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you should read these threads before you post Zoso- I made exactly the same point several pages ago! Great minds, eh
WowI actually just read your latest piece on the value thread and agreed with everything you said.
This could be the start of a beautiful forum relationship
One thing you have to remember about a tipster in a newspaper is they have to get the tips in the day before racing. Im not sure what the deadline is but I would guess it would be quite early.
Its easy to knock a newspaper tipster, but from the time they gave the tip out a lot of things could have changed. The ground could have changed, price could be completely different than what they were expecting, loads of things could have happened.
The likliehood is that most of the racing press tipsters are pretty decent in there own right but they have a tough job.
I think especially with the racing posts new set up of a tipster having one day a week, a tipster has the chance to be outrageously unlucky. They may have a winning day 6 days a week and then on the day when they are published they have a losing day. A tipster who has 6 out of 7 winning days is doing exceptionally well, but could well be unlucky on that 1 day when the work is published. It goes with the territory that you are open to abuse as a racing post tipster and I guess you just have to accept that and deal with it.
All tipsters will have good days all tipsters will have bad days. Its a free service and it is up to anyone who decides to follow it. I hate it when a tipster agrees with my fancy as it normally means the price will shorten but I am delighted when an RP tipster naps one of my lays.Zoso,
Hmmmm. You are that good Zoso?
Your information is that good, you know everything about every horse in a race not to need a form book.
Wow!
How did you get these knowledgeable connections in so many yards? None of your business
And to be able to make a profit without winning 16.67% of your 5/1 bets etc. Unbelieveable, I am not worthy.-Your talking baloney, all I said is that the table is purely mathematical and if your selections arent up to scratch you are not getting value
You are better than Alan Potts, Dave Nevison, Steve Mellish, Eddie Freemantle and John Noakes put together.- Maybe I am better than all of the mentioned names, maybe Im not fit to lace there shoelaces, you have no basis to make an assumption either way.Zoso,
On the never ending ‘value’ thread, you have stated that this bet pays 8.25/1 for a place.
I’d be most interested to know which bookmaker pays 1/4 odds a place in novice hurdles, as I suspect would many other punters.
AP
Apologies AP, I made a mistake in my over excited state, it is of course 1/5 the odds with all bookmakers. No idea why I worked it out to 1/4 the odds a place on the thread.
That said I have backed Jeu Desprit today at 33/1 e/w, I do not think this has the best chance of winning, as the favourite will be very hard to beat. I have opted for this one as it pays 8.25/1 on the place and I feel it has the best chance of placing and if the fav does run flat which is always possible with any horse then you never know I may just land a good winner. If Jeu Desprit is well beaten and unplaced then I have not got any value I have simply read the race wrong.
My work is done for the day. Have a good un Ginger
I work purely and simply from the Racing Post website and inside information. I have never bought a form book in my life.
So what form books do you get Zoso?
There you go again, assuming I buy form books.
You appear to believe there is a written in stone way to win from betting long term and anyone who doesnt follow those rules will lose.
Your mistaken yet again.
Lets put it this way. If I didnt understand value then its a total impossibility that I would still be standing 5 years later.
I have had a cheeky e/w bet on Jeu Desprit at 33/1 in this race. Think he looks way overpriced. I am playing for a place as opposed the win though. Would be a major shock if the fav was beaten today.
Hi Bermin
I would say Richards Sundance is fairly solid to be placed though he has a tough job to beat the Nicholls odds on favourite, and I would consider it a surprise if the fav was beaten. I would say its a decent e/w bet though and may even win.
I would be wary about Marcus. I think he needs a longer trip and could get outpaced at this sharp track, he is unproven on soft ground, he is unproven on a sharp track. He gets a handicap mark after todays race and may not be giving it his all so to speak. So I would tread very carefully with that one. That said the fav doesn’t exactly look rock solid and though I would say the fav is the likliest winner it would be no surprise if it was beaten but if it is beaten it wont necessarily be by Marcus.
Thats my opinions but dont let me put you off if you fancy them.
Anything is achievable including a 50k loss. The size of your starting bank would be key as to what you would hope to achieve in a year.
My ex boss has about 200k in one of his betfair accounts that he uses for some football system. This may sound like he is an extremely successful punter but the reality is he is an extremely successful business man who has made millions through a completely different line of work. I would say almost for certain that he loses money on betfair long term.Thats right Zoso, everyone wishes they did not start something when they are proven to be wrong.
Oh god, did you have to reply. Im the type of chap who cant help myself.
All you proved was the equivalent of: If you had 4 pound coins in your left pocket and 2 pound coins in your right pocket then you have 6 pound.
You were simply quoting basic mathematics. Im clearly in the right. If you back a horse and I back a horse in the same race, whoever had the winner was the one who got the value. End of story. I beg you not to replyu and if you do, then please please please do not quote me that table malarkey again. I dont know why but it drives me mad.
I wish I had never started this thread.; I find it repulsively boring now. Its like a car crash, I dont want to look but I cant help it, so god willing it will drop away.
http://geo.channel4.com/player/simulcast/index.jsp
You can watch channel 4 on line at this website. It says you have to be a UK resident to register, which I assume is fine for you. You would need to look into whether you could access this website online from the USA as Im not sure about that.
GT,
I think your last post should answer your critics because you have made it clear that odds are formed by opinions.
No-one can argue against the fact that if you back 25 winners at 4/1 out of 100 bets at the same odds, you will make a profit and prove to the satisfaction of nearly everyone that you have obtained value odds for your bets.
Of course no one can argue that if you back 25 winners at 4/1 out of 100 bets at the same odds then you will make a profit.
I think you guys are mixing up basic mathematics with what the term ‘value’ means.
Wow