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Mastercraftsman beats a subsequent two time Group 1 winner 5 lengths in the Phoenix Stakes and the form doesn’t work out? Then you go on to say Shaweel has a great chance if he comes back to last seasons form, while at the same time you use Shaweel to knock Mastercraftsmans rating? The Prix Jean Luc is open to different interpretation, I’d be inclined to go with the AOB explanation on that one.
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Art Connoiseur. Anyone with eyes could see that Art Connoiseur did not run his race that day. He subsequently proved to have lost his way completely as the season went on.Art Connoisseur only had one more race after the Phoenix and that was on unsuitable ground. So saying he lost his way is a little bit excessive. I agree, his run in Ireland wasn`t up to the same level he showed in the Coventry. But McM caned him by close to five lengths, so it`s hardly a knock on the Ballydoyle colt.
Mastercraftsman beats a subsequent two time Group 1 winner 5 lengths in the Phoenix Stakes and the form doesn’t work out? Then you go on to say Shaweel has a great chance if he comes back to last seasons form, while at the same time you use Shaweel to knock Mastercraftsmans rating? The Prix Jean Luc is open to different interpretation, I’d be inclined to go with the AOB explanation on that one.
No Cav I actually said of Shaweel-
Shaweel (if he runs) 118 – Would have a great chance if the ground was good, the pace is strong and he comes back to last seasons sort of form
Shaweel raced on similar ground to the national stakes on saturday, over the same trip and how did he run? Not very well. Lets just say it is very questionable just how strong the national stakes form is, not just on how Shaweel went on saturday but on how Mastercraftsman ran in his following race. However on what I saw of Shaweel last season overall I would think that good ground and a fast pace at 1 mile should be right up his street if in the same form as he was in then. That is very different to what you reading into what I’m saying.
What bushranger won afterwards is insignificant when you bear in mind that he didnt run his race that day, and the fact he went on to turn that form on its head suggests that the form didnt work out. There is more to form working out than just beaten horses finding improvement. If you think Bushranger ran to form then you must have MasterC on about 130 or so for his phoenix win. And if you admit to Bushranger having run below form and subsequently proving much better then surely you must agree that the form didnt quite work out.
Of course, AOB is always a good source of info when his horses run badly, he just tells it like it is and doesnt worry about the impact on stud fees.
Surely you cant compare a Shaweel having his 8th race of a 2008 campaign with a Shaweel having his first run in 6 months for new connections particularly when its Godolphin?
Would have a
great chance
if the ground was good, the pace is strong and
he comes back to last seasons sort of form
Shaweels 2nd best form ratings wise from last year was a beating from Mastercraftsman? How can you then use Shaweel to knock the very horse who beat him??
Beating good horses who have an off day does not necessarily make the winner overrated, particularly when that winner goes on to win a Group 1 beating a horse who has a ¨great chance¨ according to yourself.
AOB can BS with the best of them, shouldn’t prevent anyone from filtering it though.
Bulwark, if you think the ground for the national stakes was anything like newbury on saturday then no offence pal,but im glad your not a clerk of a racecourse.The grd for the national stakes was alwful bad grd,even john oxx stated that he had never seen the grd that bad at the curragh.It took a lot of guts and class for MCM to win that race like he did.Look how shaweel ran in the dewhurst he ran well not beaten that far,its just possible that he hasnt trained on and that could be the reason he ran like he did on saturday
Surely you cant compare a Shaweel having his 8th race of a 2008 campaign with a Shaweel having his first run in 6 months for new connections particularly when its Godolphin?
Would have a
great chance
if the ground was good, the pace is strong and
he comes back to last seasons sort of form
Shaweels 2nd best form ratings wise from last year was a beating from Mastercraftsman? How can you then use Shaweel to knock the very horse who beat him??
Beating good horses who have an off day does not necessarily make the winner overrated, particularly when that winner goes on to win a Group 1 beating a horse who has a ¨great chance¨ according to yourself.
AOB can BS with the best of them, shouldn’t prevent anyone from filtering it though.
