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Rip van winkle drifting alarmingly on Betfair, has been clear 7 fav for months now 12 4th fav behind Crowded House!
I gave you guys Quevega for cheltenham, 7/2 at the time and i got the 2,000 guineas winner in my pocket ,I will tell you a week before the race ,and he wont be Fav by then i hope
I gave you guys Quevega for cheltenham, 7/2 at the time and i got the 2,000 guineas winner in my pocket ,I will tell you a week before the race ,and he wont be Fav by then i hope
does it have the letter M in it?
Palerider, you oughtn’t to take credit for Quevega – someone tipped it at a much bigger price than that (Irish Stamp).
PS, how many double vowels does it have in it?
Palerider, you oughtn’t to take credit for Quevega – someone tipped it at a much bigger price than that (Irish Stamp).
PS, how many double vowels does it have in it?
I have to give you the credit ( IRISH STAMP ) well done mate
Oxx has confirmed Arazan on target for the race and likely to go straight there as the dates of the Leopardstown trials don’t suit. Rayeni has had ‘a little setback’ and won’t run before May.
Did the Rip Van Winkle drift plateau at all?
It’s going to take a few whispers about a Guineas contender adding a few gears over the Winter, and returning to trackwork like a machine, and he’ll be shortened up into favourite IMO.
Did the Rip Van Winkle drift plateau at all?
It’s going to take a few whispers about a Guineas contender adding a few gears over the Winter, and returning to trackwork like a machine, and he’ll be shortened up into favourite IMO.
MD, Rip van drifted out to 15 last week but has come back down steadily
to a current 11, what is interesting is that the "Master" has come into clear
8 fav from 10.5 last week! (Naaqoos solid 10 and Crowded house solid 9)
Now what that tells me is that both the Master and Rip Van did a piece of work on Saturday morning, probably over 6f with their lead horse Sea of marmara, i would guess Johnny boy was on the Master and Seamus was on Rip van, Sea would have taken them along at a pretty good clip, bearing in mind we are into March, Master will have effortlessly passed his lead horse and quickened like the class horse he is leaving Rip van
wondering why he hadn"t filled his frame over the winter like his stable companion had! Aidan will take him into the "Red" zone before too long
and then we will see a flood of money for this years 2000 gns winner!MASTERCRAFTSMAN, is obviously sharpening his tools on the gallops
ready for his day of reckoning and if money talks he will be going off favourite at Newmarket!I have been watching this thread since you started it and wonder when someone would cotton on to the fact there’s a horse called Crowded House in the race. Friggo seems to be the only one apart from myself who saw the way he improved rapidly last season.
You GW have been prattling on about Mastercraftsman like he was something extraordinary. He looked no more like a 2000 guineas winner than flying in the air when he beat Shaweel and is grossly underpriced.
There was no great confidence behind him when he won the National Stakes and even less when he won the Phoenix Stakes suggesting he isn’t that highly regarded by APO.
The very name AOP would have a donkey as fav for the guieas at thius stage.
I suggest if Crowded House was trained by him and not Brian Meehan he would be a 2/1 shot for the guineas. He looks a much more exciting prospect than Mastercraftsmen who took forever to get the better of Shaweel then was put firmly in his place Naqoos at Lanchamp. Prior to that he strugled to beat a very moderate horse in a group 2.
I reckon you have done your money big time and the horse has absolutely no chance.
I notice there has been much talk in the thread on whether Rip Van Winkle is a sprinter or a Derby horse. Common sense tells you that unless AOP is a complete idiot he unlikely to be a sprinter type. He was thrown in at 7 furlongs immediately and there was never any question of him running over 5 and 6 firlongs. Where you get some of your ideas is beyond me.
I would have thought the main question should be is he good enough to win the guineas and the simple answer to that IMO is possibly but again he’s far from a good thing and being trained by AOB underpriced.
