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1992 Zafonic. 1st.
1994 Celtic Swing. 2nd.
1995 Alhaarth. 4th
1996 Revoque. 2nd.
1997 Xaar. 4th
2000 Tobougg 8th
2002 Hold That Tiger. 17th.
2003 One Cool Cat. 13th.
2005 George Washington. 1st.
2007 New Approach. 2nd.
2008 Mastercraftsman. 5th.
2009 St Nicholas Abbey. 6th.
2010 Frankel. 1st.
2012 New Approach. 1st.
2013 Kingston Hill. 8th.
2014 Gleneagles. 1st.
2015 Air Force Blue. 12th.
2016 Churchill. 1st.For all you stat lovers out there here is a list of Champion 2 year olds who ran in the 2000 guineas the following year. Of the 18 that tried, 6 had won. So two thirds of the horses that tried didn’t.
So not a given by any means that Pinatubo will win.
The recent renewal record has been more favourable, of the last 10 renewals of Champion 2 year old runners, 5 have won so a better percentage.
Interesting Mike, thanks for that!
Given i think Pinatubo is the likeliest winner by a good bit and clearly has the strongest form by a long way- i decided to try and look for a horse, that was still much more unexposed. Now i haven’t actually backed him, but i thought Al Madhar was interesting?
Hannon was glowing about him, he didn’t have any fancy entries when winning at Newmarket, he did mention he wasn’t planning on running him much or at all after that- which i suppose allows for the layoff- for all i would’ve thought they would run him at least once more at 2?
Hannon said in March he could go straight here- corona has obviously forced his hand, but he does seem interesting?
Since March 17,Hannon is 320 runs, 36 wins, and 88 placed with first time out 2yos. So while he gets winners in the sphere, he isn’t as well known for it like his father. So for this horse to win first time out at Newmarket probably indicates he has a fair amount of natural ability. Always difficult to know how fit they are in maidens, but Al Suhail has shown the form up quite well, first receiver finished 2nd NTO and Tsar won.
Hannon can ready them for this as we know, and possibly he can do the same here to run into the money or cause a shock?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I find whether Arizona or Wichita stay the strong Guineas mile quite fascinating actually. Last year I was a bit against Magna Grecia on a Sire Trend, but in hindsight that was silly because he’d won over a mile already but more importantly, he had Galileo in his bloodline.
Remarkably, Galileo has either been the Sire or DamSire of the last 6 Guineas winners, so it was clearly my mistake.
This year though, there is a very clear negative on the Breeding trends. Horses with a joint sire index of 17 or lower, that started the Guineas at odds of 14/1 or lower are 0/18 in the last 10 running’s.
No Nay Never is a fast horse, no doubt, won at only 5-6F, couldn’t win a Group 1 over 6.5F on his last start in the Breeders Cup Turf because it was too far and actually wasn’t a spectacular horse, best RPR run (117). He is similar in profile to Invincible Spirit (Magna Grecia’s Sire, but IS had more consistent and slightly better form, best RPR run (119,119,119,120).
On the Dam side Wichita’s won over 6.5F Listed (RPR 101, more speed in the breeding) and Dashing Blade, the DamSire was also not a really exciting horse that you would normally associate with Guineas winners. Won an Italian 12F Grp1, his best RPR was 121 and importantly he didn’t step up to 12F until later in his 3 year old career. He is certainly no Galileo.
For Arizona, Lady Ederle raced 4 times over a mile in Maiden’s, finishing 3489 and “finished tired” in 3 of those 4 races. English Channel the DamSire, was slightly better, (best RPR 124), but also didn’t step up to 12F until later in his 3 year old career either.
Magna Grecia’s Dam Cabaret was a Grp3 7F winner, (RPR 106).
In summary Magna Grecia’s breeding profile looked more suited to a Guineas test than either of Arizona’s and Wichita’s distance wise and also, it’s a better quality breeding profile all round. MG wasn’t a particularly strong Guineas winner either.
