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I still haven’t given up on my theory that Idaho is something of a professional loser. This race should confirm whether there is actually any mileage in that idea.
Surely he should be 1/2 to beat this lot but as I write bookmakers are dangling a 10/11 carrot?
Personally, I haven’t got a clue what his ideal trip is but I do know he has come there looking like a winner on more than one occasion and ended up getting beaten.
What to oppose him with?
I haven’t got too much time for Oisin (who also needs to start delivering at this level occasionally) and you have to put a very big line through the last run but it wouldn’t be a total surprise if Imperial Aviator got his career back on track.
ACROSS THE STAR at 7/2 !! You can even back it each way and not lose much if it finishes second.
I am with Stilv on the fav and it looks like a professional loser!! Tripless paceless and clueless about winning!!
Personally I think the Major general will fare best of the AOB trio and could be worth putting in forecasts/exactas
I am with Stilv on the fav and it looks like a professional loser!! Tripless paceless and clueless about winning!!
Seriously do you believe that ?
Idaho may well win it but it always worries me when a horse has all his good form from places in races and then lines up odds on and unbackable each-way.
Idaho won his maiden and was then fired straight into a group 1 in France, on terrible ground. Aidan had said the horse didn’t need to run again last season and I was surprised he lined up as such a hot favourite, straight from a maiden into a group 1.
There have been a couple of times this year that he came looking like a winner but ended up faltering. I actually had him ante-post for the Epsom Derby but not each-way. Despite marking him as a horse to follow this season, I am not that struck on him as a top notcher.
I did Across The Stars for the St Leger at 16/1 and spotted that he was only 2 pts shorter for the Voltigeur, so it seemed a bit of value and I invested at 14/1. Looking at the records, this is by no means Aidan’s race, with only 2 winners. Despite a huge lull in the Stoute stable’s fortunes for a few years, he has a great record in landing the Voltigeur and the only real poor run from his contender this year was in the Epsom Derby, where the jockey accepted quickly that the the horse was not acting on the track and sensibly eased him.
Next time up I backed Across The Stars at good odds and although not stonking form it was encouraging. I feel he would have won his Derby trial if he had got a run.
I admit that I ballsed up my ante-post bet by not considering the 3 lb penalty for Across The Stars but at 14/1 I am happy enough with my position. In all likelihood the Fav will probably spoil the party. I will leave him to those who like backing shorties though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can relate to your post Steve.
I backed Idaho as well to win the Derby before that run in France 25’s beaten by Robin of Navan.
Johannes Vermeer ( what’s happened to him ? ) won the G1 beforehand and i thought the double was on but after the race more or less filed my bet for the Derby.
I dont like to aftertime but i have Idaho at 5’s to win this race and laid off my stake yesterday. Only for £20 but more in hope that the Derby form is better than people give credit for at the moment.
I hope to see a better performance on fast ground for the first time which has always been said he needs.
Boring but think Idaho wins. Got his ideal conditions, fast ground and a galloping track and oesn’t have a Harzand to worry about this time.
Agree, Idaho should take some beating, form is long way in front of any of these. If acting on the ground should win easily. Backed Idaho and saved on the other AOB runners just in case.
Value Is EverythingI thing GT was being sarcastic, botchy.
Yeah, your possibly right.
I thing GT was being sarcastic, botchy.
Not at all LS.
As I said on another thread:
This is the result of the Derby and what’s happened since:Harzand 1st – Won Irish Derby from English Derby 3rd Idaho, the duo 3¾ lengths clear of the 3rd.
In the Epsom Derby had 1½ lengths back to…
US Army Ranger 2nd – Hasn’t run since.
1¼ lengths back to…
Idaho 3rd – see Harzand. Ridden closer to the overly strong pace than other principles at Epsom and not surprisingly got closer to the winner in Ireland. EDIT: Just won the Voltigeur.
5 lengths
Wings Of Desire 4th – Beaten 7¾ lengths by Harzand, only beaten 1¼ lengths by Highland Reel when runner-up in the best mile and a half weight for age race in Britain (King George). Now, later on in the season 1m2f an inadequate trip today. Only one to beat him at Ascot just finished a good second to Postponed in International.