By highlighting only select words from my post you are only chosing to filter out of it what you wish. The most important words in that sentence are:
Would have a great chance if
the ground was good, the pace is strong
and he comes back to last seasons sort of form
The two bits youve left out.
IMO Shaweel wants good ground and a test similar to a 1mile-1m2f 3yo race. He got good ground in the gimcrack but only 6f, he got a 2yo 7f (pretty much what he wanted then distancewise) but no good ground in the National Stakes and he got the same again in the Dewhurst (obviously the Dewhurst was on the opposite end of the going scale from the national stakes though).
IMO all shaweels form of last season is on unsuitable conditions (either distancewise or groundwise), and if the ground at newmarket is good, I think on the balance of what form he did show on unsuitable conditions the he could run a stormer, but would only really fancy him if the ground was good, and as I only ever bet the guineas antepost for gd-fm, I havent uincluded Shaweel to my bets for the guineas, but he is on the shortlist.
Bulwark, if you think the ground for the national stakes was anything like newbury on saturday then no offence pal,but im glad your not a clerk of a racecourse.The grd for the national stakes was alwful bad grd,even john oxx stated that he had never seen the grd that bad at the curragh.It took a lot of guts and class for MCM to win that race like he did.Look how shaweel ran in the dewhurst he ran well not beaten that far,its just possible that he hasnt trained on and that could be the reason he ran like he did on saturday
New york I hope the above also explains your post too, the ground at newbury is not the exact same ground as the curragh but it is similar in the sense that I believe it falls outside the threshold of what I believe to be Shaweels optimal conditions, and the fact that that the National Stakes ground is actually further outside that threshold than newbury only bolsters the point I was making, becaus ein theory shaweel should have run better at newbury than the national stakes.
I didnt use Shaweel solely to knock the National Stakes form, what I said was that the strength of the form (ie the 118 ratings of the first two home) is very much questionable bearing in mind that neither have upheld that rating since, and shaweel ran on "similar" ground the other day.
Mstercraftsman was rated 120 for beating what was supposedly an in form Coventry winner- Art Connoiseur. Anyone with eyes could see that Art Connoiseur did not run his race that day.
That reminds me of when Doyoun beat Warning by four lengths a few years ago in the Craven. Warning wasn’t himself that day.
Your using Shaweels run on Saturday to discredit Mastercraftsman
Shaweel raced on similar ground to the national stakes on saturday, over the same trip and how did he run? Not very well. Lets just say it is very questionable just how strong the national stakes form is,
but using the same conditions in the same race to excuse Shaweels performance
IMO Shaweel wants good ground and a test similar to a 1mile-1m2f 3yo race
.
The Gimcrack was run on Good to Soft.
Confusing stuff. Still with the 15 or so horses you’ve given favourable mentions to over the last 9 pages I’m sure you’ll find the winner anyway. No argument there.
By my recollection the ground in the Gimcrack was gd/gd-gft, and if you check back to the gimcrack thread I put Shaweel up for that as the only one I thought likely to be suited to conditions on that day.
Furthermore, I havent put up 15 horses for this, I put up a shortlist of 11 ages ago, and round that down to 7 on the same thread (and that was ages ago before any of the trials or significant market moves, when I first properly looked at this race). I always bet the guineas for gd-fm and I have bet 4 of those 7 horses for gd-fm (Delegataor @ 40-1, Cityscape @ 33-1, Intense Focus @ 25-1 and Lord Shanakill @ 33-1) that doesnt mean that I cant acknowledge what will have a chance if those conditions dont come up, and on different conditions there are other horses I would give a chance too.
The only one who I like for gd-fm and havent backed is evasive as just dont think he’s a nice price, and would be gutted if he wins. As far as I know if one of those 4 wins then it is perfectly mathematically sound to still make a profit. Using my methods there is usually more than one horse that has a chance and it is a matter of just rounding down which are worth betting.
Obviously if I use your method of just backing whatever AOB fields (which admittedly does have a decent enough strike rate over the last decade or so) then Im only going to be limited to a couple of horses because your shortlist could only ever have consisted of Westphalia/RVW and Mastercrafstman. However I didnt actually like either of AOBs contenders this year, so they werent on my shortlist, but I can see that going against AOB seems to clash with your methods of picking this race, and theres very little I can do about that, I’ll just read a race the way I see it.
