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There are 13 left in the 2000 Guineas but really only about six have a realistic chance.
Having watched Air Force Blue winning the Dewhurst he does all his best work late in the race and I think on balance he will get the mile. Aidan has certainly put all his eggs in the one basket for this race.
What I don’t like is that Air Force Blue is wearing a tongue tie on Saturday. Where has that come from?
The spokesperson said that his preparation for this race had been “perfect”, so why does he need a tongue tie all of a sudden?
I hope Air Force Blue wins this and wins it well. The best of luck to anyone backing anything else at bigger odds but I feel that the O’Brien horse is the sole chance of a proper champion emerging from this race.
In the 1000 Guineas Minding seems rock solid, despite Ballydoyle coming in from left field and I am not seeing the money coming for Lumiere that you would expect given her trainers bullish comments and comparisons with his all time best horses.
If I had to pick a dark horse for each race, I would say that Ribchester is well overlooked at 40/1. His stamina is far from assured but he was second past the post in the Prix Djebel and as a Group 2 winner who is very unexposed his odds are enormous.
In the 1000 Guineas, Blue Bayou looks a sporting pop at 50/1. She was 5th in the Moyglare behind Minding, beaten 4 and a half lengths and that was hardly a disgrace. She’s a group 3 winner and was beaten a short head and a nose behind Illuminate in a group 2 and after only 4 career starts who knows.
Fun bet
1000 Guineas Blue Bayou 50/1
2000 Guineas Ribchester 40/12 x each way singles and each way double purely for the crack
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There are 13 left in the 2000 Guineas but really only about six have a realistic chance.
Having watched Air Force Blue winning the Dewhurst he does all his best work late in the race and I think on balance he will get the mile. Aidan has certainly put all his eggs in the one basket for this race.
What I don’t like is that Air Force Blue is wearing a tongue tie on Saturday. Where has that come from?
The spokesperson said that his preparation for this race had been “perfect”, so why does he need a tongue tie all of a sudden?
I hope Air Force Blue wins this and wins it well. The best of luck to anyone backing anything else at bigger odds but I feel that the O’Brien horse is the sole chance of a proper champion emerging from this race.
In the 1000 Guineas Minding seems rock solid, despite Ballydoyle coming in from left field and I am not seeing the money coming for Lumiere that you would expect given her trainers bullish comments and comparisons with his all time best horses.
If I had to pick a dark horse for each race, I would say that Ribchester is well overlooked at 40/1. His stamina is far from assured but he was second past the post in the Prix Djebel and as a Group 2 winner who is very unexposed his odds are enormous.
In the 1000 Guineas, Blue Bayou looks a sporting pop at 50/1. She was 5th in the Moyglare behind Minding, beaten 4 and a half lengths and that was hardly a disgrace. She’s a group 3 winner and was beaten a short head and a nose behind Illuminate in a group 2 and after only 4 career starts who knows.
Fun bet
1000 Guineas Blue Bayou 50/1
2000 Guineas Ribchester 40/12 x each way singles and each way double purely for the crack
Good luck with those fun bets Steve
Know you have been an Air Force Blue supporter all along. It does worry me a little that Racing Post are offering a months free membership to their Members Club if he wins..so now expecting to see the usual touting offers of 3/1 from bookies if you open an account with them
I don’t have a fun bet for The 1000 Guineas I think the first 3 places will be filled by shortish price fillies Lumiere is certainly a worthy 2nd favourite and she is going to run a big race..don’t think she will beat Ballydoyle if she runs but they are my 2 choices and would expect Nathra to fill 3rd position.
My fun bet for the 2000 guineas is…
FIRST SELECTION
at 66/1
He too is being fitted with some sort of headgear, I think it’s a hood, for the first time and it seems that they must think it will improve his chances otherwise it’s a big gamble to take for such a prestigious race in his career..
