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I wish I had never started this thread.; I find it repulsively boring now. Its like a car crash, I dont want to look but I cant help it, so god willing it will drop away.
Thats right Zoso, everyone wishes they did not start something when they are proven to be wrong.
Value Is EverythingConsider me an official mourner, here to mark the death of a well respected but now slightly decrepit thread.
No need to take umbrage, oh red-headed one. For what it’s worth, I admire your determination and agree with your logic. (Whilst of course respecting the methods of those who prefer to use a drawing pin/knitting needle/water diviners/Mark Winstanley to make their selections).
Thats right Zoso, everyone wishes they did not start something when they are proven to be wrong.
Oh god, did you have to reply. Im the type of chap who cant help myself.
All you proved was the equivalent of: If you had 4 pound coins in your left pocket and 2 pound coins in your right pocket then you have 6 pound.
You were simply quoting basic mathematics. Im clearly in the right. If you back a horse and I back a horse in the same race, whoever had the winner was the one who got the value. End of story. I beg you not to replyu and if you do, then please please please do not quote me that table malarkey again. I dont know why but it drives me mad.
"If out of that sample of a hundred he thinks there are 50 of those that should be less than 4/1 on your advice he should back them and would win,EH? If he thinks anything has a less than 20% chance he should not be backing it at 4/1.
however there is still the probablility that those fifty will fall into the 80 beaten 4/1 shots. Right ?
EH? Don’t quite understand your last bit."Apologies for the above I was at work so rushed it a bit.
Ginger what I was trying to say was this.
A sample of 100 horses which all have an SP returned of 4/1. The probability of a 4/1 shot is 20% and in practice 4/1 chances win nearly 20% of the time. If out of that sample you think that 50 of those 4/1 chances should be say 3/1 you would advise to bet them. However from that sample of 100 SP’s of 4/1 there will be 80 losers. So there is a probability that all of your 3/1 chances that are actually 4/1 will be all included in the 80 losers ? Clear as mud
Zoso
You really can not see past the one race can you. Until you can it is pointless trying to explain the table of odds and chances anymore. Had you answered my questions I could have made it easir for you to understand, but you clearly do not have the confidence in your argument to answer them. Your concept of value comes from the Thommo / Lesley Graham school which teaches false value, not the true value from the table of odds and chances. Every professional gambler uses this table, if that does not tell you something nothing will.
From your “spreadsheetâ€Value Is EverythingI am a professional gambler ie- my only form of income comes from gambling and this has been the case for the last 5 years. So yet again you have made another wild and evidenceless based prediction as I do not use the table of odds.
How much of your starting tank is left, Zoso?
Don’t answer that – I’m just being mischevious.
Lets put it this way. If I didnt understand value then its a total impossibility that I would still be standing 5 years later.
and would be a lot of fun for everyone..
Bless you Fist of Fury but do you know, I really don’t think it would be.
I do so love these value threads. Everyone is SO very angry but no-one quite knows why, like a party of drunken tramps who simply run out of expletives and cheap cider and fall asleep in their respective shop doorways.
Or perhaps like so many Father Jacks slumbering in their festering chairs, waking suddenly with an angry cry of, ‘Value! [expletive]! Mordin!’ before slumping back into unconciousness.
So, are we all done yet?
Ginger
"Aaron
I have never talked about SP’s. There is absolutely no point in taking SP bets, because I do not know if they will be value or not. The 4/1 shots I talk about are either early prices or board prices, prices you can take. But you are right your question is as clear as mud. "Ok, lets try this way. There are a hundred horses who have gone off at an SP of 3/1. Of that 100 you have backed 50 of them as you have taken your "value" price dependent on your calculation of their odds against what was offered, for example morning price was 7/2 , your price 5/2. Based on its starting price since 1998 horses that finished at an SP of 3/1 have won 22.8% of their races. So therefore is it still possible that the 50 you have backed at your value price are included in the 73 losing 3/1 chances. A simple YES or NO will do.
Zoso,
There is no way that a horse with the best chance of winning, BEFORE THE RACE, would be allowed to go off at 18/1. D’Argent was a great bet at 20/1 with his record at the course, on the ground and distance, well handicapped on his best form. However, in his two races prior to Warwick this horse finished 12th of 13 finishers (almost 40 lengths behind the winner), and pulled up on his reappearance. Are you really suggesting it had a better chance than Arnold Lane (3/1fav). Even if D’Argent did get edgy in first time blinkers, raced freely at Newbury and might have needed the race on his reappearance.
Arnold Layne, still improving, well weighted, ran a great race when winning last time over course and distance, on similar going, described by Timeform as “notably fluentâ€Value Is EverythingSo what form books do you get Zoso?
There you go again, assuming I buy form books.
You appear to believe there is a written in stone way to win from betting long term and anyone who doesnt follow those rules will lose.
Your mistaken yet again.
I work purely and simply from the Racing Post website and inside information. I have never bought a form book in my life.
That said I have backed Jeu Desprit today at 33/1 e/w, I do not think this has the best chance of winning, as the favourite will be very hard to beat. I have opted for this one as it pays 8.25/1 on the place and I feel it has the best chance of placing and if the fav does run flat which is always possible with any horse then you never know I may just land a good winner. If Jeu Desprit is well beaten and unplaced then I have not got any value I have simply read the race wrong.
My work is done for the day. Have a good un Ginger
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