- This topic has 120 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by
.
- Posts
The way she won was very impressive and I will trust the eye test. I, however, acknowledge that a mile might not be within her reach, but I’m willing to take the risk, just like I took it with Alpha Centauri last year (didn’t run on the UK Guineas ultimately, but I was on the right horse).
Steve and I also backed Alpha Centauri ante-post for the 1000, viktors. But tbh I had very little doubt she’d get a mile.
Value Is EverythingThe wide margin win was no factor in me backing Sergei Prokofiev for The Coventry.
I had actually backed him for the race just after his debut defeat (at 33/1) for the Coventry, simply because he looked a sure fire winner for next time out and I reckoned he could be a good bit shorter than double carpet once the race actually took place.
I didn’t think he beat much the next two starts and by Coventry time I had a saver on Calyx, as I felt he had stronger looking form and it transpired that way in the end. It may be that Sergei Prokofiev might have won a more average renewal of the Ascot race and it didn’t help that Ryan had him plenty far enough off the pace and that he had to rattle through from the back, although I suspect subsequent July Stakes winner Advertise outstayed him near the finish.
Another factor to consider for me with wide margin winners is whether the horse is unbeaten or not. If a horse has already met defeat, I take a more pessimistic view of the new form. Pretty Pollyanna had only been 5th to Main Edition earlier, so why the seemingly huge turn around in form? Sometimes the going can explain the change, sometimes just one horse progresses more than the others but sometimes it just remains suspicious for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Inexperience explains a lot when it comes to improvement shown, Steve… Sometimes a 5th is a very good performance given circumstances. It wasn’t “only” a 5th place, on only her second start Pretty Pollyanna finished just 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner of a good Group 3 (a race generally thought of as better quality overall than this year’s Group 2 Queen Mary). Allowing for difference in experience, interference suffered at Newmarket by the Albany 1 – 2, and the rate of improvement shown by Pretty Pollyanna from first to second start… the turn around in form wasn’t that big.
Pretty Pollyanna comes from the Michael Bell yard; one far less renowned for debutant two year old winners than a lot of trainers. Reason for that is they’re seldom fully fit and/or need the experience. Bell’s generally coming on a good deal for the run. So although Pretty Pollyanna didn’t put up anywhere near as good a performance than some Albany rivals on their debut sucesses – likelihood was she’d come on a lot more for the run. And that’s what happened in the Albany. On Timeform Performance ratings making 22 lbs improvement from Yarmouth to Ascot.
After Main Edition’s debut success for Mark Johnston she went for a Class 5 Novice Stakes at Goodwood and won it. Admittedly putting up a performance better than the average Class 5 Novice and started single figures at Ascot. In contrast, despite her inexperience Pretty Pollyanna – on her second start – went straight for an 18 runner Group 3 – a far more difficult race to win (started 28/1). Pretty Pollyanna putting up a similar standard of performance in finishing 2 1/4 lengths 5th on her second start as Main Edition put up in winning her second start.
ie The reason unbeaten horses remain unbeaten is solely the grade of race it ran in.
In the Albany, Main Edition had a significant advantage of experience. However, Pretty Pollyanna actually improved her form far more from only start to Royal Ascot – than Main Edition had from Goodwood to Royal Ascot… Indeed, as I said prior to the Duchess Of Cambridge – “Of all Albany fillies it was Pretty Pollyanna that probably made most improvement. If that rate of progress can be anywhere near maintained will surprise a few here” (in the Duchess Of York)… And on Timeform Performance ratings Pretty Pollyanna did not need to maintain that rate of progress to win well.
Value Is EverythingI mentioned in the Chesham Stakes thread that I was quite keen on Natalie’s Joy after she
impressed first time out at Goodwood. I backed her for this at 20/1 on the strength
of that run, but if the wheels didn’t quite come off the bogey in the Chesham, they
most certainly wobbled a bit. Johnson later said that nothing went right for her in
the race but that she’s better than that. Her time at Goodwood certainly suggested
she was very smart, in fact at that time she was the highest rated 2 year old horse,
never mind filly, in the country. I took the 50s, although it would be fair to say
her future was unsure after the Chesham. Anyway, my hopes were bolstered a bit when
she came back out last Friday in a listed race at Newbury which she won well against
the boys. She had the others hard at work after a couple of furlongs, and when she was
challenged at the 5f mark she picked up and was going away. Johnson said the plan was
always the Princess Margaret, with or without a run between the Chesham and it, at Ascot
this Saturday but he’s maybe thinking again as Dettori was quite impressed with her and
suggested stepping her back up to 7f again in the Prix Du Calvados at Deauville next month.
She will need to show that she can frank the early promise, but at the 50/1 she’s still
trading at I don’t think it’s such a bad punt.The bookies have already clipped Goddess into 12’s from 16’s for the 1000 guineas before tonight’s race, what price will she be after it…?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Goddess ran a stinker. Had a good bet on the eventual winner, proven form and showed that is much the best from those.
Wonder if they’ll now shorten up Royal Intervention’s price before her run in the Keeneland on Saturday.
Didn’t rate Goddess on what she had done but Royal Intervention beat some classy fillys at Newmarket and I can’t wait to see her run again..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Was hoping after that run goddess would drift more, still 20s at best which is unfortunate, i wont be writing her off atall due to the obriens yard issue, was just to bad to be true and im assuming the price virtually staying the same is indicating they believe so also, should she drift but ill probably top up…
Wonder if they’ll now shorten up Royal Intervention’s price before her run in the Keeneland on Saturday.
Not as yet Jac
It’s due to Ed Walker not being spelt Aidan O’Brien….Would you be worried Jac about the breeding of Royal Intervention regard getting the mile.? Exceed And Excel
seems to produce more 6/7f horses opposed to those over the mile although Excelebration was a bit special.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
GL Jac, hopefully keep your dream going today! Becketts certainly a promising type as well!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!i wont be writing her off atall due to the obriens yard issue, was just to bad to be true and im assuming the price virtually staying the same is indicating they believe
Exactly, ham.
When a horse runs like Goddess did this week it proves nothing either way as far as prospects for next year. Although imo the debut performance is not enough to make her that short anyway.
Value Is EverythingRoyal Intervention might not stay a mile, but the Princess Marg might be won by a Scintilating performer that will.
Value Is EverythingI wasn’t too worried about Royal Intervention getting the mile Nathan as her Sire is from Storm Cat’s family and she ran the uphill finish at Newmarket very gamely
@Jack
Thanks for your good wishes today Jack, I thought she was going to stretch on but Angels Hideaway was travelling much quicker and seemed more suited to Ascot.I thought I noticed RI changing her legs a couple of times in the race which could have meant she was unbalanced and still a bit green.
Waiting to see how she fairs in The Lowther at York now where she could meet Angel’s Hideaway again.
Still love the look of her,she has the potential to win at Group level eventually and then, hopefully, on to win the 1000 Guineas next April. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Pretty Pollyanna 14/1.
She smashed up Angels Hideaway etc and i had to take that price once i seen AH win on Saturday. Taking on Calyx next will be very interesting, even if it proves possibly pointless.Never a fan of Goddess and as seen on 2yo thread i do like Angels Hideaway since her debut but my bet for it is
ZAGITOVA 25/1
She won very well at weekend has nice breeding won at a 1m on saturday but way she won suggest to me top 7f races be no problem any filly from this yard i like it is her.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.