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Tonge.
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September 6, 2016 at 00:12 #1262220
For those who are interested –
I have looked at the pedigrees of the mares producing Crop 1 & Crop 2. Rather than do a conventional in-breeding analysis focused on specific individuals, I’ve broken these down to look at the number of times particular male lines appear in the mare’s pedigree. I’ve paid most attention to the number of lines of Northern Dancer and his male line descendants, and of Mr Prospector and his male line descendants. This makes for some pretty interesting reading:
In Crop 1, 8 of the mares (7%) have no occurrence of Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector or Rainbow Quest in their 5-generation pedigree; 38 (32%) have 1 line of any of these; 30 (25%) have 2; 32 (27%) have 3 and 10 (8%) have 4 or more. In Crop 2 there are 7 (6%) with 0, 23 (21%) with 1, 43 (39%) with 2, 23 (31%) with 3 and 15 (14%) with 4 or more. Most of these involve ND and Mr P rather than RQ.
Crop 1 has 45 foals (38%) that have both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector in their dam’s pedigree, and often more than 1 x 1. Crop 2 has 46 (41%).
Put Frankel’s pedigree on top of this and you have another 2 lines of Northern Dancer to add in to the mix plus another occurrence of Mr Prospector. So, put that to mares with even just 2 lines [the main combinations are 2 x ND, 1 x ND/1 x Mr P, or 2 x Mr P] and you end up with pedigrees that are typically on the lines of 4 x ND; 3 x ND/2 x Mr P; and 2 x ND/3 x Mr P. 4 or more lines, of course, takes this way further.
The broodmare sire stats for Crops 1 & 2 combined look like this:
Darshaan (9); Danehill Dancer (8); Pivotal (8); Oasis Dream (7); Kingmambo (7); Dansili (5); Giant’s Causeway (5); Green Desert (5); Distant View (4); Mark of Esteem (4); Linamix (4); Anabaa (3); Empire Maker (3); Indian Ridge (3); Invincible Spirit (3); Marju (3); Montjeu (3); More than Ready (3); Red Ransom (3); Sadler’s Wells (3); Selkirk (3); Singspiel (3); Storm Cat (3); Woodman (3); Zafonic (3); Affirmed (2); Dalakhani (2); Dashing Blade (2); Daylami (2); Deputed Testimony (2); Diesis (2); Dubawi (2); Dynaformer (2); Efisio (2); El Prado (2); Elusive Quality (2); Encosta de Lago (2); Henrythenavigator (2); Highest Honor (2); Kayhasi (2); Lomitas (2); Machiavellian (2); Monsun (2); Mr Greeley (2); Observatory (2); Oratorio (2); Pulpit (2); Rahy (2); Rainbow Quest (2); Thunder Gulch (2); Tiger Hill (2); Vettori (2); Zabeel (2). All the rest have just 1: Beat Hollow, Charnwood Forest, Chester House, Danetime, Deploy, Desert Prince, Diktat, Dr Devious, Dubai Millenium, Duke of Marmalade, Excellent Art, Fasilyev, Foxhound, Gold Away, Grand Lodge, Green Tune, Hennessy, Inchinor, Inktikhab, Kendargent, Kris S, Lear Fan, Lemon Drop Kid, Malibu Moon, Manduro, Medicean, Miswaki, Mizzen Mast, Mountain Cat, Nureyev, Oflee Wild, Peinte Celebre, Primo Dominie, Raven’s Pass, Redback, Red Clubs, Redoubte’s Choice, Royal Academy, Shirocco, Seeking the Gold, Sevres Rose, Shamardal, Shareef Dancer, Smart Strike, Spectrum, Sri Pekan, Stravinsky, Street Cry, Suave Dancer, Tamino Gimlet, Testa Rossa, Unbridled’s Song, Var, Whipper, Zamindar.
The vast majority of these Frankel sons and daughters are going to need some outcrosses fast …September 6, 2016 at 09:38 #1262225Impressive research there Titus
Although must admit don’t understand any of it
September 7, 2016 at 14:35 #1262333Saw in the Racing Post today that Watchman (ex. Zomaradah), trained by Roger Varian for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid, has had his name changed and is now UAE King.
Must say I prefer ‘Watchman’, but maybe it’s a sign that they’re expecting big things.
September 8, 2016 at 14:10 #1262438A 3rd Group winner for Frankel as Toulifaut makes it 3 from 3 over in Chantilly. She did it cosily enough and will surely take up that Group 1 option on Arc weekend.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
September 8, 2016 at 14:21 #1262442I see Senator runs tomorrow in the listed race
I wonder if he can emulate his sire and win at this meeting. Up against some likely types but given his pedigree and running style he could well improve massively for the extra furlong. Think he could just outbattle them in the final part of the race. Anything around 5/6-1 would be huge value
September 8, 2016 at 16:34 #1262452Majoris also runs against his half brother Senator in that listed race at Doncaster judge and I can’t see Senator beating him as everything he’s beaten so far has been unprogressive. The horse he beat by l and 3/4 lengths LTO Racemaker was beaten 5 and half lengths by Majoris at Brighton in July.