3 lengths
Humphrey Bogart 5th – Well beaten less than 2 weeks later at Royal Ascot and then inadequate trip in America, followed by a slowly run Freer.
1 length
Red Verdon 6th – Beaten out of sight by Harzand at Epsom. Just 4¼ lengths 4th in Irish Derby, then only beaten 1¼ lengths in Group 1 Prix De Paris, with Derby also ran Cloth Of Stars a neck away in 3rd.
2 lengths
Algometer 7th – Not run since.
2 lengths
Cloth Of Stars 8th – See Red Verdon. Pulverised in Derby, close 3rd in a Group 1 in France.
Nose
Massaat 9th – Went lame in only start since.
3 lengths
Across The Stars 10th – Beaten around 19 lengths at Epsom, Won King Edward before good 3 1/4 lengths third in Voltigeur today.
3 lengths
Deauville 11th – Won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational in USA before third over an inadequate trip in Arlington Million.
1¼ lengths
Ulysses 12th – Won Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes in impressive fashion.Think that’ll do.
Seems to me the Derby is working out bloody well.
Apart from Humphrey Bogart who’s had excuses LS, imo every runner from the winner to 12th has upheld the Derby form.
Value Is EverythingThe Voltiguer runner up was rated 105, Across The Stars probably found that ground lively enough and was conceding 3 lbs.
Idaho was entitled to win the race, coming in with a near identical profile to last year’s winner Storm The Stars. The difference was the SP with Idaho odds on and the Haggas colt 3/1.
Idaho is 5/2 for the St Leger. Last season’s winner was no use in the Leger and I am not sure today’s 3rd should be 20/1 for the race, where he will be on levels, travelling further and possibly facing softer ground. There’s a huge difference between 5/2 and 20/1, not sure that the gulf should be that large.
Wings Of Desire was bobbins today but I dare say every poor show will have an excuse attached and every race won will be a cracking renewal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Voltiguer runner up was rated 105, Across The Stars probably found that ground lively enough and was conceding 3 lbs.
Idaho was entitled to win the race, coming in with a near identical profile to last year’s winner Storm The Stars. The difference was the SP with Idaho odds on and the Haggas colt 3/1.
Idaho is 5/2 for the St Leger. Last season’s winner was no use in the Leger and I am not sure today’s 3rd should be 20/1 for the race, where he will be on levels, travelling further and possibly facing softer ground. There’s a huge difference between 5/2 and 20/1, not sure that the gulf should be that large.
Wings Of Desire was bobbins today but I dare say every poor show will have an excuse attached and every race won will be a cracking renewal.
I agree I think the third horse has run a grand race considering. I’m also not certain Idaho is a St Leger horse. He shows good speed and that York track is sharp enough. The test at Doncaster will be very different and I’d rather be on the Stoute horse at a big price than Idaho at his present price.
I can relate to your post Steve.
I backed Idaho as well to win the Derby before that run in France 25’s beaten by Robin of Navan.
Johannes Vermeer ( what’s happened to him ? ) won the G1 beforehand and i thought the double was on but after the race more or less filed my bet for the Derby.
I dont like to aftertime but i have Idaho at 5’s to win this race and laid off my stake yesterday. Only for £20 but more in hope that the Derby form is better than people give credit for at the moment.
I hope to see a better performance on fast ground for the first time which has always been said he needs.
I saw Idaho at 5/1 but didn’t feel sure he would run. By the time it became clear he would, he was too short and I already had Across The Stars at 14/1. I don’t normally do my ante-post each way, preferring to take two to win at big odds instead. It’s only fun money I am betting anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
How has Across The Stars come out of the race?
Is he a definite intended runner now?
When one bookie is double the price of another, and even bigger 24/1 on betfair – alarm bells!Think prospects of Idaho’s staying the St leger trip are around 50/50. Although on form will have a fair bit in hand. At 5/2 I’d be a backer, but don’t have an account with Boyle. At 6/4 I’d be looking to take him on.
Value Is Everything
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