AOB could well still win (RVW looking the more likely of his pair to do so IMO) but I’ll be against them as neither float my boat on everything Ive seen. However had RVW been 40-1 with delegator I would probably have had a go, but he was always much shorter despite finishing behind him in the dewhurst, because of the AOB factor, so I went against him as he never looked a bet at his price, on what he’d done. As everything stands, if Delegator gets placed at 40s then Im happy enough, if any of the 4 win then happy days.
However I dont think it is really necessary to get into exagerations or word twisting to try proving a point. Lets just leave it to the horse discussions I say.
Zacinto for me at the prices…..
Backed Art Connoiseur earler in the year….
Westphalia and Mastercraftsman…if the 2000 Guineas comes up with give in the ground I would definatley give them a good chace…..
It would be foolish to rule out Jim Bolger trained Dewhurst winner Intense Focus
Cityscape…Has a good chance
Lord Shanakill…..He’s the one to beat
Shaweel…..Would have a great chance etc…
Delegator…..Looks sure to put in a solid performance
Keeping an eye on Ashram
Arazan…Wouldnt write off
Evasive…Very likeable sort for this raceCouldnt care what you back, I was searching through this thread to try find some pointers to what will win the guineas. You’ve mentioned 8 of the first 12 in the market ffs.
Word twisting and exaggerations…..Where did I ever mention my method was ¨just backing whatever AOB fields¨??
As for your recollection….
Priceless.
In this lull before the storm, I’d like to publicly thank Friggo for giving Delegator a namecheck on 7 Nov. I put £1.54 on at 75 and 46p at 70 at Christmas. Although I won’t make any money, it is nice to have backed the favourite at those prices, and it covers my indiscretions in the race – well, until I get stuck into exactas and trifectas on the day.
edit: Also, the markets are closed for this race at the moment because of the forfeit stage. When will Weatherbys make their announcement – today or tomorrow?
Cavelino Rampante wrote:
Confusing stuff. Still with the
15 or so horses
you’ve given favourable mentions to
over the last 9 pages
I’m sure you’ll find the winner anyway. No argument there
Backed Art Connoiseur earler in the year….
I forgot all about Art Connoiseur as backed him last year before the abissmal phoneix stakes run at like 14-1, an easy mistake as was only looking at the
last nine pages
(and its been a long time since Ive actually thought of him with any confidence). However your quote is not from the last 9 pages as you mentioned.
Zacinto for me at the prices…..
Also forgot I have Zacincto included in a speculative lucky 15 done ages ago, once again, an easy mistake when I was only looking at the
last nine pages
.
If Zacincto was still in this I’d be all over him more than anything else. Once again, your quote is not from the last nine pages, as you mentioned.
Westphalia and Mastercraftsman…if the 2000 Guineas comes up with give in the ground I would definatley give them a good chace…..
Once again you are word twisting here Cav, and have only lifted the bit of the quote you wanted to take…
Ive not really been hugely impressed by either of O’briens Danehill Dancers
, Westphalia or Mastercraftsman but if the 2,000 guineas comes up with give in the ground then I would definitely give them a good chance,
but wouldnt have them down to dominate 1 mile distances next season
.
and like I say I dont bet the guineas for give in the ground, but once again though, not from the
last nine pages
as you mentioned.
It would be foolish to rule out Jim Bolger trained Dewhurst winner Intense Focus
Cityscape…Has a good chance
Lord Shanakill…..He’s the one to beat
Delegator…..Looks sure to put in a solid performanceAs I said earlier have backed those 4.
Shaweel…..Would have a great chance etc…
Would have a great chance if the
ground was good, the pace is strong and he comes back to last seasons sort of form
Once again, a bit of taking what you want to take to try making your point here Cav. And like I say again, I only bet the guineas for gd-fm.
Keeping an eye on Ashram
Is a good horse at a big price bought by godolphin who should get the trip and loves gd-fm, if he starts to move I would definitely consider him worth keeping an eye on.
