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I usually don’t think about stats but the one that goes the Craven and Nell Gwyn winners never win the Guineas is playing on my mind.
Its been 14/15 years now since Preciosa won both the NG and the 1000 Giuneas and Haafhd won The Craven and the 2000 Guineas…so the big question is…
‘Can Qabala break through the stats and come home on Sunday? I think she can
however I think her stablmate Mot Juste ran a decent race to be second and could improve for that run so she is my each way bet and
Rev Comby Forecast
Qabala – win
Mot Juste – EW
Angels Hideaway – EW SaverThe one I fear could throw a spanner in the works is Angels Hideaway 3rd in the Nell Gwyn and looked to have come out of the race very well when I saw her in the cooling down paddock, so a small EW Saver at 20/1 on her.
These 3 first home in the NG could well feature in the finish again on Sunday, so the big question is.. Who will improve to beat Qabala or will she herself improve and win the 1000 Guineas on Sunday?
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I wouldn’t take much notice of the Nell Gwyn’s record in producing Guineas winners, Jac; they vary so much. But to concentrate on the 2019 Nell Gwyn which – although pretty good form – Qabala will need to improve again if she’s to score here. To give the filly credit; she is a little better than the result suggests (did really well to come from the back in a slowly run race – so is probably better than the distances make out). Needs to improve again to win an average Guineas (average as in – if the race is mid-way between the best 1000 Guineas and the worst 1000) but she is certainly progressing. Varian is still in good form, but there are more trainers in good form now than there was at the time of her Nell Gwyn. For me, Qabala might be worth a saver, but my concern is stamina… On the other hand Mot Juste is pretty much sure to be very much suited by the extra furlong whilst not appearing to have the scope for improvement of her stable companion.
On form, I love the chances of my ante-post bet Skitter Scatter, but could do with a win from her new trainer – to settle the nerves. Although some stablemates have run well (as well as could be expected)… currently (still!) zero wins so far this season.
Value Is EverythingLol I thought that too Ginge
Re Qabala I don’t think there is any doubt as to her stamina being by Scat Daddy her 2nd Dam Flute (Seattle Slew) won the Kentucky Oaks and her Damsire Empire Maker is the Grandsire of Triple Crown winner Americam Pharoah.
Qabala descends from a family with true grit and to come from the position she did in the NG after jumping the start to take up the lead and power up the hill doesn’t scream stamina doubt to me.
Hoping she’ll break the Nell Gwyn curse and be tbe first filly since Preciosa to win tbe NG and tbe 1000 Guineas. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Yes, if we only had the pedigree to go on I’d say Qabala would in all probability stay a mile. But there’s also how she did it and temperament to take in to consideration.
Regarding temperament: May have been ok in the paddock but sweated up a bit at the start. Also, got the impression the trainer had at least some misgivings in an interview afterwards. Nothing overly worrying, just worth taking in to account.
Regarding how she won: For me the Nell Gwyn victory was all about speed rather than stamina. It’s not that it shouts a stamina problem, Jac; just a possibility. Not many horses show that kind of speed, ie Given that speed there’s no doubt in my mind Qabala would be fully effective at 6f. But will she stay?
So when those two things come together – and breeding has one side of the pedigree as speed and one side stamina – there’s at least a question: ie Stamina on one side does not always over-ride speed on the other (reverse is also true). Therefore, how much does Qabala’s stamina requirements take after her sire Scat Daddy (speed)?.. And how much do her stamina requirements take after the dam’s side of the pedigree? Empire Maker and co are obviously encouraging but is not conclusive proof… Particularly when siblings and dam’s relations that stay a mile or further don’t on the whole have such a speed influence as sire that Qabala has.
Don’t get me wrong; am not saying Qabala will fail for stamina. Overall imo she’s more likely to stay than not to stay. Way I bet I don’t need to come to a definite conclusion on will she or won’t she stay; just allow for the chance of not staying in the price am willing to take.
Value Is EverythingMoore picking Just Wonderful over Fairyland is a boost
Ryan knowsGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Thanks Ginge really interesting explanation re Qabala. I’m hoping she stays calm in the parade ring on Sunday, expect the hood will go on again until she goes to post. Have to back Mot Juste also as she showed such promise (also they’re both in my 10 to follow
) and have already had my small saver on Angel’s Hideaway.
