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Yes
Give me 10-11 Kauto Star in a match against Mistral De La Cour around Exeter – and you are giving me value, albeit not a certain winner.
Good. This is one of my favourite quotes from a book:
Value is the most misunderstood word in racing-from the betting shop loud mouth right through to the respected so called experts. It was just a few moments ago I once again listened to a major pundit on the television telling all the viewers that he "never bets at odds on-because it doesn’t represent any value". It is difficult to imagine a more inane and meaningless statement, and yet I am aware that this man is widely known to have an intelligent quotient which is well above average. So what brings him to make such a brainless comment, which would insult the intelligence of a gnats armpit.
Zoso,
Ah, so you are only here to wind people up, it seems.
You have already said you are prepared to back a horse regardless of the price and several people have said they will bet at odds on if they think the bet is’value’, so why the question?
I have never once said I will back a horse regardless of the price. Please find where I have said that and quote it. (You cant so dont even bother looking).
Why the question??? It stirs debate and a forum is a place for debate.
Your statement is ludicrous to say the least. I am certainly not here to agree with people if I disagree with the opinion.
I take it from your comment that you just agree with all and sundry as long as they are "one of the faces"
Zoso,
You are quite prepared to back a ‘certainty’ at 2/1 on, but perhaps not 25/1 on, so my ‘regardless of price’ assertion was wrong.
I’m trying to make the point that you are arguing against yourself here.
You cannot play the devil’s advocate and the pope at the same time.For anyone who does not believe true value rules every bet:
You’d be quite happy to win less than 16.67% of your 5/1 bets then, is that right? Answer the question lads.
Just picking one small phrase out of my post again I see.
It does not matter if a particular 5/1 shot wins or loses, AS LONG AS MORE THAN 16.67% OF YOUR 5/1 BETS WIN. Say this particular 5/1 shot does win, but you do not win 16.67% of your 5/1 bets, then you LOSE over all.
Let’s take a roll of a dice. The chance of any number coming up is 5/1, anyone backing on the roll should only back it at better than 5/1. I know, I know, in racing we are not talking about certain odds. Let’s take this example then.
Someone brings a loaded dice in to a pub and starts throwing it, I note what number comes up each time. After 100 throws a bookie comes in to the pub and says he will be betting on the outcome. He throws it another 100 times and notes (as I do) what number is thrown.
Of his 100 throws:
1 comes up 15 times.
2, 18 times.
3, 9 times.
4, 25 times.
5, 13 times.
6, 20 times.He converts his percentages to odds and adds his bookies mark up. Offering:
1, 15% + 3% = 18% = 9/2
2, 18% + 2% = 20% = 4/1
3, 9% + 2% = 11% = 8/1
4, 25% + 3% = 28% = 5/2
5, 13% + 2% = 15% = 11/2
6, 20% + 2% = 22% = 7/2Of my 200 throws:
1, comes up 27 times.
2, 36 times.
3, 25 times.
4, 48 times.
5, 27 times.
6, 37 times1, 27 divided by 2 = 13.5% = 13/2
2, 36 = 18% = 9/2
3, 25 = 12.5% = 7/1
4, 48 = 24% = 100/30
5, 27 = 13% = 13/2
6, 37 = 18.5% = 9/2I have studied form for twice as long as the bookmaker.
1, If I win 13.5% of my bets at 9/2 loser.
2, 18% strike rate at 4/1 loser.
3, 12.5% strike rate at 8/1 WINNER.
4, 24% SR at 5/2 loser.
5, 13% SR at 11/2 loser.
6, 18.5% SR at 7/2 loser.
From my form study (opinion) 3 has the worst chance of winning, almost half the chance of 4 coming up. Yet at the bookmakers prices 3 is the only number worth backing. I have £30 on at 8/1.
You, knowing 4 has the best chance of winning, have £1000 on at 5/2.It does not matter what the result of this throw is. From form study and looking at the prices available, 3 is the best bet. But lets say it comes up 4.
YOU WIN and feeling smug go home £2500 better off. Congratulations.
The bookie leaves, miffed the favourite has come up and cleared him out in one go.
I leave £30 worse off, but knowing that if I take 8/1 about every 7/1 chance, in the end, I will make a profit. And you, by backing 100/30 shots at 5/2 will eventually lose.
If it is the only bet you are ever going to have, then I can just about excuse it. But if you bet often, you will end up losing and losing big time.The only way a punter can win over all is to get value in true odds terms.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Gingertipster
No matter how often you repeat your tedious mantra (must be close to double figures already
) there are no true odds in horseracing, just as there is no true value, just prices formed from opinions.Ginger
What you didn’t know was that before you arrived the dice had already been thrown 600 times with 3 coming up only 56 times. therefore over the total 900 throws 3 came up 90 times = 10% and "true odds" of 9/1. I wouldn’t take that 8/1 if I were you.
I’m with what reet said "there are no true odds in horseracing, just as there is no true value, just prices formed from opinions."
The whole subject is completely subjective.
Gingertipster
No matter how often you repeat your tedious mantra (must be close to double figures already
) there are no true odds in horseracing, just as there is no true value, just prices formed from opinions.But if some opinion is better informed than others surely that places some in a better position, call it ‘value’, ‘edge’, ‘squiddly-doo-dah’ or whatever?
