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I read an article recently that the Kameko form on the AW should be taken with a pinch of salt because, being a Kittens Joy, there’s likelihood he would’ve been more suited by race conditions than others in the race.
I put this up yesterday as well Mike, and i said it’s hard to quantify that, it’s pretty much guessing. To be honest, the more i’ve looked into Kitten’s Joy, he was a turf horse in the US and his sire record is good for turf horses there, and pretty poor for dirt horses! Kameko could of course still have liked the AW better than the others, but it’s not something we can probably be confident on.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!As I said in my post, we can argue the form of the Trophy Stakes all day. We can summarise it by saying, it can be spun either way pretty easily.
One on hand, Kameko looks more like a horse suited to a flatter track, the AW Newcastle run flattered him and the Galileo’s in behind are more middle-distance colts.
On the other hand, he was Green in the Solario and was the best horse in the race and looked a little inexperienced still in the Royal Lodge, got daylight too soon, but then improved significantly for being switched off in a strong pace in the Trophy Stakes and then accelerated nicely to win. Accelerating nicely off a strong pace in a mile is the perfect Guineas trial. Plus he might well have beaten AOB’s 2 first string derby horses, who are usually very strong milers at 2.
It really can be spun either way. Oisin Murphy did actually say last year he’s not sure Newmarket is his track, so there is an element of doubt there I accept, but that’s factored very nicely into 14/1. Oisin seems very confident this week however.
What I said Mike was that had it been run on grass and exactly the same result occurred, he would be 5/1 now. If he was 5/1 right now, I wouldn’t be quite so keen. It’s definitely a value thing for me currently.
Regarding 2year old form lines, it’s so difficult to do that with 2-year-olds, because they are improving and developing at such different rates. If you go back and look at the Solario, Kameko was the best horse in the race, ran a bit green on just his second start(Positive 3rd), but when the penny dropped he took off. He was also 14/1 that day, so not even fancied to be ready. Whether he liked the ground or not, Positive made no improvement in the Dewhurst, whereas Kameko was/is improving. Then you look at Wichita’s Tattersalls Stakes win and you could really pick holes in that. Lord of the Lodge was withdrawn just before the race and Wichita really beat nothing at all.
But I remember you backed Magna Grecia last year, so maybe you’re right again! AOB second strings at 20/1 are almost worth backing blind anyway to be fair!
I would agree with you to an extent about horses improving with racing as 2 year olds at different stages.
Wichita didn’t see a racecourse until 23rd August. Which is why there is a possibility of more to come.
Being supplemented for the Dewhurst and Ryan Moore deciding to ride him over Arizona was interesting. He just didn’t like the soft ground too much in the end and wasn’t disgraced.I came across this article. I don’t agree with the order he has put them in but I enjoyed the read.
A couple of articles from Simon Rowlands on both your fancies clock performances. I would imagine he might be tipping Wichita up for this too. Handles track and trainer record in his favour. Perhaps he is too big after all?
https://www.theirishfield.ie/simon-rowlands-guineas-more-suitable-for-classy-kameko-506546/
https://www.theirishfield.ie/simon-rowlands-wichita-best-of-newmarket-juveniles-498386/
On the other hand with Kameko we have a trainer who doesn’t have a great record in the race and doesn’t necessarily have a great record first time out with horses either?
I feel myself jumping on the Wichita bandwagon here lol.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I personally believe if you devalue the Newcastle form then you have to say that the closest O’Brien runners all ran below par?! I don’t believe that they did…but we could argue/debate that all day long! Regarding Kameko I’d be more worried about the actual course and maybe first time out exuberance/buzziness than the surface itself. I still believe that if he runs up to his merits then he will be a major force in this year’s 2000 Guineas…..Time will tell
Wichita is value no doubt. They both are. (Kameko)
Can’t see Wichita at 20/1 on the day.
These aren’t normal AOB Guineas horses though IMO. They have 5/6 No Nay Never Bred 2 year olds this year though so if either Wichita or Arizona win for him then Coolmore might have unearthed another string of future Guineas winners under a new sire.
Fascinating to see how it works out and amazing to be able to talk about it and see how it works out finally!!
Andrew Balding / Qatar / O Murphy is an
Exciting team for me though this yearTime to see, wish the race was this weekend!
Pinatubo is a worthy favourite, but if (and I’m aware that it’s a big if) Alson lines up, I think he’s got some real value. He’s not done a lot wrong and has the right sort of profile. Put it like this – I’ve got more belief that he’s capable of beating the favourite than either of the two AOB horses who’ve been talked about.
I also like Kenzai Warrior as an ew bet, for the reasons other people have mentioned. Certainly, 40s looks a bit too big.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Alison left in the French 2000 at last entry stage, We will find out tomorrow morning 10.30 French time whether he stands his ground
Alson isn’t out of it from an ew angle, but having had a look at him myself as a possible bet, my suspicion is that there are better French horses in the stable and they are staying at home. He is also virtually matched with Armory on their Jean-Luc Lagardere run. Armory had already been beaten by Pinatubo by 9 lengths at the Curragh and I haven’t read anywhere that Armory is the top 2 in the pile as far as AOB Guineas contenders are concerned so far (though this could still change hope not but it might). Wichita was also a big fancy in the race Alson won at the end of last season but was taken out due to the bad ground where Armory didn’t run his race.
On a line through an able Armory, Alson is rated 110/111 having had 6 runs. Wichita is 114 with 4 runs. So I went with Wichita.
Yes, reading an article this morning its looking like Fabre may keep him at home as well.
final decs
Alson drawn 3
The Summit 5
Celestin 9
Shinning Ocean 7
Victor Ludorum 2
Kenway 8
Arapaho 1
Reshabar 6
Ecrivain 4Threat out of Guineas and waiting for the SJP. Shocked at that. No mention of Al Madhar either so likely not running. He’s going with Mums Tipple by the sounds of it
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