@Nathan…Always worried about the AOB/Ryan Moore factor at Newmarket he is the Master and wouldn’t surprise if one of his fillies came in but sticking to my guns, as always, and would like to see Roger Varian win this with one of his fillies…good luck to everyone having a bet later today…JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Am happy again with my two turning up and just hope one of them wins!!
I have Iridessa in an each way treble with Mabs Cross and Magna Grecia and Mot Juste in an each way double with Magna Grecia and am on them both ante post at 20/1
So am in for either a major disappointment or deep joy LOL
Good Luck Guys
Good luck Raymo!
Can’t see Nell Gwyn third and fourth Alpine Hidaway and Look Around staying and both pretty much exposed as below top class. I’ve also done Nell Gwyn runner-up Mot Juste @ 18/1 as a main bet, now. Should be suited by both the extra furlong and a truer run/stamina mile. Considering all the O’Brien horses (Mr and Master) – and all of them will be suited by a stamina mile – can’t see this being slowly run. That said, at the prices I want to be against Master’s Iridessa at this trip. Given she seems stamina laden, (EDIT: see below) why should she be amongst the favourites when Hermosa wasn’t beaten far in the Fillies Mile and is available at massive odds? So the other outsider I’ve done is Hermosa @ 33/1. Although have some stamina (and jockey) doubts about the favourite, if anything walks away with this it’ll be Qabala. So – with the yard also still in good form – have had a saver. As said earlier, the one horse I don’t see staying is Fairyland and she’s not just gone for a walk, but a hike in the market. Love to see David Elsworth finally have an English classic winner, but Dandhu only scraped home, the second and third Iconic Choice and Star Terms have fair chances of reversing placings too, but I don’t rate the Fred Darling form. Dandhu beaten fairly easily by Just Wonderful in the Rockfel. Just Wonderful might have two ways of running (inconsistent) but is the stable first string with (it seems) more confidence growing in her (that may be more to do with Magna Grecia), may still improve further and the one O’Brien filly sure to be at her best distance. Had a 3/4 main bet on Just Wonderful. Fleeting beat Star Terms further than Dandhu, but looked all about stamina in the May Hill and (stand out performance) I thought Fleeting could be flattered. However, along with Mot Juste, the other I believe is massively over-priced is my 12/1 ante-post bet, Skitter Scatter. Moyglare form looks excellent – staying on at 7f and going further clear to beat Lady Kaya 2 lengths. SS should imo be a clear second fav! Oxx yard are yet to have a winner this season and I suppose if she’s unfit that could be valid reason for the price… But plenty of the yard’s horses have run well (to form) of late. I have Skitter Scatter as a fair 16.75% 5/1 chance and is available @ 7/1. Lady Kaya herself is on “form” a good price, but not sure she’s going to find any more for the step up in trip and far less likely here to get her own way up front. Only other runner Garrel Glen looks hopelessly outclassed, wouldn’t back her at 2000/1.So it’s Skitter Scatter, Mot Juste and Hermosa the best results for me, Just Wonderful would be good too; saved on Qabala.
EDIT: I’ve just seen a replay of the Fillies Mile on the Timeform website and had to think again about Iridessa. They’re right that she travelled through the race with more ease than I gave her credit for. So her chances of have enough speed here are (although not definite) more than I thought. Has also increased my belief Hermosa is (or was at yesterday’s prices) good value.
Here’s the Timeform article, I don’t agree that Iridessa’s the best bet, but warrents a saver @ around 15/2.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% Book:
Qabala 7/2, Skitter Scatter 5/1, Just Wonderful 11/2, Iridessa 6/1, Mot Juste 14/1, Hermosa 18/1, Fairyland 20/1, Lady Kaya 20/1, Fleeting 25/1, Dandhu 40/1, Star Terms 40/1, Iconic Choice 50/1, Angel’s Hideaway 132/1, Looking Around 400/1, Garel Glen 2000/1.Value Is Everything“Hermosa wasn’t beaten far in the Fillies Mile and is available at massive odds? So the other outsider I’ve done is Hermosa @ 33/1”.
Hermosa, 33/1 Robert!
Value Is EverythingCracking ride on Hermosa…
Honestly thought Lady Kaya was going to win it and easily.Well done to all winners!
however I think her stablmate Mot Juste ran a decent race to be second and could improve for that run so she is my each way bet and
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