Rob
GT
I think the way you have tried to put across the importance of ‘value’ in betting is admirable. Plenty of explanation and examples make it easy for most people to understand. I have only one reservation.
You have made it clear on a few occasions that no-one can know what the true prices are, yet in your many examples you seem to be implying that these ‘true odds’ do exist and that one only has to beat these odds to obtain ‘value’. I am clear in my own mind what you mean, but some people might find it difficult to grasp or confuse the terms ‘true odds’ and ‘value odds’.
True odds are really only applicable, as you know, to objective probabilities such as dice and playing cards.Value odds are easy to recognise in such games.
In horse racing, true odds do not have any objective existence, being only an estimate of a horse’s chance in the mind of the punter. Value odds are also subjective, being perceived by the punter when he thinks the present odds are higher than his estimation of what the odds should be.
There is a valid argument that true odds in subjective probability events can be approximated (by using historical data) to bookmaker’s odds and perhaps some people think the two are exactly the same.
I did not say there were any known true odds in horse racing. The true odds of a 16.67% chance is 5/1, fact. Therefore if a punter THINKS a horse has a 16.67% chance of winning he should back the horse ONLY if he can get better than 5/1.
You seem to be saying it is impossible to estimate the percentage chance of each horse in a race. Is this right? But that is clearly not true, if this were the case then every horses early price would be the same.
The exchanges have an impact on bookmakers early prices nowadays but let’s go back to when Betfair etc. did not exist. How did the bookmakers produce their early prices? These are given before the punters backed anything, with as yet no fluctuation of the betting market. Answer: they employed an odds compiler to produce them. He would work out what he thought were the percentage chances of each horse to 100%. Then add the bookmakers mark up.
So if an odds compiler can work out what he believes are the percentage chances of each horse in the race why do you think it is impossible for us punters?
As you say, these bookmakers prices are not known percentages, they are only estimations, plus a bookies mark up.
If the odds compiler believed a particular horse has an 18% (almost 9/2) chance of winning, he adds a 2% mark up, making it 20% and so the bookie offers 4/1. If the punter has studied the form and in his opinion it has a 23% (100/30) chance. Backing what he believes are 100/30 chances at 4/1 would show a profit, so 4/1 in his opinion is a good bet.
I say again, it does not matter if this horse wins or loses, as long as he wins more than 20% of his bets at 4/1. If he is a good judge of probabilities he will make a profit.Please can the non believers of the table of odds and chances answer the questions I ask.[/b]
Value Is EverythingI can’t for the life of me understand your logic Ginger. You talk about throwing dice and having 200 bets……..then you say if you bet often you will lose.
You talk about 13/8 shots must have 38% chance of winning or better to be value.
please explain to me how exactly do you get to 38%.
If you can’t answer that in a sensible manner then your whole theory is worthless.
That’s the one question you must be able to answer as your whole theory is based around it.
So lets have it…………….thanks
- Total Posts 17716
OK smartass.
I defy you to price up one race accurately (to the 2 decimal points you keep shoving down our throats) BEFORE THE RACE on this forum
If you can do it, I will shut up.
If you can’t, will you?As a special favour to a newbie, you can have 10 tries!
Ginger:
Say if we both worked on the same race. You priced your book up and decided Red Rum was a 5/1 shot. You checked the prices and it was trading at 10/1. You would obviously be backing that horse as you felt you had value.
Say I worked on the same race and I decided that Desert Orchid was the likliest winner. It was trading at 10/1 also so I backed it E/W.
If Red Rum won the race then it was you who got the value.
If Desert Orchid won the race then it was me who got the value.Simple as that.
Surely you ,must understand that if I thought Desert Orchid was the likliest winner of the race then in my belief then that horse should have been trading as favourite. Obviously as it wasnt favourite, I have clearly got value. Unless of course it lost and in that case I simply read the race wrong and made a mistake.
Ginger
you wrote "I say again, it does not matter if this horse wins or loses, as long as he wins more than 20% of his bets at 4/1. If he is a good judge of probabilities he will make a profit."
But if he can win more than 20% of his bets at 4/1 he’s going to make a profit anyway regardless of what price he thinks it should be.
At the end of the day if he backs a hundred 4/1 chances he will need them to win 20 races to break even. If out of that sample of a hundred he thinks there are 50 of those that should be less than 4/1 on your advice he should back them and would win, however there is still the probablility that those fifty will fall into the 80 beaten 4/1 shots. Right ?
GT,
I think your last post should answer your critics because you have made it clear that odds are formed by opinions.
No-one can argue against the fact that if you back 25 winners at 4/1 out of 100 bets at the same odds, you will make a profit and prove to the satisfaction of nearly everyone that you have obtained value odds for your bets.
GT,
I think your last post should answer your critics because you have made it clear that odds are formed by opinions.
No-one can argue against the fact that if you back 25 winners at 4/1 out of 100 bets at the same odds, you will make a profit and prove to the satisfaction of nearly everyone that you have obtained value odds for your bets.
Of course no one can argue that if you back 25 winners at 4/1 out of 100 bets at the same odds then you will make a profit.
I think you guys are mixing up basic mathematics with what the term ‘value’ means.
) there are no true odds in horseracing, just as there is no true value, just prices formed from opinions.
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