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"Im of the opinion that Our Vic is more 10/1 than 4/5 but its all about opinions and it should be a good race."
Why make a statement like that then?
Colin
I made the statement because I believe he is more 10/1 than 4/5?????
Why else would I make the statement. I didnt want to be rude to someone elses opinion and state the truth which is ‘I would not back Our Vic’ with counterfeit but as you have backed me into a corner there you go. I wouldnt touch him with a barge pole tomorrow. It should be a good race but I dont believe it will be a race that Our Vic will be involved in at the finish.
Please elaborate what was wrong with my statement as the eye rolling doesn’t cut it with me??????
Zoso, I’ll be happy top match any 10/1 you put up on the pink side at BetFair. Just show me the way.
Our Vic gave Neptune Collonges 12lb and a 7L beating over 3m on soft ground in last seasons Charlie Hall. Tomorrow’s opposition will not be able to get him off the bridle in the same manner as Exotic dancer did in the race last year, and I figure he will hack-up..
Neptune Collognes was a 5yo in that race running against an 8yo and that was a cracking performance for a 5yo. He has come of age now so I wouldnt read too much into that race. Also 3m 1 f at Wetherby is one thing but the hill will find him out I think at Cheltenham once again over this trip. When he beat Neptune he was fresh and no matter what anyone says Our Vic is best when fresh. Everything was in his favour that day, Neptune will turn that form upside down this time in my view.
Im afraid I wont be offering you any 10/1 when I can lay at much shorter but I think Our Vic will be a sitting duck up that hill for Madison Du Berlais. I really dont think any of you guys should write the improving 7yo off.
Our Vic rarely puts 2 good races together. After a good run he normally runs below form next time. He may have stayed this sort of trip on a track like Kempton, Aintree and Wetherby but on a testing track I can see him stopping and maybe even being unplaced or pulled up.
When he ran in this race last year he completely ran out of gas and a similar scenario awaits tomorrow. You could argue that the heavy ground made it more testing but I would still be worried. However that was his first run of the season and I am definitely on the side that says he is better when fresh. Also the horse who was 3rd is a national type and out and out stayer as was the 4th. Fundamentalist was badly out of form and was beaten around 100 lengths in 5th and no other horse finished the race.Im of the opinion that Our Vic is more 10/1 than 4/5 but its all about opinions and it should be a good race.
I Don’t really have a view on the race but I couldn’t back your judgement because of "Main danger for me is Paul Nicholls ‘Neptune Collognes’ cant see the winner coming from anywhere else". Our Vic, 2nd in the king george is favouroute for a reason, State Of Play is a Hennessy winner and Simon a Racing Post chase winner, if you can’t see the winner coming from anywhere else you need to eat more carrots mate!
Not having a pop mate and good luck with your bet, I shall be staying out because i think there’s better opportunities elsewhere, but just to say (and I don’t mean to put you off), I think there are more dangers than just Nicholls horse to Pipe’s second string.
To be fair Marb, my opinion is based on a bit more than I fancy the Pipe horse and the main danger is Paul Nicholls horse.
I think Our Vic is a better horse when fresh and there is a chance he can bounce and run below form tomorrow. I would not assume that Madison Du Berlais is the Pipe second string. Timmy Murphy rides Our Vic as it is a David Johnson horse and Scudamore rides Madison as he is the stable jockey.
The current form of the Evan Williams stable puts me off State of Play, just 1 winner from 20 runners this month, 3 runners in the last 2 weeks = all unplaced with 2 of them PU. His run last time when 5th of 6 would be a worry and its possible that this horse is better fresh also. All in all I cant get involved with this one and I think he has been a disappointment since he ran in the Gold Cup last year.
I think Simon is a better horse on soft ground and may want more of a stamina test, I also dont think he is quite up to winning at this level. On OR Madison Du Berlais is rated 2 l/b higher than him so as far as Im concerned Madison should be the shorter price.
I cant see Faasel, Billyvodan or Knowhere being involved in the finish which leaves me with Pipes and Nicholls.
Nicholls will be a danger but may just need the first run for 276 days (though no surprise if he doesn’t and he has won fresh before) and the penalty could be just enough to stop him. He has ran 4 times at Cheltenham and has never been placed (has shown good form here though) and can make mistakes.
I think Madison Du Berlais is one of the runners who is still improving. He has ran 3 times in the month of January (won twice and 3rd of he has also won twice in Feburay so this is his time of year. Although he hasnt won at Cheltenham he always runs a good race here and is fully effective on the track and has plenty of experience here. He is proven on the ground and over the trip and I feel he has a great chance of winning.Thats my opinion in a nutshell and I think I have a great chance of landing the bet.
