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Jac; when I saw the rain on the telly t was deja vu and I just thought ‘I know what that’s like’…
Having slept on it and had a good look back this morning, some thoughts…..
1) Is there a rule about how stalls should set up? I just noticed that Newmarket had a row of stalls 1-14 then another one 15-19 with a 2 stall width gap in between. Name the Wind in stall 13 made an immediate move into the middle group creating the initial clear split. Azano (15) then went right across Sporting Chance (14) and taking them both into the middle group, leaving Dark Vision(16) briefly on his own before making a fatal move right instead of left.
My question on that though is, who are actually responsible for the stalls? Is it upto the course or are there guidelines? I really hope someone looks at that and realises that they created or at least helped to create an unsatisfactory Guineas with a) the way the stalls were positioned and b) the silly way they were set up.
No-one wants to see a duff result in a classic we’d waited so long to see regardless of who bet on who.
2) There are a couple of jockey comments afterwards that said they could see the near side had a massive advantage after 2-3F. Why at that point could the leaders, Azano and Kick On not try to inject more pace into their field? It certainly would’ve helped Kick On to have injected a bit more pace at this point no?
Robert Havlin’s comments here https://www.racingpost.com/news/newmarket-reports/pace-and-tactics-crucial-as-stands-side-dominates-2-000-guineas-finish/379189
on Azano suggested they couldn’t because they were already going at a decent gallop, as well as suggesting the ground was better on the rail. It did also appear like that from watching the kick up on the tele. Also the time was slow by 1.84s, even though Magna Grecia appeared to win so well off a fast pace.All this adds up to the ground being slow and slower in the middle after the heavy rain showers hit.
Therefore, I’m not going to discount Madhmoon because he didn’t get his optimum conditions again. He looked so good winning the Beresford on GF and he’s not run on it since. It goes back to a conversation I was reading with great interest last year GT about Dee Ex Bee after the Derby if you remember. I’m not saying Madhmoon can’t act on that surface yesterday, I’m just suggesting to get the best run out of him, it needs to be GF. Of course he might not have trained on as hoped from 2 to 3, but until we see that again it’s hard to say that’s his level with confidence.
All that now said, reading the jockey comments this morning, it appears as though Madhmoon is going to go down the Derby route, so we will never know! I can’t have him for the Derby at all, I just don’t see that. 10F maybe, but 12F around Epsom, no chance for me.
Mike, if comparing Madhmoon and Skardu, I like Skardu, I had a late partial saver on him in this. He did run a decent race, but for me he’s still a decent horse beating largely average horses, I don’t see a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner there yet. The Craven form is rubbish, that got confirmed yesterday and looking at RPRs yesterday, even if you upgrade the middle group by 2-3Lbs, they still wouldn’t reach King of Change’s 115. 115 is the joint worst runner up RRP in this century of the Guineas! It’s fair to say that was a rubbish Guineas all round!
In terms of trends, it was a good result, apart from King of Change, the 3rd and 4th were strong on the trends and the winner was as well, based on the condition that you discount a particular trend if the horse has proved it already, ie. Magna Grecia broke a 20year sire trend to win yesterday, but he had already proven himself over 8F so that trend can be discounted when looking at that particular horse. I think that was a point agreed on here! So it was a good result on the trends, which keeps me happy that it is a decent workable system I look at!
Frenchy, i tried to find an interview with Prendergast i saw a few months back but cannot find it now. From what i distinctly remember of it was, that because of the closeness of the Irish Guineas to the Derby they would go the English route only if they thought he could be a Derby horse. If not the other route.
Not saying he is but interesting none the less.
Jockeys and trainers talking balls (excuses) about the difference in groups. There wasn’t much between them at halfway. If the second horse had been one of the favourites people would not be challenging the result so much… And yet shortly after halfway Key Of Change was alongside the front runners of the larger group (including the likes of Rob Havlin). Witness Simon Rowlands:
https://twitter.com/rowleyfilerrr?lang=en
There may have been a slight advantage in pace, but only very slight. As for a going advantage, well that was blown out of the water by a subsequent race… When all runners came to the stand rail it was those on the outer (towards the middle of the track) that proved successful. So there was no draw advantage.