Great win for the Frankel filly Toulifaut today at Chantilly, now unbeaten in 3 starts.
Interesting to see where she goes next.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...September 8, 2016 at 16:57 #1262454Good news about Toulifaut. Moon Mountain made her debut in the one mile maiden for unraced fillies today at Chantilly, finishing fourth beaten about nine lengths.
September 8, 2016 at 17:47 #1262459Majoris also runs against his half brother Senator in that listed race at Doncaster judge and I can’t see Senator beating him as everything he’s beaten so far has been unprogressive. The horse he beat by l and 3/4 lengths LTO Racemaker was beaten 5 and half lengths by Majoris at Brighton in July.
Great win for the Frankel filly Toulifaut today at Chantilly, now unbeaten in 3 starts.
Interesting to see where she goes next.Yes I had a look at the form and Senator’s is terrible.
I might back Taamol then or the Godolphin horse although really I should give up betting on two year old races as just seems like a long-term losing game.
September 8, 2016 at 20:36 #1262474Yes Senator has beaten nothing but that’s not his fault and I think he will be a lot better for the longer trip. Definitely looks a decent race though with 4 unbeaten colts in it.
Just to say that Toulifaut’s win today means that the win/races ratio for Frankel fillies now stands at a scarcely believable 10/12!!! This includes 3 individual Group winners.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
September 9, 2016 at 09:16 #1262531Yes Senator has beaten nothing but that’s not his fault and I think he will be a lot better for the longer trip. Definitely looks a decent race though with 4 unbeaten colts in it.
Just to say that Toulifaut’s win today means that the win/races ratio for Frankel fillies now stands at a scarcely believable 10/12!!! This includes 3 individual Group winners.
I don’t believe it!!!!
The fillies Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Harba and Moon Mountain have each lost one race. So a paltry 10/14 only. What a shocker!!!
September 9, 2016 at 09:19 #1262532Yes agreed Joni I wouldn’t want to too hard on Senator and 2yo’s can progress rapidly between races however I think MAJORIS has the edge over him today although both horses could go down to SALSABEEL today a horse that beat Law And Order LTO who was very impressive at Newmarket and I know Steve is extremely keen on…hoping for another Frankel success but this is a tricky little race..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...September 9, 2016 at 09:48 #1262536Yes Senator has beaten nothing but that’s not his fault and I think he will be a lot better for the longer trip. Definitely looks a decent race though with 4 unbeaten colts in it.
Just to say that Toulifaut’s win today means that the win/races ratio for Frankel fillies now stands at a scarcely believable 10/12!!! This includes 3 individual Group winners.
I don’t believe it!!!!
The fillies Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Harba and Moon Mountain have each lost one race. So a paltry 10/14 only. What a shocker!!!
Oops – do you know I thought Moon Mountain was a colt. Note MV I said win/RACES ratio. In other words Frankel fillies have been involved in 13 races and won 10 of them.
3 of them out today. Last Kingdom runs over in France and Majoris and Senator go at Donny."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
September 9, 2016 at 10:01 #1262537Thanks again Joni
Almost missed Last Kingdom hope he runs well today in France..off to get a price for my Thread..Frankel may not be ruling the World yet but he’s making a good start in Europe
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...September 9, 2016 at 10:08 #1262539Where is Last Kingdom running today Joni? can’t seem to find him but I’m on my mobile and it keeps jumping around the RP site..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...September 9, 2016 at 11:09 #1262545Jac, he’s down to be running in the Guemel Stakes at Saint-Cloud at 1.30pm today
September 9, 2016 at 11:10 #1262546I have backed Taamol with a saver on Senator.
I agree the form of Senator is terrible but he will improve for the extra furlong in any case and just something about the horse I like. I think he’s more likely to be progressive than Majoris who is a horse I’m not mad on. Maybe it’s when they put the headgear on that puts me off. Cheekpieces, a tongue tie, blinkers etc, as soon as I see a horse wearing something I immediately put a line through it. Not sensible I know.
In fact when I saw Hydroxide was wearing something in only his second run yesterday I knew I had done my dough even though he was only beaten a short head in the end…
Ideal jock for Senator and I have a weakness for anything with a flashy white muzzle. 😉 I accept Jac that you don’t rate him on form but as far as I’m concerned there’s only one place for a formbook, and that’s in the little boys room
September 9, 2016 at 11:30 #1262548I see the Saint Cloud meeting starts at 12 and he is the third race so it could be 1pm not 1.30 – have to check though.
Scrap that – definitely 1.30 French time.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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