It’s very difficult to gauge the strength of the form of Naqoos but he looked a calls above the O’Brian horse who he beat fair and square. 8/1 seems big but only because Mastercraftman is too short.
I’m sticking with Crowed House who probably has to improve to win but still looked pretty green when flying past a half decent field in the Racing Post and making them look like their feet were nailed to the floor.
Obviously the fancied him a bit at lowly Kempton where he won as he liked but looked very green when beaten at Newmarket. I think BM was shocked at the improvemnt the horse made in a relatively short space of time and didn’t realise what he had on his hands. He knows now though and with natural improvement and an unquestionable devasting turn of foot I can’t see Mastercraftsman who looks workmanlike to me living with him in a finish.
I think a true book for this should be more like:
Crowded House 9/2
Naqoos 11/2
Rip Van Winkle 9/1
Mastercraftsman 12/1It’s can be a horrible decease that AOB fever and that’s about how I see there chances.
Fist how can you state that Mastercraftsman has "absolutely no chance". He’s a big, scopey horse trained by a master who should relish likely conditions at Newmarket. That said I do agree with you that he doesn’t have a level of form upto now that is good enough to win him a Guineas but to be fair find me one horse that does. This time last year New Approach as a two year old had run to a different level to any two year old of last year. The Guineas market is wide open and you can see why truth is no-one not even the bookies have any real idea what is likely to win the Guineas. Mastercraftsman I agree is underpriced.
Rip Van Winkle is drifting like the proverbial barge and its no surprise. If this horse was trained by anyone else he would be 20/1 for the Guineas. None of his form is remotely good enough to be the price he is. There’s always been this sort of half rumour that he was O’Brien’s number one hope last season and he’s been hugely overvalued because of that. The reason questions are being asked about him being a possible sprinter is because thats what he looked like in the Dewhurst. He was held up and should’ve been expected to at least be running on towards the end of the race but he didn’t he flattened out like a horse with nothing left. It may have been his condition and he may turn out to be a stayer time will tell (his breeding suggests it could go either way) its not easy to judge some two year olds.
Naaqoos has group one winning form from France last year but again it doesn’t ammount to a great deal. It was a group one contest but there was nothing in that race that really looked genuine group one class. It wasn’t as strong a G1 as the previous seasons G1’s by a long way it probably equates to a group 3 race. That said he can only beat what he has to face. He would be a consideration for the Guineas and I can see why he’s prominant in the market (because there’s nothing to get anyone excited).
Crowded House was visually mightily impressive at Doncaster. That turn of foot made him appear to have a gear no other two year old has …….. here’s the but. The Racing Post Trophy is usually contested by staying types. The race on paper looked poor and it could’ve been that Crowded House was made to look better than he is by beating merely average staying types. I agree though Fist he looks an improver and his form from last year was on a par with anything else so like Naqoos I can see why he’d be fancied for the Guineas.
I wouldn’t say anything has "absolutely no chance" given the open nature of this contest but the one I would lay is Rip Van Winkle.
Market moves nearer the time of the race may prove a significant guide this year.
Throughout around 99% of last season, I was so unsure about what 2 Y O took my fancy. I remember being very impressed by Art Connoisseur after he won the coventry but he went off the boil later and I struggled to find a horse who I could truly admire … that is until Crowded House won the RPT with, what I can only describe as, a venomous turn of foot. Since then, I’ve been eagerly awaiting him.
Honestly, I can envisage Crowded House routing everything in this year’s 2000 … even his name has a ring to it! Personally, I suspect he’s gonna be one of those rare horses who can adapt from 8 to 12 furlongs.Crowded House is definitely my horse for the guineas and I’m gonna at least slap £50 on him.
As mentioned, it might be the fact the RPT usually delivers us a Classic horse for Epsom and not Newmarket. Then again, most of us have declared he won’t get 1m4f, so we’re probably being ignorant.
Most of all, it’s been mentioned his seasonal debut will be the Dante Stakes.
