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Not usually one to go in for a horse so early in the season but was really impressed with the filly that I saw winning at Newmarket July Course on Saturday 30th June.
Owned by Andrew Lloyd Webber and W S Farish she really took the eye in the pre parade a flashy chestnut with quite a bit of white about her legs and face, but she has already filled her frame well and can only improve over the winter.
She had previously just failed to hang on after leading all the way in the race won by Octave a Class 5 on the All Weather at Lingfield, but in this tricky Class 1 Listed event she left us in no doubt who was in charge by winning by 4 and a half lengths from Charlie Appleby’s useful filly Strings Of Life and another useful filly (although she needs cut next time) Impulsion.
Although not making a good exit from the stalls in the race Gerald Mosse got her well balanced to make her run up the uphill finish and she was ridden clear running away with the race at the finish to win very comfortably.
A beautiful long striding filly, trained by Ed Walker.
ROYAL INTERVENTION by Exceed and Excel out of Exciting Times (Jeune Homme)
Her Dam Sire was trained by F.Boutin and is from the Storm Cat family and he achieved success over 8/9f in France, which makes her an ideal Guineas candidate.Currently 33/1 with Bet 365
I think we are going to see a lot more of her before the 1000 Guineas and hopefully she will keep sound and make it to the race next year.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...She’s a lovely horse, nice head carriage and neck extension as she uses that long stride.
The form should be worth following in the near future and, as you suggest, more long term.
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20180630/2792344/16672937
Goddess @20/1, seamie quoted as saying after the race he thinks she could be better than september
Looked great Ham, but on the face of it have we any idea what she’s beat? Some nice pedigrees, but i’d be sceptical right now….
Seamie quotes are interesting at least!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Always skeptical of these winners jack, im not really too bothered by what she beat, nothing is probably the likely answer,its more what seamie said… hes more in the know with the newcomers/maiden runners, She must be showing alot at home aswell as today against other A yard recruits for him to say as much.
I’d be wary of these wide margin winners. It never normally works out the following season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pretty Pollyanna did me a big favour in the Cherry Hinton today, viktors. But by Champion Sprinter Oasis Dream and a half sister to two 7f winners who were by greater stamina influences (miler) sires… And the way Pretty Pollyanna runs (travels with ease through her races at 6f) – if anything will be effective if going back in trip. Although I’d love to see her prove me wrong – seems very doubtful to stay a mile.
Value Is EverythingAnyone who backed Goddess for the Guineas didn’t get long before another filly emerged and produced a better performance still.
Goddess was rated 98 for her 10 length romp by the Racing Post and while that is a good figure after 2 runs, she will need more than that moving into Group company.
Pretty Pollyanna was rated 97 before her latest win but seems sure to go up a fair bit now. The trouble is that Main Edition and others who were involved in the scrimmaging have not run their race and that makes it a bit harder to assess the form accurately. However, with a Topspeed figure of 103, which is excellent, you would have to put Pretty Pollyanna somewhere about 110 for her success at the level of company she has achieved it in.
In comparison, Goddess only recorded a speed rating of 47 for her ten length success and that is actually less than her first run, making the notion that she is now 11 pounds higher than winner of that race, Peach Tree, seem a bit dubious.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pretty Pollyanna has a RPR 112 for that win.
She was very good, but i would say the bare result needs take with a pinch of salt.
Goddess winning by 10l was also impressive, but it’s worth waiting to see how the newcomers do in the future. At the end of the day she only beat debutants…. Very taking nevertheless, and the rating achieved is obviously going to be very high considering the distance she put between her + 2nd. I wouldn’t touch her with counterfeit for anything right now though.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!In connection with Pretty Pollyanna’s rating, she wouldn’t be rated in relation to Main Edition or the Godolphin filly (both mullered); but there are plenty of other fillies in the race which she can be rated against or on times. Make no mistake she’s a good filly. At this stage should be favourite for the Lowther. Bares repeating though, very doubtful to stay a mile.
Value Is EverythingGood to see you still finding the time to post Steve.
I’m waiting for the paperwork to go through on becoming an official cat fosterer. They estimate that you have to commit 35 Hours a week to the role, so obviously I will be limited.
I am only watching 2YO races now. Didn’t even watch the July Cup yesterday.