Value Is EverythingI think the later race you refer to was the one Pogo won, where if there was a clear advantage Fox leiecster should of romped it…. Shine so bright did seem to set a better pace and Magna made it count just past the 3 pole…
T thought TS did well to run the race it did but looked knackered at the line…So jockey error then GT in answer to my question about why did The jockeys on Azano and/or Kick On not inject some pace to catch up after half way? I’m trying to understand why they didn’t. I didn’t see the other race but it’s still a bit fanciful to suggest there wasn’t a draw bias considering a 66/1 shot off a very low rating ran on that side of the track and came second. Could be a coincidence perhaps sure, we’ll never quite know. I do also accept it is entirely possible the horses in the middle just weren’t good enough, but for meit’s still a bit fanciful there wasn’t any draw bias.
Botchy if he does go the derby route I’ll go nowhere near him, he won’t stay. In fact if he does and not the Irish Guineas/SJP route I’ll be happy to conclude he hasn’t trained on as hoped and he doesn’t have enough speed at a mile now a 3yr old.
Draw bias – as in the ground being faster on the stand side – no Frenchy. There may be a very slight pace advantage in that Shine So Bright went an even (perfect) pace. Those in the middle (or at least those at the front of that group) weren’t far off perfect either. Sectional time experts examine race times of every horse, seeing how each fraction of the race was run; ie Whether each horse’s first quarter was quicker than the middle quarters or final quarter. If the centre group had gone a lot slower early you’d expect them to be closing (albeit too late) at the finish. According to sectional time experts they weren’t making any inroads on those you believe were advantaged.
Jockey error? Not really, just the way the race was run. Why didn’t the centre go the same pace as Shine So Bright? Well the quickest way to get from A to B is not necessarily by going quicker early on. It’s where the best pace is. ie Every jockey knows the quickest way of getting from gates to line is by doing equal fractions. Therefore, those heading the centre group may well have thought Shine So Bright was going too fast! Alternatively, both Ryan on Ten Sovereigns and Rob Havlin on Azano (the leaders on that side ignoring Emaraaty Ana who did go too fast) were on doubtful stayers… And that fact is important to note. It was in their best interests to eek out their stamina by going as slow as possible for everyone behind them, before (in theory) using their speed when kicking for home. In other words they tried to play the percentages by taking a chance on the stand side trio coming back to them. But as I say, the difference in pace was nowhere near as much as jockeys and trainers of beaten horses made out. Key Of Change level with the centre group leaders at halfway.
Value Is EverythingOk that makes sense, in fact when it’s analysed like that you could say Ryan on TS helped set it up for Magna Grecia by slowing the pace of the centre group a bit! It doesn’t explain Kick On though? We were all hoping he would go on, could he have injected a bit more pace? If he didn’t because he thought shine so bright was going too quick then ultimately that is jockey error? Maybe that’s a bit harsh but ideally you would think that he’d want Kick On ahead of Magna Grecia no? At half way he’s about 1.5L behind him. Do you think Oisin looks back at it today and thinks he’d do something different? Or maybe he was doing it on purpose as I think they said they were using it partly as a trial for the French Derby? It’s still a big coincidence that a 66/1 no hoper came second drawn on that side by the way, but coincidences happen! Magna Grecia On this analysis should be nailed on for the Irish 2000 you’d think no? Surely they’ll run pacemakers this time
It doesn’t explain Kick On though?
True
We were all hoping he would go on, could he have injected a bit more pace?
Yes
If he didn’t because he thought shine so bright was going too quick then ultimately that is jockey error?
Yes
Maybe that’s a bit harsh but ideally you would think that he’d want Kick On ahead of Magna Grecia no?
Yes
At half way he’s about 1.5L behind him. Do you think Oisin looks back at it today and thinks he’d do something different?
Yes
…Or maybe “probably” would be more acurate than “yes” to all. Things happen to change plans. I backed Kick On expecting him to be the leader, but tbh he (the horse) got a bit up tight beforehand and Oisin may have thought Kick On might overdo it if in front.
Although to be fair Kick On didn’t show enough to suggest he’d have been close even if things went ideally.
Value Is EverythingNathan pleaaase change your avatar back to the one and only
I think he gave you reason enough tonight
the Forum won’t let me Hein, I tried a few days ago and again just now
I’ve said time and time again Klopp is a genius
need to finish the job now…Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Well, that’s a pity and I don’t quite understand this.
His photo was accepted beforehand, so why shouldn’t it go now?
Best of luck for the final, they really deserve this title, as for me they are the British version of the BVB at better days (which of course is a wild interpretation)The forum would let me as such
I think it’s another bug…
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
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