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Jason weaver pointed out he looks way more developed than other 2yos and he wouldnt be certain to train on. That was a freakish win and he looked amazing. Im sure he’ll win the 2000 guineas but after that not so sure. How many winter certainties for the guineas dont develop. I go back to try my best who looked like a monster but didnt deliver.Too darn hot etc etc. Lets just enjoy the horse and come next may who knows.
I agree mickey, it’s probably more likely he isn’t a freakish good horse than he is(talking about next year obviously).
Think CA already said they are looking at the Dewhurst anyway didn’t he? Makes no sense to me to put him away for the year as he’s clearly the best 2year old by a million miles!
I say connections are right to run Pinatubo in the Dewhurst . Strike while the iron is hot .
A word to the wise .Those of us old enough to remember Bernarnd Van Cutsems’star 2 year old Crowned Prince ( thumped Rheingold in the Dewhurst ) , will recall how the racing press and punters went overboard about him and how he would clean up as a 3 year old . Never happened .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Spot on Jack, Pinatubo got 134 for yesterday’s performance.
I should have said could be “on the verge”. According to Timeform, Pinatubo has already put up a better two year old Timeform rating than Frankel, Gladiateur. As far as I can remember – yesterday was the best two year old performance this early in the season that I’ve seen in my racing lifetime (I’m 53)… Although Pinatubo doesn’t have much in the way of physical scope for next year (extremely unlikely to ever reach Frankel’s career best of 147) has progressed every start so far at two… Therefore a pretty good chance can up that 134 further in the Dewhurst if allowed to do so. Whether it will be enough to top Windy City’s 142 is questionable; imo less likely than likely. However, if progressing at the same rate as he’s done on each start to date will achieve that hallmark. 19 lbs first to second start, then 10, 10 and last time out 9 lbs.Value Is EverythingI think it is a question of is he the archetypal fully developed 2yr old right now that might not have much improvement in him from 2-3 (say an Arazi type) compared to the less developed ones that will grow/strengthen much more and close the gap by the time the 2000g comes around.
I would also be just a little wary about the Dewhurst more on the fact that it is late in the year and it will be his 6th run in a season which started on 10 May, he may well have the laid back attitude and show all the signs that another run will not be an issue but it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if he did blow out as horse can going over the top extremely quickly late in the year.
Remember back to Frankel’s Dewhurst when Drean Ahead & Godolphin’s Saamidd (who unfortunately before the race got labelled as an equine version of Pegasus) blew out spectacularly after impressive runs prior.
53 ginger. Must be a typo, I had you down as low 40s, you look so well for someone that gambles for a living.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Always looked young for my age, Nathan; gingers do.
When carpet fitting (working for my Dad’s business) I was once asked “do you want to be a carpet fitter when you grow up”?I was 36.
…And replied “No, I want to bet on horses for a living”.
Value Is EverythingNot likely to turn up (probably bound for the Middle Park) but Siskin would be a very interesting runner especially on quick ground – I would say Aiden will most likely take him on again with a few and maybe Hannon will be tempted to run either Mums Tipple or Threat.
ive backed Palace Pier 20-1 and he runs shortly. He is entered in the Dewhurst dunno if he will go there.
I’ve taken 9/2 for Pinatubo to finish the 2020 Season unbeaten (min 3 runs) starting with The 2000 Guineas and hoping it goes ahead.
So disappointed not to be at Newmarket cheering him home.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...On the RP site they said in an article about Fabre taking Alson to Newmarket for the Guineas, that Earthlight was taking a break. Is that actually confirmed anywhere? I haven’t seen any confirmation he is, although he’s drifting badly on oddschecker so looks likely.
A little fishy if it’s true, I think GT called this last year, would not be surprised if Earthlight picks up a mysterious knock before Newmarket to avoid a clash.
Hasn’t he already Frenchy? He had a slight injury which made him miss a “clash” with stablemate under same owners. Yes that’s fishy, but i’d guess that might make them rethink what his next run is? Straight into a G1 off a knock wouldn’t be ideal, even if it’s against overs on their reappearance?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I mean I think it was GT that said last year that he wouldn’t be surprised if Earthlight missed the Guineas due to a mystery knock and lo and behold it happened!
What about the French Guineas then? Why wouldn’t they just run him there if they don’t want him and Pinatubo to clash?
I’ve just read your initial post on Earthlight again.
He picked up a knock and missed his reappearance, so I think the RP are speculating, as it isn’t a Fabre quote! I presume the drift is in line with the fact that he’s been mentioned as having a knock by Fabre.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!They might! Still 4/1 for that. I just think when you look at the bigger picture these days and if Earthlight is good which I think he is then why risk screwing up Pinatubo’s golden run so far.
We will never know of course, pure speculation but I would not be surprised one bit!
He picked up the knock a while ago, it was only this week did he start wildly drifting in the market so someone knows something somewhere but I can’t find any Fabre actual quote anywhere.
Jac
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