Grand National 2009

Don’t know much about Darkness other than that his jumping was awful first time round but on his return from injury it looked a lot better; he was a class horse so I don’t know what sort of weight he would carry or how old he is now, but he could be a bit of a dark horse [no pun intended, especially as he isn’t a dark horse but was given the wrong name and the dark horse was given the name intended for him; sorry, I’m rambling..]

Oh sorry – forgot the most important bit: he is a chestnut

What about Air Force One?…is the National on his agenda.
Seems the right type of chaser (maybe not on trends/stats) but a strong travelling, safe jumping staying sort with a touch of class.

Mann was quoted 16 March 2007 that the horse will be a Gold Cup horse in 2 years time (ie, 2009). Can’t do both?

When I wrote "Can’t do both?" I was being unduly influenced by the remembrance of Cool Ground.

There are 22 days between the Gold Cup & GN this season.

There have been a few horses that have won or been placed in the GN that have run in the Gold Cup or at the Festival. The following isn’t an exhaustive (ie accurate) list, and I can’t be bothered at the moment to check how many days there were inbetween the two each year:

Silver Birch ran in the Cross-Country race at the Festival, but there were 32 days inbetween.
Royal Quest ran in the Gold Cup, can’t be bothered at the moment to check which race Miinnehoma ran in.

I suppose that it could be argued that for the placed horses, running at the Festival compromised their GN winning capability
Royal Auclair & Simply Gifted, 2nd & 3rd 2005
Blowing Wind 3rd 2002
Suny Bay 2nd 1998 ran in Gold Cup
Encore Un Peu 2nd 1996 to Rough Quest, ran in Kim Muir

Ebony Jane, 4th in 1994 was 3rd in the Irish Grand National 5 days earlier!!!

One thing we have to keep reminding ourselves is that Air Force One is a German horse, and might be capable or incapable of things that British, Irish or French steeplechasers can’t or can do.

I also read on Nick Mordin’s website that because of a fall earlier in his career, the horse concentrates on getting his front end over and on not falling, and doesn’t mind dragging his feet through the fence. How will this affect him at 29 spruce fences (assuming he doesn’t do it at the Water)? I’m not an expert on trees. Birch fences presumably cause scratches. Is spruce prickly?

must put on ante post bet for Old Benny after seeing Niche Market’s success today…….

I was wanting to do a little research into the relationship between the age of the winner and the Going. Unfortunately, the results on the RP website don’t have Topspeed’s Going Correction, so I’ve merely used the times of the race instead. Can’t be bothered to adjust the times of the race to account for the varying quality of the field.

Here it is, for its worth.

10yo 9m00.80 1996 Good Rough Quest
12yo 9m04.10 1995 Good Royal Athlete
9yo 9m05.90 1997 Good Lord Gyllene
8yo 9m08.60 2002 Good Bindaree
9yo 9m09.70 2000 Good Papillon
10yo 9m13.60 2007 Good Silver Birch
9yo 9m14.10 1999 Good Bobbyjo
9yo 9m16.60 2008 Good Comply Or Die
12yo 9m20.30 2004 Good Amberleigh House
9yo 9m20.80 2005 Gd to Sft Hedgehunter
10yo 9m21.70 2003 Good Monty’s Pass
10yo 9m41.00 2006 Gd to Sft Numbersixvalverde
11yo 10m18.80 1994 Heavy Miinnehoma
10yo 10m51.50 1998 Soft Earth Summit
11yo 11m00.10 2001 Heavy Red Marauder

A bit ambiguous, but I think I’d like to concentrate on 9yos if it is Good, and 10 & 11yos if it is softer.

A word of warning, KC and Moehat, I am concentrating on finding the winner, but I think you are just as keen on finding the placed horses. I think in most years the ages of the horses in the first four places are varied.

I was working on this last weekend, and I don’t think I’ve finished investigating some of the points raised, but I thought I had better post this before I either lost part of it, or spilt tea on it.

I was investigating two separate things at the same time, and as the Racing Forum doesn’t seem to accept tabs, I’ve split it up into two parts – breeding, and Cheltenham or Aintree experience, so as to make it easier to read.

