Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › 2000 Guineas 2023
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Triptych.
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- April 22, 2023 at 15:27 #1645005
Having looked closer at those times I’d say the Fred Darling probably wasn’t a great race or at least it wasn’t very well run, the winner would have finished 5th in the Greenham
April 23, 2023 at 09:28 #1645084Bad news for you, Nathan: Brian Meehan has confirmed that the French Guineas is the target for Isaac Shelby.
April 23, 2023 at 11:40 #1645105Probably a wise move by Brian as I think he’d be up against it still although I think “the Guineas” is open enough for him to stand a some kind of a chance
Chaldean didn’t get the prep he may have needed. Little Big Bear wins if he can stay strong enough but there has to be some doubts even amongst his sternest supports. Auguste Rodin won the group 1 well at the end of the season, possibly better over further and if he’s vulnerable could be his first race of the season the time to take him on.Royal Scotsman ran Chaldean close in the Dewhurst 12’s seems a fair price. If his price holds up nearer the day I might be tempted.
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May 1, 2023 at 16:35 #16462732,000 Guineas confirmed entries
Auguste Rodin
Cairo
Chaldean
Charyn
Dubai Mile
Flight Plan
Galeron
Hi Royal
Holloway Boy
Indestructible
Little Big Bear
Noble Style
Royal Scotsman
Sakheer
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"May 3, 2023 at 20:52 #1646467I’ve only just looked at the race and have had an ew on Sakheer even though he doesn’t fit my profile of a 2,000 gns winner. But he is an early’ish foal and has the magic word quickened in his profile: although, as he’s probably more of a sprinter than a miler you would expect him to be able to speed up a bit!
May 4, 2023 at 04:02 #164647513-8 about Auguste Rodin looks short to me. Does he have the one mile speed to beat all of ’em?
May 4, 2023 at 12:07 #1646489My ew 2…
Little Big Bear 11-2
Chaldean 13-1May 4, 2023 at 13:28 #1646493Interesting its Wayne Lordan coming over to ride Little Big Bear not Seamie Heffernan. Has there been a changing of the pecking order unofficially amongst Aidan O’Brien’s jockeys (or officially I may have missed it)?
You shouldn’t need to worry about these things in a classic but I wonder if they had a choice Chaldean’s camp might have wanted a draw nearer the other market principles.
May 4, 2023 at 14:01 #1646496Maybe Wayne rides him in the mornings and knows him better?
Is a bit surprising though
Ground currently gd to firm good in places
Looks enough rain between now and then for us to get proper no excuses good ground unless the rain on Saturday becomes heavy
May 4, 2023 at 14:08 #1646497“13-8 about Auguste Rodin looks short to me. Does he have the one mile speed to beat all of ’em?”
I have a feeling he will tbh
But as a chaldean backer I hope I’m wrong
I can see 2 of LBB, sakheer and noble style being on the snaff at the 2 pole then the red petrol light hits coming out of the dip
Then auguste rodin, chalean and silver knott being my 3 likeliest winners
Silver knott looks overpriced having won the autumn stakes over C&D giving 3lb to epictetus and holloway boy. That is a very similar level of form to auguste rodins group 1 win.
May 4, 2023 at 14:48 #1646501Does anybody actually fancy anything outside of Rodin/LBB/Chaldean/Silver Knott? I’ve seen a few shouts for Royal Scotsman which I get off the Dewhurst run, not for me personally.
There’s been a few where Moore’s gone on the fancier looking O’Brien horse and been done by the one with more credible stamina claims Ten Sovereigns over Magna Grecia being the obvious one but I guess Arizona over Wichita too and I think this year could be quite telling, they either really like Rodin or they don’t think LBB will stay (or both).
I have this funny flashback of James Doyle on Coroebus last year when I couldn’t have him and Buick was on the wrong one and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if its happened again although you do have the big stamina doubts this year with Noble Style.
May 4, 2023 at 15:44 #1646504Royal Scotsman 8’s
Holloway Boy 25’s has ground to make up with the fav but its a new season and could run into a placeGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
May 4, 2023 at 15:47 #1646505Very happy with my 14s about LBB. He’s going to murder the fav (and the rest) for speed when unleashed at the furlong pole; my only worry is that they ride him too positively. Hold him up, and wait until the rise out of the Dip… watch him go.
Wayne will be Lordan it over his rivals come 4:45 on Saturday afternoon… if he follows my instructions.
May 4, 2023 at 19:57 #1646524Hoping Gladders is right – unless I’ve missed it, I had to go back to 1980 and Known Fact to find a 2,000 Guineas winner previously unraced beyond 6f and even he only won the race on the disqualification of Nureyev.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"May 4, 2023 at 20:41 #1646533I haven’t looked but there can’t have been many winners not seen since August in their 2 year old seasons either can there? Obviously both factors are related, he’s not been kept to 6F because they saw him as a sprinter I’d be fairly sure he’d have come over for a Dewhurst or something if not meeting a setback.
May 4, 2023 at 22:16 #1646548I don’t want to back more than one for this and the top 3 in the betting are hard to separate, although Auguste Rodin is a horrible price.
Instead I am going to stick a few schpuds on Dubai Mile for Charlie Johnston and Danny Muscutt.
He won the group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 10f on his final start with a battling gutsy performance. If he is at the forefront of the pack with 2-3 furlongs to go then it would not surprise me if he stuck at it to finish in the frame.33/1
May 5, 2023 at 06:12 #1646572“he’s not been kept to 6F because they saw him as a sprinter I’d be fairly sure he’d have come over for a Dewhurst or something if not meeting a setback.”
Indeed, the plan was to run in the 7f National Stakes at The Curragh prior to the setback.
But IMO that means nothing – the bottom line is the form that makes him the price he is is at 6f and unless I missed one (or more) I had to go back 43 years (and even then it was on a disqualification) to find one with that profile.
I’m on at 14/1, I hope he wins, but I’d be lying if I said it’s not a concern for me.
Plus Ryan Moore is on the other one – Moore’s not always on the winner, but it’s an indicator – and reports are he’s never been worked beyond 7f.
It’s a myth it’s a stiff mile – I’ve walked it and it’s if anything gently downhill the first 7f – but nothing that’s really a sprinter ever seems to win it.
If you don’t truly stay the mile you don’t bag a 2,000 Guineas.
Fascinating race tbf.
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