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That’s it!!!! Now I am totally convinced you’re all mad
Hey Fisty, dont you go going AWOL again, your contributions are as
good as anyones, your wealth of experience on all topics still astounds me
at least you have an opinion on everything and sometimes you are actually
right ie Garde Champetre V L"ami,! Ok so you"re not quite in the same
league of knowledge as the Mastercraftsman but you aint far behind!I was toying with the idea of doing Maisons-Lafitte on Friday, Longchamp on Sunday, and Saint-Cloud on Monday, but there doesn’t seem to be anything to do on Saturday, so I’ll just go to M-L and come straight back.
Rievaulx World, on a line through Finjaan, has just done absolutely zilch for the Dewhurst form at Nottingham.
Last seasons Dewhurst form looks increasingly suspect.
Reivaulx World’s form has absolutely nothing to do with the Dewhurst form IMO, he had some very good 5f juvenile form last season, but was beaten over 5f by Finjaan, who subsequently went on to finish placed in the Dewhurst over 7f.
Just because Reivaulx World has run way below his form of last season today (lets face it- that isnt the horses form), doesnt suddenly mean that the dewhurst form is duff form. It is a bad example IMO.
Three very different pieces of form make this evidence circumstancial and render it inadmissable in the case of the people versus the dewhurst form.
Admittedly, however, Ive always suspected the dewhurst form could potentially be turned on its head at newmarket.
I agree its not the best example, but its not exactly a positive. I admit that i already thought the Dewhurst is duff, so i probably see a negative spin in any results too readily.
Surely the worst Dewhurst since Milk it Mick?
Even Milk It Micks dewhurst did throw up the following years guineas winner, and the champion stakes winner (same horse), and the "should have been" poulains winner from the beaten horses.
However Milk It Mick was a complete shock winner, where Intense Focus wasnt, nor was Lord Shanakill, who was well fancied on the day and had some decent form going into the race.
However, there are a few horses from the dewhurst’s defeated that may not have run their race, such as Shaweel, Delegator, Ashram, Rip Van Winkle, Huntdown and Soul City. Also the dewhurst was quite dominated by speedier sorts (compared to usual), and the finish was rather bunched and so the better stayers may not have shown their best, there is also the possibility that the ground that day was actually gd-fm which would be irregular enough for a dewhurst.
I completely understand what you are saying, and agree to an extent – but I’m taking a judgement on the race. I’m taking risk for sure, but i was hugely underwhelmed and i’ll be backing something to beat the main protagonists from the Dewhurst unless something has progressed and looks impressive in a trial.
I’m not convinced by Mastercraftsman or Naaqoos either – i’ll freely admit i’ve got little idea of a likely winner of the Guineas at this stage, and may well buck a recent trend and back an impressive winner of the Craven / Greenham, if indeed there is one.
I think Cityscape is probably the most likely winner of the craven next week, and his odds of 25-1 shouldnt hold for much longer if he does win.
Generally not a gret fan of horses in the guineas who dont have decent 7f form as a 2yo but he does have a bit of class about him and if it were good ground on guineas day I could see him doing well at newmarket. In the meantime the Craven should be his to collect.
Delegator should also go well in the craven, and it is interesting that those two are being backed ahead of the entries being made for the craven.
I reckon that in such a hard year to pick with little really standing out, that whatever wins the craven will be very short as a result.
Remeber that horse of Stoute’s Adagio that beat nothing (big robert I think) by about 3 lengths a few years ago and went into about 3-1ish for the guineas. Ravens Pass went pretty short last year after the craven too.
Think if anything wins it half convincingly they’ll low figures on the day.
Definitely. The firms need to certify a favourite as soon as possible.
However, we might find one on Friday if Naaqoos’ track gallop wows the firms – they’ve already begun anticipating such an occurrence.
Peruvian Chief,
if you are looking for an alternative, look at the credentials of a horse that has already been mentioned – Arazan.
He could be excused his defeat as favourite (for the National Stakes? – apologies RP website down for a few hours for maintenance) because of the Heavy ground.
What really turns me on about the horse is the trainer, John Oxx. How many Guineas runners has he had in the past?
How many Derby runners had he had before Sinndar? I know the answer to that one – NONE.
John Oxx has already stated that Arazan will be running in the Guineas, and he is going straight there.
I was looking at Arazan at Xmas time for the Derby, but finally went off him because of the price, not sure he’d stay 1m4f, and the sore shins or whatever they are called that he had as a 2yo – wasn’t sure coming down the hill/bend at Epsom would suit.
Gerald
It looks as if everyone else has had the same idea of travelling to Paris on Good Friday to watch Naaqoos – when I enquired at Eurostar yesterday, I was told they only had Business class tickets left, at £309. Decided to decline, as it will be a rather meaningless race anyway.
You can count on two things.
1) Naaqoos will win this conditions race by 6 lengths blindfolded.
2) Regardless of how donkey-esque the competition was, the firms will be ready and waiting to slash the price.Is the Craven meeting next week? Christ, I better order my RP books.
John Oxx stable tour in the Rag tomorrow ……. cue another opportunity for a newsmaking price-cut on a quiet day.
The Spoils rep quote in relation to the golf on the backpage of today’s edition was one of the worst/best of its kind.You can count on two things.
1) Naaqoos will win this conditions race by 6 lengths blindfolded.
2) Regardless of how donkey-esque the competition was, the firms will be ready and waiting to slash the price.Is the Craven meeting next week? Christ, I better order my RP books.
Yep begins Wednesday. The real start of the flat. Might as well just move the Lincoln meeting back to Greenham weekend. Makes more sense to me.
I had a bet on Crowed House who is drifting like a barge and his stable companion is shortening up.
Seen that one before so I am not even tempted to back Delegator as unless he wins the Craven Brian Meehansays Crowded House still might run.
It looks a complete mess to me and nothing really appeals.
I suppose anything trained by AOB must have a chand but I still can’t see him pulling it of this time.
I’m going to get on this Naagoos who lets face it destroyed the AOB hotpot in France.
Freddy Head is no back number and has been truning out top class winners for years.
French horses don’t have a good record in this but when this man sends anything over to the UK we should sit up and take notice.
MD reckons he will shorten up after his race and I think he’s spot on. So time to take the plunge.
7/1 seems too big for a horse with such an obvious chance but damned if I can see anything else worth backing.
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