Melbourne Cup 2010

Hmm, heavy ground even changes my mindset. All European (and ex) horses now have a chance, simply because they’ve faced these conditions over this distance. Buccelatti is definitely the one who is most likely not to like it, though. The race is a lottery, but hopefully a track pattern will develop by 6:05am to make it easier. I’ve only put a line through Triple Honour and Red Ruler at this stage. It will be interesting to see what type of a penalty the winner might receive for the Melbourne Cup, especially if the winner is dominant because of the ground.

This is mainly a thread update.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/super … 5939945523

http://racenet.com.au/news/637/63798.asp

Of the first three from the Caulfield Cup, I definitely thought the most encouraging ran looking ahead to the Melbourne Cup came from Monaco Consul. No horse from the first 3 wants 3200m more than him imo. The sires of the first 3 home were High Chaparral, Montjeu, High Chaparral. Descarado is now exempt from balloting for the Melbourne Cup as I understand it.

Of the International runners, Manighar ran well. Mr Medici loved the mud that is unlikely at Flemington. I think a good track in Australian terms would just destroy any hopes they have. That’s just my opinion, though.

So You Think is currently joint favourite with Shocking for the Melbourne Cup. If anyone has backed SYT confidently in the knowledge he will stay and run in the Melbourne Cup, I’m sure they will also have the mortgage on him for the Cox Plate on Saturday. If SYT wins the Cox Plate he will obviously be exempt. And 2nd or 3rd will ensure he rises enough to guarantee a place in the Melbourne Cup.

How far down the order of entry the field will go is something I’ve been trying to work out provisionally. It will be updated tomorrow with Metal Bender passing the first entry clause now. Maluckyday managed the same by destroying a poor Listed race at Randwick. 30 and below is around where some work might need to be done.

The simple way in is to win one of the Lexus Stakes, Mackinnon Stakes or Cox Plate.

2nd or 3rd in either the Cox Plate or Mackinnon Stakes, provided the horse has enough weight in the first place, will ensure a rise in the order of entry that could/should get the horse in.

A win and a penalty for those not high enough currently in either the Geelong or Moonee Valley Cups. Quite a few from the provisional Geelong Cup entries would need some penalty if they did win.

In the top 25 of the order of entry list from RVL, (Oct 11th) I have the following as horses who aren’t going to run or “?” mark horses.

Shoot Out – not going to run.
Zipping – “?” I’ll take a guess he will run if he comes through the Cox Plate well.
Zabrasive – Is gone for the Australian spring with injury.
Once Were Wild – Has to get through the Geelong Cup and show some form (?)
Master O’Reilly – purely because he never ran at the weekend. Quotes suggest he will run.
C’Est La Guerre – “?”
Buccellati – Could be balloted out.
Jessicabeel – Geelong Cup to come through now.
Doctor Fremantle – If they enter, he will be balloted out.[/size:3kvrb6l6]

Given the weather in southern Victoria over the last week the ground should be spot on for Drunken Sailor. Another Geelong Cup for the Cumani yard.

Americain may struggle. He looks the wrong type for an Aussie campaign anyway.

Of the Aussie runners Exceptionally and Mr Charlie look like they’ll figure in the finish. Rough place chance to Count Encosta.

I really fancy the Sailor though. All Aussie school kids of days gone by know the song …… "What shall we do with a drunken sailor …….. early in the morning".

Shoot Out appears more likely to run in the Melbourne Cup than I thought a few days back, so its best to correct that. Either way, how is a horse who started off in July going to win?

Exceptionally and Once Were Wild for me in the Geelong Cup. Exceptionally should have won last start at Flemington, very good finishing sectional. Once Were Wild could/should get an uncontested lead. It looks a good race whatever wins.

Having watched the race this morning, the only thing I’m left wondering is why Americain never acclimatised to America. He’d easily win a pathetic Grade 1 12f Turf race somewhere over there at his best. 0.5kg penalty at the most. Anything else is just re-assessing the chance he’s better than a 115 stayer.

A messy race in behind Americain. Moudre again attempted to do better than an Arazi like move by circling the whole of the field going 5-6 wide. Lexus Stakes qualification attempt next.

Exceptionally will also head to the Lexus as well for the ultimate knock-out race according to reports.

Mr Charlie’s run just points out why Fanjura is running in Listed country cups.

Once Were Wild’s run was more about the ride than the horse.

Both the Patinack pair provide a fair solidness to the form, for all they are not going to be Melbourne Cup horses.

And Drunken Sailor? Foot injury and he sits at number 29 in the order of entry when you take out those numbered 1, 15, 22 and 27. A Lexus Stakes winner to add for sure. Hmm. The wfa horses (Shoot Out, Zipping, So You Think) are yet to have their possible paths pinned down.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra … 42/latest/

I suppose if this information is made public via the RVL site this idea has my backing. All British punters wondering what the ground is in "our" terminology should have a simple system. Because a Dead 4 track doesn’t relate to Good To Soft like the RP put on their poor results service. It will be interesting to see how Flemington compares to Ascot.

There’s always a point where class matters more than stamina. SYT would run 2400m no problem imo – I think his ability to break horses from the front shows that. But from some quick searches of Melbourne Cup winners from 1988 and onwards, I can’t find one who had not run over 2400m+ beforehand.

Have you backed him for the Cox Plate, Himself?

Have you backed him for the Cox Plate, Himself?

Yes jose, I have.

So You Think now favourite for Melbourne Cup after winning Cox Plate in consecutive years.

I arose early-ish ( BST ) to watch the race.

Bart Cummings’ star was very impressive.

I still can’t see him winning the MC though.