Crowded House was visually mightily impressive at Doncaster. That turn of foot made him appear to have a gear no other two year old has …….. here’s the but. The Racing Post Trophy is usually contested by staying types. The race on paper looked poor and it could’ve been that Crowded House was made to look better than he is by beating merely average staying types.
Remember though Ian, Crowded House isn’t
totally
reliant on his RP Trophy form. He was also second in what is quite arguably the strongest 2-y-o race of last year in the Timeform Million.
Most of all, it’s been mentioned his seasonal debut will be the Dante Stakes.
Myles,
At last update I’m aware of (last week IIRC), Brian Meehan hadn’t decided on whether Crowded House’s seasonal debut would be the Guineas or the Dante. I personally don’t see why the horse shouldn’t run in the Guineas, if he doesn’t it would sadly be a case of pedigree suppositions being taken over empirical racecourse evidence IMO (either that or stablemate Delegator’s a certainty at Newmarket!
)I have been watching this thread since you started it and wonder when someone would cotton on to the fact there’s a horse called Crowded House in the race. Friggo seems to be the only one apart from myself who saw the way he improved rapidly last season.
You GW have been prattling on about Mastercraftsman like he was something extraordinary. He looked no more like a 2000 guineas winner than flying in the air when he beat Shaweel and is grossly underpriced.
There was no great confidence behind him when he won the National Stakes and even less when he won the Phoenix Stakes suggesting he isn’t that highly regarded by APO.
The very name AOP would have a donkey as fav for the guieas at thius stage.
I suggest if Crowded House was trained by him and not Brian Meehan he would be a 2/1 shot for the guineas. He looks a much more exciting prospect than Mastercraftsmen who took forever to get the better of Shaweel then was put firmly in his place Naqoos at Lanchamp. Prior to that he strugled to beat a very moderate horse in a group 2.
I reckon you have done your money big time and the horse has absolutely no chance.
I notice there has been much talk in the thread on whether Rip Van Winkle is a sprinter or a Derby horse. Common sense tells you that unless AOP is a complete idiot he unlikely to be a sprinter type. He was thrown in at 7 furlongs immediately and there was never any question of him running over 5 and 6 firlongs. Where you get some of your ideas is beyond me.
I would have thought the main question should be is he good enough to win the guineas and the simple answer to that IMO is possibly but again he’s far from a good thing and being trained by AOB underpriced.
It’s very difficult to gauge the strength of the form of Naqoos but he looked a calls above the O’Brian horse who he beat fair and square. 8/1 seems big but only because Mastercraftman is too short.
I’m sticking with Crowed House who probably has to improve to win but still looked pretty green when flying past a half decent field in the Racing Post and making them look like their feet were nailed to the floor.
Obviously the fancied him a bit at lowly Kempton where he won as he liked but looked very green when beaten at Newmarket. I think BM was shocked at the improvemnt the horse made in a relatively short space of time and didn’t realise what he had on his hands. He knows now though and with natural improvement and an unquestionable devasting turn of foot I can’t see Mastercraftsman who looks workmanlike to me living with him in a finish.
I think a true book for this should be more like:
Crowded House 9/2
Naqoos 11/2
Rip Van Winkle 9/1
Mastercraftsman 12/1It’s can be a horrible decease that AOB fever and that’s about how I see there chances.
FIST, its that horrible it could kill eh! your post is as lacking in scope as
Crowded house! I shall let Mastercraftsman do the talking!!Good idea we would probaby get more sense out the horse
Quite simply I can’t see what he has done to impress you so much. He certainly hasn’t showed the turn of foot normally assiciated with 2000 guineas winners.
I suppose he could be good enough to grind them into the ground if AOB can produce one of his magic tricks but there just has to be something out there better than him.
Having bet him at longer odds EW I presume you would hope that you would be colleiting
But s they stand I think Crowded House at 8’s is the best value in the race and probably the best horse.
Just can’t believe AOB’s is the best 3 year old in town.
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