Arazan…Wouldnt write off
Since when is "not writing a horse" off when you are going through them, actually giving them a favorable mention, at no point have suggested having any confidence in arazans chances, that doesnt mean he has no chance though, he’s just not for me, but like I say "I wouldnt write him off"
Evasive…Very likeable sort for this race
Like I say if he wasnt such a poor price he would probably be a bet, he IS a nice sort for the race.
Are you saying that we are not allowed to mention horses in the race who have a chance but we dont fancy?
Couldnt care what you back, I was searching through this thread to try find some pointers to what will win the guineas. You’ve mentioned 8 of the first 12 in the market ffs.
8 of the first 12
now
perhaps, of course you are always welcome to try and see how many of them 8 were in the first 12 when I mentioned them. Glad you noticed though.
Of course IMO it would be foolish to not have an opinion the first 12 in the betting.Word twisting and exaggerations…..Where did I ever mention my method was ¨just backing whatever AOB fields¨??
Genuinely apologise if 2+2 hasnt made four here, but the only horses you appear to have any strong positive opinions about are AOBs and I would be genuinely surprised if you fancy anything else…
As for your recollection….
Priceless
.As for your tendency to go through posts and only take the words or captions you want to try to prove an argument…
Likewise..
I have no strong opinions on anything in the race yet, will spend an hour on it the evening before.
Ok lets have the full quote then…..
Ive not really been hugely impressed by either of O’briens Danehill Dancers, Westphalia or Mastercraftsman but if the 2,000 guineas comes up with give in the ground then I would definitely give them a good chance, but wouldnt have them down to dominate 1 mile distances next season.
Im not talking about dominating mile divisions, I’m talking about the 2000 Guineas and you give them both a good chances (along with about 10 others)
Keeping an eye on, give a chance to, had a little go at, a nice sort, wouldnt write off etc… etc…etc…. etc….
You’ve given us 20 (not 9 sorry) pages of top notch analysis Bulwark, so can I ask you in 2 words betting aside to name just 2 horses (to cover both soft and fast ground) who you think will the 2000 Guineas please?
JUST 2 WORDS WILL DO.
Well theres unlikely be soft ground so I wont go on soft, I’ll go one for good and one for gd-fm.
Good – Delegator (at current prices though- Cityscape)
Gd-Fm – Lord Shankill (two words in that name alone)
Im not talking about dominating mile divisions, I’m talking about the 2000 Guineas and you give them both a good chances (along with about 10 others)
Its a wide open guineas and these are 2yo group winners, it wouldve been foolish to say they didnt have good chances. As Ive said earlier on this thread Danehill Dancers largely tend to peak early in their 3yo season if there is give underfoot and then tend to lose it as the season goes on and the ground improves etc. You dont usually get that much give at newmarket though and thats the biggest reason why I have been against the pair. However Speciosa got enough give when she won so even as I see it, its not impossible for Mastercraftsman to win, and he is a group 1 winner, who many reckon is better on gd-fm.
Excellent, thank you Bulwark, will factor your thoughts on those 2 into my selection.
Come on Bulwark, nail your colours to one mast, tall ships dont have enough masts for the amount of selections you"ve put up!
Come on Bulwark, nail your colours to one mast, tall ships dont have enough masts for the amount of selections you"ve put up!
Well, "Antepostking" I am am happy to go to the guineas with four horses at decent prices, and a 14-1 who hasnt been inspiring, who IMO all have good chances (including the fave at 40-1) Of course, next year maybe I should follow your lead, stick all my eggs in the basket of the winter antepost fav (despite their terrible record) big him up to high heaven, then just kick back and watch him drift like a barge.
In a wide open year i see no problem in having a few done if the prices are there, and the only "selections" I have are those that I have backed, however almost every horse in the race has some chance, and until the ground is published its hard to write off any of the likely runners. I obviously didnt realise that every horse who you think has a chance, or wouldnt right off automatically becomes a selection.
IMO there is probably realistically about 5-6lbs between about the top 10 or so coming into this race, and it is just a matter of picking what you think will show the most improvement on the terms of the race. And when I say that, Im not selecting ten horses, Im just saying that I wouldnt fancy laying anything in a race as competetive.
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