I am not keen on trusting form in races where there are huge gaps between the winner and the bulk of the field. That probably makes me unconventional in some peoples eyes but it’s based on 40 years of observation and been proven the correct option plenty enough to make it a worthy strategy.
If we look at the 4th horse in Pretty Pollyanna’s race, Gossamer Wings, she has been rated 40 lbs behind the winner for being beaten 13 and a half lengths, with a rating of 72. Gossamer Wings was previously rated 99 for being 2nd in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot but has managed to be the best part of 2 stones below that this time. Gossamer Wings was not involved in the interference but was still passed by Ralph Beckett’s 1/3 Leicester winner for third place. Chaleur did not even manage to run to her Leicester win of 81 at Newmarket, given just 73 for her run.
I always feel that horses who have run well below their previous start have the scope to have run worse still than the rating they get awarded ultimately. What if the third and fourth have performed worse than they have been given credit for?
Runner-up Angel’s Hideaway is yet another filly to have run to lower than her previous run on her latest start. She was involved in scrimmaging and that is probably due to the wrestling with other fillies. How can we be confident that the interference actually caused precisely 5 lbs of detriment to her performance though?
As a former scientific analyst, I find it hard to apply the same confidence to something so much more volatile in the form of Horse Racing. I would not exactly be dropping to my knees in shock if Pretty Pollyanna were to be turned over at short odds later in the season. Everything fell into place for her this time, even if she is a very talented filly anyway, and that is unlikely to happen again on a different day.
I agree that she looks a sprinter long term.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you dont trust large gap winners steve (which you shouldnt in general)
What made sergei prokofiev so attractive 2nd time out for the coventry… he won by what 8 lengths or so getting weight? What was the thinking behind that if not the mqnner of victory?
I always listen to seamie or aiden with the ballydoyle runners personally, athena is a good example of that, looked nothing more than a soon to be group pacemaker…but they were pretty confident she was better than that… just one example of course..
Possibly Ham due to the fact he was backing him at 33s knowing he’d shorten?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Steve is right not to “trust” large gap winners. At least in that whenever a horse wins by a large margin a punter should look in to whether there’s valid reason to doubt the form. But equally it is easy to pick out some proven flattered from the past and use that to wrongly dismiss all large gap winners.
eg Interference suffered by others means Pretty Pollyanna won by further than she would’ve done. But for me the point is she still would’ve won by a significant margin and in a good time, therefore still put up a good performance, ie better than most renewals.
If a horse gets the “run of the race”:
Sometimes a front/prominent runner is able to kick off a slow pace, with its main rivals held up and finding trouble in running. Sometimes there’s an overly strong pace where its main rivals go off too fast, a horse comes from the back and goes clear.
Sometimes a horse is the only horse to act in conditions; some don’t act on the ground, some don’t stay, some don’t act on the track, some walked out the gate, etc.
On heavy or very soft ground a length is worth fewer lbs.Sometimes the evidence either way isn’t that strong and nothing wrong with holding off from making strong conclusions. Goddess won by a wide margin, but it was a maiden, not in an especially fast time and what did she beat? Unlike her – unraced horses that may or may not be poor. It’s obviously an encouraging performance, Goddess also has bags of scope for improvement and COULD in time prove be top class. Just that – for me – her form can not be rated highly yet.
After analysis sometimes there is no reason to doubt a winning margin. eg Alpha Centauri at Ascot.
This is just one aspect of form where punters taking race times in to account – both overall and sectional – can find advantage. Identifying flattered horses and by how much they were flattered… And those horses better than distances suggest… And also those well worth rating on a large margin victory.
Value Is EverythingNo one should trust a wide margin winner on the face of it was what i was getting at ginge, i think everyone (especially on here) treads lightly… its just about getting on at a bigger price on something that could be value in the future, but technically its just guesswork until the form has any substance/or they do it again…
Was only asking why sergei prokofiev after his wide margin winner attracted steve if he doesnt trust wide margin winners? What makes him a value bet for the coventry at 20/1 or whatever it was, but say goddess isnt for the 1000 guineas at 20/1? Polar opposite comparisons for many reasons im aware… im only referring to the margin of there maiden wins..
Jac
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