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Winner has won on good and soft ground and only three of the field started off at single digit prices with the other 2 (both Aiden’s) blowing out for one obvious reason (LBB is clearly a sprinter) and one unknown (AR who has won on soft and heavy ground so that can’t be the reason for his shocking run).
The winning time ended up only being 5.74s slower than standard so not a desperate ground time – the second horse could well be a sleeper horse that probably shouldn’t have started at quite that big a price, Royal Scotsman ran well considering he pulled too hard and was on the wrong side of the group and the 4th won the Goffs Million on soft ground, the 5th Dubai Mile was always going to need further considering he won a French G1 over 10f in heavy ground.
8 of the 14 were having their first run of the season, the 1st/2nd and 4th home all had a race this season (albeit Chaldean without his jockey) so had fitness on their side, some were a doubt at the trip and a lot were noticeable pulling early on in the race so some of the performances (or lack thereof) are explainable.
The winner isn’t flashy but (outside the Greenham) he just keeps on geting the job done when it matters on the day and he looks like a strong stayer at the trip.
At what time would the 2000 Guineas usually be run? Something like 3.30pm?
It was only about an hour later off than usual but the ground was already very soft by mid-afternoon.
I am not convinced the later start time cost either Ballydoyle runner the race. The ground would have been too soft for Little Big Bear anyway and Auguste Rodin simply hasn’t turned up.
From Kevin Blake’s twitter:
“Aidan O’Brien has confirmed to me that Little Big Bear was lame post-race after being struck into in the early stages. He will be assessed in the coming days before future plans are made.
Contrary to some reports, Auguste Rodin did not burst blood vessels. Ryan Moore reported that was never travelling after being bumped in the same incident in the early stages. Other than that, he seems fine and will be trained for the Derby.”
LBB probably got that injury when there was that bump with Royal Scotsman early on but he was already pulling before that happened so it was very unlikely that he would have conserved enough energy to get home anyway……he looks a Commonwealth Cup/July Cup/Sprint Cup horse all day long.
With regards to the hour later start time (last year’s race was run at 3:40pm) to me there is absolutely no reason that it should have affected anyone particular horse as it is not as if the change was not known about well in advanced, so all horses were on a level playing field on that score.
If we are truly saying it adversely affected the O’Brien horses specifically re-travelling then he might as well not bother sending anything over for the Derby as that is being run earlier the usual and they can’t fly over at the normal time they have in the past.
Re the ground, the Suffolk Stakes which was run at 3:25pm (was 5.88s slower than standard) and the Palace House run at 4pm (was 2.42s slower than standard) and that tells you that the ground wouldn’t have been any better than it was at 4:40pm.
Didn’t realise until rewatching the race again that Chaldean veered slightly right a stride after coming out of the stalls and for a split second Frankie looked like he was in danger of coming off again.
The race was very messy and the horses stands side were all over the place.
Jim Crowley and Royal Scotsman caused the worst of the interference but most of those horses looked as if they needed further.
Lots of lines drawn under lots of horses in that race but the best horse won.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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