So, I think as Aidan O’Brien Guineas horses go, they are pretty unconvincing for me, considering Arizona has run 7 times already, could’ve been backed at 14/1 for the Dewhurst and Ryan Moore deserted him for Wichita.
I’ve backed Arizona to come back to trip and win the Commonwealth Cup.
As for Wichita, I thought originally, he might stay in Ireland for the Guineas there, not such a strong test, but as said already it appears, they will both run at Newmarket. I think 20/1 is a fair EW price actually and I could see him squeaking a place, but I just can’t see him winning and I like my EW shots to have a good chance of winning.
So that’s why I went for Kameko. My biggest worry is the track and what Oisin Murphy said about that, but I’ll have to take my chances on that.
When drawing comparisons to Roaring Lion, both by Kitten’s Joy, it also becomes quite fascinating. The Dam of RL was Vionnet, whose best run was over 10F (RPR 107) out of Street Sense, whose best run was also over 10F (RPR 127).
In comparison, Kameko’s Dam is Sweeter Still, whose best run was finishing 2nd in a Grp2 8F (RPR 104), out of Rock of Gibraltar, of course the 5 times Grp1 winning miler (Best RPR 131).
If anything, Kameko’s breeding profile is slightly more suited to a mile than Roaring Lions was. RL was beaten only 2.5L into 5th in the Guineas, with comments “just couldn’t quicken enough to get on terms”.
In his column about striding data, Simon Rowlands said “In terms of the future, I suspect that Kameko may prove to be a miler, though one who gets the trip well on a stiff track with a strong pace. His striding here (2.48 strides/second maximum, 2.27 minimum) previously suggests as much”
In terms of form, both ran 4 times as a 2 year old, RL best RPR 118 and Kameko best RPR 117.
(We can argue the form of the Trophy Stakes all day being on All Weather last year).
It is a very similar profile with Kameko being better suited to the Guineas than RL was.
Kameko’s breeding is more exciting on paper than either of AOB’s leading hopes and when looking at what else is near the top of the betting in the race, Kinross is interesting but this is a big ask, Threat I suspect will drop back in trip afterwards, Military March and Al Suhail, likely much better over further, Alson a massive afterthought for me, Kameko is for me the biggest danger to Pinatubo and that’s why I went for him.
Kameko 14/1 EW
In terms of lightly raced colts, all of the last 20 winners had already recorded a previous race RPR of 110. Guineas winners are usually very forward in their careers, so the likes of Al Madhar and co have too big an ask for me this year.
Is it 100% that the Irish will be allowed to come over for the Guineas?
That needs permission from not only the UK government but also from the Irish government. It’s a brave man who is backing anything antepost for this race in my opinion especially those backing the Irish runners.
Yes Captain they are allowed to come over. For the Group 1’s in those initial weeks. BHA comment below…
“Should racing resume on this date (June 1), it is agreed that protecting ourselves against unnecessary risk in the opening few weeks is a responsible and proportionate approach.
“As a result, foreign-trained runners will only be permitted to run in the three Group One races (1000G, 2000G, Coronation Cup) taking place in Britain during the first fortnight, in order to help facilitate a safe and smooth resumption.
That’s good news then Mike as the race wouldn’t be the same without the Irish.
I will still wait to the day to place a bet as the draw can be very important.
If forced to place a bet today I would probably take the 40/1 on Positive. Looks over priced.
No Nay Never is a fast horse, no doubt, won at only 5-6F, couldn’t win a Group 1 over 6.5F on his last start in the Breeders Cup Turf because it was too far and actually wasn’t a spectacular horse, best RPR run (117). He is similar in profile to Invincible Spirit (Magna Grecia’s Sire, but IS had more consistent and slightly better form, best RPR run (119,119,119,120).
Having only raced 6 times in his life, probably twice over too far- it’s hard to actually know how good he was. Obviously you are just working off the evidence in front of you, but it’s quite possible he was a spectacular 5/6f horse. I can’t remember that far back, but i presume he had a layoff for most of his 3yo career.