Good Luck Steve…
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Newmarket Weather Update:
Been dry and sunny all day but raining cats and dogs at the moment (almost midnight)…however drying winds tomorrow and set fair in the South for a dry weekend..fingers crossed that the ground will be good at Newmarket and Ballydoyle will take her chance.. Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good luck with those fun bets Steve
Know you have been an Air Force Blue supporter all along. It does worry me a little that Racing Post are offering a months free membership to their Members Club if he wins..so now expecting to see the usual touting offers of 3/1 from bookies if you open an account with them I don’t have a fun bet for The 1000 Guineas I think the first 3 places will be filled by shortish price fillies Lumiere is certainly a worthy 2nd favourite and she is going to run a big race..don’t think she will beat Ballydoyle if she runs but they are my 2 choices and would expect Nathra to fill 3rd position.
My fun bet for the 2000 guineas is…
FIRST SELECTION
at 66/1
He too is being fitted with some sort of headgear, I think it’s a hood, for the first time and it seems that they must think it will improve his chances otherwise it’s a big gamble to take for such a prestigious race in his career..
Good Luck Steve… JacThanks Jac.
The ground is good to soft at the moment after 8mm of rain last night. This was more than was forecast.
It looks like “good” would be the fastest ground possible for the two Guineas.
Air Force Blue was eased to 8/11 this morning.
First Selection did well last year but he needs to improve from 109 and I would like to have seen him a few pounds higher in the ratings.
Night Of Thunder showed that it can be done at big odds though.
I’m looking forward to seeing what Air Force Blue looks like now. He is nicknamed “The Monster” at home and is 16.2 hands tall.
All the best with your bets Jac and have a great day out. Sadly, I’ll be watching via Channel 4 only and listening to some of their tripe
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m quite late having a look at this, one reason being the weather factor which could
play a part here. Ballydoyle is the best horse in the race IMO, but I have serious doubts
if she will have the ground that shows her electric pace, and in fact it wouldn’t surprise
me if she didn’t appear.As good a horse as Minding is, I don’t think at best priced 6/4 that she is particularly
good value. Although there is no denying that she beat NATHRA fair and square
in the Dubai Fillies Mile at Newmarket last October, I thought that prior to that Nathra had
looked impressive. She, unlike many, has had a prep run and looked to have trained on well when
winning the Nell Gwyn. If you can forgive her one defeat, she is worth chancing at 10/1.Having trawled through all previous form, I think that at a big price ALJAZZI isn’t
without some kind of a chance. There obviously isn’t a lot to go on, having had just 2 runs, but her
opening maiden at Newmarket last October could only be called impressive, and she is one who will
handle the ground. She didn’t appear until a couple of weeks ago in the Fred Darling Stakes, the race
being rerouted from Newbury to Chelmsford owing to the course being unraceable. She took a while until
the penny dropped, but in the last couple of furlongs she was making ground hand over fist to finish
4th. Perhaps she needed the race, perhaps she didn’t like the dirt perhaps she just lacked experience.
That’s a lot of perhapses, but then again she is 66/1. I won’t go mad on her, but I think as a speculative
punt, she is worth a couple of quid.Best of luck all.
Don’t think she’ll have a problem with the ground. She has quite a rounded action if you look at her videos.
In any case I think the ground will have started to dry out a bit by sunday- could still be some juice in it I suppose, but I think none of the runners will have any excuses on that score.
This years 1000 gns result really is governed by what happens Weather wise..Very rarely do I get flustered about such inconveniences,Albertas Run at Cheltenham probably my most dependant horse ground wise but thankfully lady luck shone down on us.I’m hoping she does the same this weekend as both my Guineas horses dont want ‘soft’ in the going description.Looking at the forecast for the umpteenth time this week it looks like being a dry weekend,a fair breeze tomorrow morning will see us kick off this classic weekend with genuine Good Ground a dry night Saturday and if the Gods are on Ballydoyles side the ground will quicken again and that hands victory to the Michael Tabor filly…If Darrens Ante-Post date with destiny wants his 25/1 about Minding to prove he is a phenomenal judge then it will Rain on my parade it will.