Okay, some of us either can’t devote as much time as KC, or have as much knowledge of breeding, so I thought I’d try looking at the Flat Stamina Indices that the Racing Post use, and see if they are any good as a ready reckoner.

The first figure is for the Sire.
The second figure is for the damsire.
A — indicates there ain’t one, which suggests the horse doesn’t have many flat winners and is almost exclusively a NH stallion.

13.0 * 12.8 Comply Or Die
— * — King Johns Castle
11.4 * 10.9 Snowy Morning
— * — Slim Pickings

— * — Silver Birch
9.2 * 16.4 Mckelvey
— * — Slim Pickings
10.9 * 13.4 Philson Run

10.1 * 16.4 Numbersixvalverde
11.5 * 14.1 Hedgehunter
— * — Clan Royal
10.9 * 12.0 Nil Desperandum

11.5 * 14.1 Hedgehunter
11.2 * — Royal Auclair
11.2 * 14.8 Simply Gifted
11.5 * 14.0 It Takes Time

12.5 * 16.0 Amberleigh House
— * — Clan Royal
12.0 * 11.9 Lord Atterbury
11.5 * 13.0 Monty’s Pass

11.5 * 13.0 Monty’s Pass
12.4 * 15.0 Supreme Glory
12.5 * 16.0 Amberleigh House
11.3 * — Gunner Wellburn

16.0 * 9.7 Bindaree
12.4 * 10.2 What’s Up Boys
10.2 * 11.3 Blowing Wind
16.0 * 12.4 Kingsmark

11.3 * — Red Marauder
9.8 * — Smarty
10.2 * 11.3 Blowing Wind
11.4 * — Papillon

11.4 * — Papillon
12.0 * 9.0 Mely Moss
12.7 * 12.8 Niki Dee
15.0 * — Brave Highlander

— * — Bobbyjo
— * — Blue Charm
— * 16.4 Call it A Day
— * — Addington Boy

9.7 * — Earth Summit
16.0 * — Suny Bay
14.1 * 16.0 Samlee
12.3 * — St Mellion Fairway

— * — Lord Gyllene
16.0 * — Suny Bay
14.0 * — Camelot Knight
12.5 * — Buckboard Bounce

18.0 * 14.8 Rough Quest
9.7 * 12.1 Enclore Un Peu
12.7 * 6.7 Superior Finish
10.7 * — Sir Peter Lely

16.0 * — Royal Athlete
— * 16.0 Party Politics
12.7 * — Over The Deel
10.8 * — Dubacilla

12.0 * — Miinnehoma
16.0 * — Just So
16.0 * 14.0 Moorcroft Boy
16.0 * — Ebony Jane

If we rather arbitrarily, but I think rather reasonably allocate a stamina index of 15.0 to those Sires and Damsires without one, then the lowest combined total for a winner is 24.5f for Monty’s Pass. Now I suppose the vast majority of horses in the GN have a figure of this, or higher, and I was going to use last season’s field as a test, but I haven’t got around to it yet.

Of the placed horses, these are the ones who didn’t attain the 24.5 figure:-
Snowy Morning
Philson Run
Nil Desperandum
Lord Atterbury
What’s Up Boys
Blowing Wind
Mely Moss
Encore Un Peu
Superior Finish

Quite a lot. I started to investigate Snowy Morning, but didn’t write down the details, so I don’t know whether I am referring to the Sire or the Damsire. First of all, not all the information is available, as the RP website generally only goes back 20 years or so. Some of these Stamina Indices are made up of small samples of winners. In this case, it included a dual 6f winner with RPRs of 42 on each occasion, including at Laytown, if you please. I need to go back to calculate how much she may have brought the stamina index down by.

I’d imagine that Simon’s handicap rating will have gone down a bit which could make him interesting; what do you mean by ex local? has he changed stable or something? however a horse that surely has to be backed ante post because of the vast numbers of people called Simon who back him on the day!

33’s at the moment but no price with Ladbrokes; wonder if there’s a doubt about him running?