I know you’ve said about the form of the race being on AW etc. But i do wonder, how much Kameko was purely suited to it being on that, compared to the others. Hard to actually quantify that. His form beforehand could arguably have him as a g3, g2 and g1 winner, 4 in a row if it wasn’t for a nose + a neck! However, the form of those runs doesn’t scream to me 14/1 back on turf?
Has he beat some of Derby hopes in Mogul + Innisfree with YOTT in between showing little form all year? A straight mile at 2 should be far enough for potential Derby hopes, but i just think Kameko’s run there needs taken with a pinch of salt…Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The other thing to think about when deciding to back a shortie in the Guineas is the possibility of a draw bias if they split, like last year. In those circumstances, Pinatubo could win his race on his side but not win the race.
I hope they all congregate down the middle but it doesn’t always happen unfortunately.
In terms of lightly raced colts, all of the last 20 winners had already recorded a previous race RPR of 110. Guineas winners are usually very forward in their careers, so the likes of Al Madhar and co have too big an ask for me this year.
King of Change + Barney Roy sort of buck that and funnily enough are both Hannon horses. Yes BR went onto buck the trend as a 3yo before the Guineas, but that trend is windy this year given the break in racing.
Yes that could would against Al Madhar, but just have a feeling he’s decent and could run a big one?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!To reply to Mike007
Thanks for the stats, I had a look at this also. One thing I did notice is that most of the Champion two year olds who failed in the Guineas were either not favorite or USA bred/Sire was USA sire.
The only Champion 2 year olds who started as favourite and were Bred outside USA ( or did not have a USA Sire/Dam) are:
1. Toubougg (has USA dam though)
2. New Approach (beaten a nose)
3. St Nicholas Abbey (bred for middle distances)So if a Champion 2 year old is from a non USA sire and starts favourite its 3/6 or 1/2 on these updated stats. I honestly think Pinatubo is a decent bet at around evens.
Not saying this is particularly scientific but just some food for thought.
1992 Zafonic. 1st.
1994 Celtic Swing. 2nd. USA
1995 Alhaarth. 4th USA
1996 Revoque. 2nd. USA
1997 Xaar. 4th Sire and Dam USA
2000 Tobougg 8th Dam USA
2002 Hold That Tiger. 17th. USA
2003 One Cool Cat. 13th. USA
2005 George Washington. 1st.
2007 New Approach. 2nd by a nose.
2008 Mastercraftsman. 5th. Not Favourite
2009 St Nicholas Abbey. 6th.
2010 Frankel. 1st.
2012 Dawn Approach. 1st.
2013 Kingston Hill. 8th. Not Favourite
2014 Gleneagles. 1st.
2015 Air Force Blue. 12th. USA
2016 Churchill. 1st.I think Frenchy has made some valid points and although I am no breeding expert his post commands respect, makes interesting reading and he has a sensible point of view. I work more on “time figures” to find the answers and in Kameko we may have a slightly under rated animal. All his four starts last year were solid and he raised the bar in winning the futurity at Newcastle. Being on the a.w. many people may undervalue the form but the race was run at a solid gallop throughout ( the O’Brien brigade made sure of that no doubt trying to set it up for the “Galileo Gang”). Kameko traveled well under cover and produced a turn of foot that soon finished the contest. There is a worry about the course as he may not have handled the dip too well on his previous try over c/d. For me he ran a bit free ” choke out” that day and probably got too much daylight too early. If he can be switched off, find sufficient cover and travel in a race that is historically run at a decent gallop then I also believe he is a cracking alternative to the favourite and merits serious e.w. consideration.
Andrew Balding today…. “He looks magnificent and he’s a lovely horse to have anything to do with. We’re all very excited.” Oisin Murphy…. “He goes to Newmarket with a massive chance”
Not hanging on connection comments but always nice to hear something so positive at this stage.