Apologies for not looking in advance Zoso, but is this the race that Opera Mundi is in, and are the odds you are quoting the odds with Opera Mundi priced up also.
The reason I ask is because I believe Opera Mundi has another engagement on Saturday (I think the Skybet Chase is the other one). I haven’t seen any of the racing for Saturday yet, other than to know what I’ve just said – so does anyone know which race OM will run in? I can’t get onto the RP site for some reason.
Mike
The odds are from Oddschecker and it doesn’t show Opera Mundi as being a runner. RP card doesn’t show Opera as running either so I assume he will be running in the Skybet Chase.
Both for me. Its sad news because its a waste of a great talent but at the same time I think good riddance he’s a wrong un.
Do you know how much Tommo pays for his daily adverts in the Racing POst?
Absolutely nothing, The RP give him free advertising for a 50% split from the premium rate telephone service.
A shocking truth.
Do you think he took it to keep his weight down ????
Drug use is widespread amongst jockeys for keeping there weight down so it is a good possibility. Amphetamines and Coke supress the appetite and also give you energy (whilst on it) so is useful for the punishing schedules they have, early starts and long distance travel as well as the actual riding of the horse.
Im sure many here will argue Im talking rubbish but if you choose to bury your head in the sand then that is your call.I have no more comments on the subject except to say I dont half feel sorry for your girlfriend.
You should buy your own eye drops and chips in my opinion.
I’d be happy to share my chips with you Zoso.
In that case then I would be happy to share my eye drops with you young lady
He always seems to be putting his foot in it………..
Feel sorry for his wife.
She loves it.
If that pair can make it as celebrities then there is hope for us all.
I have no more comments on the subject except to say I dont half feel sorry for your girlfriend.
You should buy your own eye drops and chips in my opinion.
Apologies if I have lost the plot here, but was Fallon found guilty of possession? I was under the assumption that it was use of, and not possession.
Mike
You have not lost the plot Mike he was not found guilty of possession. Although if you accept the fact that he used cocaine then he clearly must have been in possession of cocaine before he took it.
He is in no danger of prison as you can not be charged for having it show up in a blood sample. But he was lucky he got caught after he had taken it and not before. Cocaine ruins many peoples lives including innocent children and I wont defend anybody who has anything to do with it even though some of you may just because he was a good jockey.People have been sent to prison for cocaine possesion before so the man has got off lightly in my view.
I would be surprised if people had been sent to prison for possessing cocaine without "intent to sell" but I stand to be corrected here.
In reality you are highly unlikely to be sent to prison for Cocaine possession as long as it is less than 1 gram. Any ammount over 1 gram of Cocaine and the police can charge you with possession with intent to supply. Many people have been sent to prison for cocaine possession although these people will have been caught before and recieved cautions etc.
cocaine
CLASS A
AMOUNT CONSIDERED ‘SUPPLY’ 1 gram
MAX PUNISHMENT (supply) life and an unlimited fine
MAX PUNISHMENT (possession) 7 years and an unlimited fine
AVERAGE PUNISHMENT (in reality) 3 years 3 months and £167 fine
CAUTIONED 819
FOUND GUILTY 2,642
IMPRISONED 411
(source: UK Home Office, 1998)our comments the police are hard on cocaine. One drugs unit police officer we spoke to told us that a quantity in the region of one gram would be sufficient grounds to suspect possession with intent to supply.
Its a worldwide ban.
People have been sent to prison for cocaine possesion before so the man has got off lightly in my view.
Sure he likes a bet but the idea that he messing around with the horses chances of realistically being tuned up for a top race to land a few quid is simply betting shop drivel
I doubt very much Witchita Linesman was pulled out of Saturdays race due to JP wanting the price to drift. There is probably a valid reason for it,
But if anyone seriously thinks that Jonjos comments, making out he was scared of the opposition was true then perhaps you belong in a betting shop.
Time will tell. Im sure JP will be having one almighty punt on one of his horses at the festival. Lets just wait and see which one it turns out to be.
Zoso – if u believe Paddy Power or any other high street firm have the heads up on Jp’s runners u are sadly deluded my friend.
And Carvills he didn’t become a millionaire by backing anything, he got his tank together by laying. How do u think Frank Berry is still in a job!!?
I think I will stay deluded my friend. Ladbrokes have no connection to Aiden O Brien either.
