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How much ground does Henry The Navigator have to make up on New Approach from the Futurity? Just over 3 lengths. How much ground does Ravens Pass need to make up on the Dewhurst run? 3 lengths.
I do think Henry The Navigaor is being underestimated in some quarters. His bubble looked to have burst after the Futurity but the subsequent efforts of New Approach and Curtain Call suggest that run wasn’t anywhere near as disappointing as it looked at the time and I think around 12/1 is a fair reflection of his chance.
Cockney Rebel didn’t have the form in the book, neither did Footstepsinthesand, nor Golan and they are just the few I can think of in recent years.
Ballydoyle is probably the most powerful yard in the world, if they have a number 1 who can blame someone for taking a chance at 20/1 downwards particularly when the horse was clearly well thought of at one stage last year. We saw it all season with the Nicholls horses….starting shorter than they probably deserved but none the less the dominance of the yard in the major races was the main (and understandable reason) for the support.
all we know htn could over the last few weeks really started to come to himself and might have been working really well
I reckon he would have been shorter in the market before now if the vibes were that good
And Murtaghs opting to ride H seems to have been driven as much by the negative vibes about JP (including AOB’s assertion that he probaly wont stay)
As for those examples of sudden improvers, well of course. But how exposed were some of those? Hadnt Golan just run (and won) one maiden?
DJ…thats all very well, but given that both Ravens and henry’s performances were probably on unsuitable ground, shouldnt we be looking at their more relecvant form? Raven has posted one very catching performance. Henry hasnt…
Im in total agreement with Salselon here. If this was a Channon horse (who can get them fit early) with Henry’s form…he would be at least 20/1
Jesus
Cockney Rebel didn’t have the form in the book, neither did Footstepsinthesand, nor Golan and they are just the few I can think of in recent years.
Point is that Cockney Rebel did not go off as 4th favourite
Golan had run once (i have now checked), not 4 times
As impressive as they sometimes have been, their dominance in flat is nothing compared to Nicholls.
Yes, of course horses can show a great deal more in the Guineas than previously demonstrated. However, betting on the hope of this is certainly not the way to make it pay long term.
Also, in this case I would look for a horse who appears to be on an upward slope of improvement and progression. This doesn’t appear to be the case with Henrythenavigator, wouldn’t you agree?
Finally, last year appeared to be the first year for some time that Ballydoyle lacked a strong 2 year old posse. Those that did show some promise tended to be more middle-distance types, not potential Guineas horses.
Also, in this case I would look for a horse who appears to be on an upward slope of improvement and progression. This doesn’t appear to be the case with Henrythenavigator, wouldn’t you agree?
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i think the horse that comes under this bracket is Ibn Khaldun if i had loads of money would prob lump on New approach but looking for some value think this is the horse….
Also, in this case I would look for a horse who appears to be on an upward slope of improvement and progression. This doesn’t appear to be the case with Henrythenavigator, wouldn’t you agree?
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i think the horse that comes under this bracket is Ibn Khaldun if i had loads of money would prob lump on New approach but looking for some value think this is the horse….
Batman, sorry to bring this up again but…..
To be value a 2/1 shot needs to have a better than 33% chance of winning. So if you think New Approach is a good thing (ie a lot better than 33% chance) Get On!
Similarly Ibn Khaldun is value at 11/2 if you think it has a better than 16% chance.
A short price can still be value, a big priced horse can be poor value (on form e.g. Henrythenavigator).Ginge
Value Is Everythingi know what ya mean Ginge, but the cash i have at present my return would not be that high so in the off chance that Ibn K wins my return will be better than New A, but i know what you mean by value…..
maybe a double or back both and top up A/C with credit card and worry later
maybe a double or back both and top up A/C with credit card and worry later
No, no, no absolutely not, no. It’s far too easy to bet with money you have got, let alone money you have not!
Here’s a New Approach try making paper aeroplanes with you betting slips when Raven’s beat him………NA is one quirky horse who will beat himself IMO.very dodgy bet
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Today’s rain won’t have been in Raven’s Pass’ favour. There’s more forecast for tomorrow and Friday, too.
Ugh. And neither it is beneficial to the cause of my lad Henry.
I read good, good to soft in places. Emphasis on in places.
According to the Beeb website, Raven’s Pass is due to wear blinkers for the first time on Sat. Any thoughts on whether this may be seen as a negative? Hasn’t seemed ungenuine to me…
Hit and miss re. the ground – avoid the showers and the going will be at least good. Catch a slow-moving heavy shower and it could swing the other way. At least at this stage there’s probably little to lose by holding bets ’til the day, unilke the situation that faces the clerk of the course.
Personal preference is for an Ibn Khaldun / Spacious double. Question marks of one sort or another hang over the Dewhurst principles that are due to run and the time rating I have for Ibn Khaldun in the Racing Post is only marginally behind the Dewhurst winning figure. Spacious, who recorded a fair time rating in the May Hill, need only maintain her rate of improvement to feature prominently in the 1,000.
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