Thanks for the comments sandman, @Jack as well I think he would’ve liked the surface more than the others for sure, but his grass form is decent if not spectacular as well. I think personally the bookies have over reacted to it being on AW. There is no way of knowing that had that race been run on grass that you wouldn’t have got the same result, perhaps for reasons Sandman points out. Let’s say this, had it been run on grass he’d be a 5/1 shot surely so I do think he’s value now. Roaring Lion was superb on grass so there is no stand out reason that Kameko is better suited on AW really. The flat nature of the track is a concern a bit I guess but again 12/14s is value for me, both the last 2 Guineas winners had won the trophy Stakes.
It’s also relevant to consider what else is in the race and Kameko would be my second favourite in the market.
I’ve heard rumours Al Madhar is a better horse than Threat, Jack but that’s a massive leap of faith for me and surely if he is we would see it a bit later in the season once he’s developed more. He would have to be some special horse to feature after just one run. Can be done obviously, see Golan, but it’s a massive punt in the dark surely? Galileo in the bloodline though!!
@captainrobbo I’d give Positive a squeak at decent odds as I don’t think he’d have liked the ground in the Middle Park. His form still is a little short and his breeding is a bit suspect, I think he’ll be better over a bit shorter personally. He’s drifted out to over 70s on the exchanges as well
It’s also relevant to consider what else is in the race and Kameko would be my second favourite in the market.
I can certainly see that, with Arizona having run the 7 times, you’d expect others to have more improvement. I do find it a very hard race to actually have a bet in with Pinatubo in there. I’ve said it already above, but the horses Kameko beat (easily granted!) are really middle distance horses and i just find it hard to work him out. Possible he’s just jumped forward + should be half his price.
I’ve heard rumours Al Madhar is a better horse than Threat, Jack but that’s a massive leap of faith for me and surely if he is we would see it a bit later in the season once he’s developed more. He would have to be some special horse to feature after just one run. Can be done obviously, see Golan, but it’s a massive punt in the dark surely? Galileo in the bloodline though!!
Massive punt in the dark, Hannon has previous of getting one ready to go close, and we just don’t know how good/bad he is. 33/1 to find out in a race, that in theory Pinatubo could be winning by 3 or 4. I wasn’t that crazy about many of the 2yos last year, alright Pinatubo was one of the best probably we’ll see for sometime, but the remainder to me, just didn’t excite me. Probably won’t see his true best here as you say, and it’ll be further down the line!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I read an article recently that the Kameko form on the AW should be taken with a pinch of salt because, being a Kittens Joy, there’s likelihood he would’ve been more suited by race conditions than others in the race.
If this is true Frenchys argument he should be 5-1 I wouldn’t agree with as his rating may be overblown based on that win.
My own ew fancy for this Wichita finished comfortably ahead of Positive in the Dewhurst and is 20-1. Positive beat Kameko on grass and Kameko is 12-1. Aiden O Brien has won 4 of the last 5 renewals and no stranger at getting horses ready first time on opening classic weekends to do the business whereas other trainers may have looked at preps but due to the virus weren’t able to. Kameko may be too fresh first time and improve as the season develops, possibly over 10 furlongs. Of course there is the “what is coming over from the AOB yard” to add into the mix.
Time will tell.
Positive was sent off 3rd favourite for the dewhurst. The trainer had no explanation for the poor run. Perhaps he isn’t as good on soft ground. He is bred to make a 3yo and should improve this season.
If you forgive him his dewhurst run then he looks quite solid. His sire Dutch Art was 3rd in the Guineas and was the only horse in the first 6 home who raced on the far side not the stands side so had he have gone on the stands side and had a kinder draw for that year then he probably would have won it. His dam sire was Makfi who won the Guineas impressively.
There’s a lot to like about Positive and the 40/1 ew looks very tempting. I’m hoping the price will hold as I won’t bet til a bit closer to the race.
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