularly if Richard Johnson is on board as he showed what the horse was all about when ridden aggressively at Aintree. Not hard to think how well those tactics could work at a strong galloping track like Newbury where a clear cut success was recorded on last year’s card.
Yeah Sheriff, I read that Smad was looking to head here, though I thought that The Betfair Chase would have been a better option for him. Cracking horse, but a big ask to win it again off his much higher mark. If I can’t have the winner, I hope he lands it again.
Yeah, Native looks ideal for it, and happy with the 16’s, especially as he’s favourite now, and as low as 10’s. I don’t think this is that much of a surprise, for a horse who can surely challenge for The Gold Cup this year. Been chipping away at him for that since the end of last season, and hoping for a big season from him.
There’ll obviously be plenty coming out of the woodwork, once the entries are revealed, and I caught David Pipe on ATR tonight, stating that Vieux Lion Rouge will probably be heading here (edit). He’d be an interesting contender, and I’m sure that WPM will have this race in mind for one of his.
Happy with O’Faolains Boy & Native River though, with Seeyouatmidnight & The Young Master as potential subs, should anything go wrong.
One horse though, who has slipped under the radar a bit, is Saphir Du Rheu. He surely can’t be be as bad as he was for the majority of last season, and I’ve a feeling he’ll be a rejuvenated character this time around. Easy to forget he went off 9-2 fav for this last year, where he just couldn’t cope with Smad, but he could potentially be coming here off of 11 lbs lower. If he is better for the summer break, then that drop in the weights could be significant, and 25’s is massive. I’m sorely tempted.
Bobby, SDR was one of my savers for the Gold Cup last year. This season should tell us whether he’ll ever reach his potential, but I’ll stick with him a while longer – lovely horse. The only off-putting thing about the 25s is it seems way too generous, which suggests to me he might not turn up. I can find nothing on him at the moment other than PFN saying he ‘wasn’t right all last season’.
Yeah Joe, still think there’s potential there, as he looked top notch the season before.
That comment from PN is all I can find on him too, so none the wiser myself. It’s definitely a bit of a concern that the 25’s is available, but to be fair The Hennessy market is a bit shallow at the moment, with only 21 horses in the exchange market. That leaves only Skybet and Stan James with him priced up. Stan tend to add all horses from the exchange market anyway, so only Skybet really see fit to list him which isn’t ideal, though I suspect that they’ve added him because one of their punters has had a go on him by request.
A wait and see job then, but he’s got potential, and I wouldn’t rule him out of The BV Gold Cup either.
It was a while back, but it seems the Hennessy and the Gold Cup are the plan this season, so the 25/1 looks tempting to me, especially after backing him last year….off 11lb lower….very tempting indeed as didn’t think he ran that badly, thought he travelled well and just blew up….if he’s right this season, he must go close of that mark.
Too big an ask for SDR last year. Was still only a 6 year old and had to lump 11st 12 on bad ground against some classy older horses like Smad. Must have took it’s toll as never looked the same horse for the remainder of the season.
Any news on CONEYGREE 16/1 if he turns up here even though been off a while can see him giving weight away and giving these a beating.And agree with others on SAPHIR DU RHEU at 25s to
Oh I do hope it’s Wetherby; after seeing Cue Card win last year it would be great to see Coneygree in the flesh!
Coneygree or not Charlie Hall day is always great meeting to start the season with! Was bloomin’ cold there last year, though.
Native River is likely to be given a prep-run for The Hennessy at Wetherby in a weeks time. His rating of 154 over fences gives him a feasible mark for Newbury (Smad Place won of 155 last year) and is openly being trained for the race. Course form, a dour stayer and a sound jumper. I struggle to see Mr Tizzard’s charge being out of the first 4 and at 12/1 seems a decent each-way bet even a month in advance.
Be careful with NR as a hurdles campaign, it seems, has not been ruled out
“His main aim will be the Hennessy but we’re thinking about going to Wetherby for the West Yorkshire Hurdle.
“The thinking is if he runs well he doesn’t get a penalty and if he runs very well we’ve got the hurdling route to go down as he is only six.
“We’ll keep our options open. Off a mark of 154 over fences, if he’s going to make the improvement we hope he will then he should be well in at Newbury, but he has to improve a stone plus to be a Gold Cup horse.”
I really like the horse Joe, and have a few quid on him, obviously for this, and also for The Gold Cup. Having said that, I did find the 33’s which is generally available for him at Cheltenham, very generous, and was just a tad, too generous. Hopefully he will go chasing though, and they don’t let the presence of Cue Card and Thistlecrack influence the targets for Native River. We can’t have the Tizzard yard becoming like a “mini Mullins” lol.
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