Fillies are always dodgy, they are very unpredictable. However there is no denying Minding is clearly the best and should win!
All I have is Nathra EW at 16-1.
I didn’t read much into the tongue strap on Air Force Blue personally. Maybe it’s just been put on as a safety net. There was a study published a couple of years ago that found tongue ties physically improve air flow in normal horses, so I suppose it’s not just horses who suffer with a dorsally displaced palate who benefit.
My brain is telling me that Godolphin went through a phase of putting tongue straps on all their runners. Have I made this up?
I think we see now after Air Force Blue’s bubble was burst just why Aiden isn’t solely relying on Minding in this race
“While some sceptics question her getting one mile, I am not one of them. There is no doubt in my mind that she will stay the trip,” Johnston told http://www.godolphin.com.
“She has so much early speed, I can see why some may doubt her, but I can report she has been very settled in her work at home.
“Lumiere is one of my favourites. She is right up there in my top three two-year-olds of all time, now we shall see if she can graduate to the same bracket as a three-year-old. She is already a Group One winner, and a very exciting filly.”
He certainly is bullish about her chances and I am so close to putting my beans on her but Minding was very impressive in her group 1 win last year. It should be good ground tomorrow but I’ll keep an eye out because I think that is going to be the biggest factor.
There has been a lot of talk about this horse since day 1 and if she has the stamina for this (certainly has the class) then she is as exciting as they come.
The last four winners all had a run before the Guineas.
If we follow that trend then that rules out the first three in the betting and Illuminate!!So as well as my ante post bets on Nathra and Midweek I have a combo exacta those two with Alice Springs!!
And I have had some two by two each way doubles ante post Galileo Gold and Massaat with Nathra and Midweek.
I have everything crossed!!
Mark Johnston was bullish about Buratino getting a mile. It never happened.
Lumiere is weak at 6/1 and I feel she has to be taken on.
I’ll probably lay her at 6/4 for a place in this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ballydoyle 1000gns filly for next year.
Photograph courtesy of Dangerous Dave the Photoman.
We started the thread with her Pic,lets hope we can finish it with one…What price is it to rain 10 mins before off time and hand it to ‘Minding’ on a plate?..TAPK does not allow negative thoughts to pervade….
An attractive betting heat with eleven of the sixteen declared currently trading at 20/1 or greater.
I supported Nathra prior to her successful reappearance in the Nell Gwyn, and with that victory came proof of her wellbeing and that she had trained on. It was the second occasion she had performed at the course after a fine effort behind Minding in the Fillies Mile. That was Minding’s fifth start – third in Group company – compared to Nathra’s third start and first foray into pattern company.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that despite such a comprehensive defeat, Nathra can get much closer to that rival this afternoon, particularly in light of Air Force Blue’s performance yesterday. The John Gosden-trained filly has few questions to answer and is arguably the most solid contender in the line-up.
I was very impressed with Ballydoyle when she won her maiden at Newmarket and it was no surprise to see her finish the campaign with a Group 1 to her name. She boasts a lovely, athletic stride, is uncomplicated and always gives 100%. She is another who will have no problem with the undulations, has proven ability and Air Vice Marshal outperformed his better fancied stable companion yesterday.
Connections of Lumiere are incredibly bullish, and this striking filly will attract plenty of attention. Enthusiasm has perhaps wavered after the performance of stable companion Buratino yesterday, and she is currently fairly weak in the market. I expect her to stay and she is a most interesting contender.
Minding has done little wrong and is a worthy favourite. I have my suspicions that Illuminate will prove better over shorter while, conversely, Turrent Rocks is crying out for further. Alice Springs is very consistent and has form with a handful of these – she could quite easily be the yardstick in this contest when the dust settles.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
I do hope Lumiere wins, even though I haven’t backed her. Would love Middleham to have another classic winner.
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