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Zoso
Thanks for your concern but I’m quite secure thank you, even more so since my wife delivered my firstborn son early this morning!I’m curious about your motivation on here as I would price it 1/20 inflating your own ego, 10/1 helping us poor souls on here with our betting, 33/1 self-improvement, with the jolly the value
If you will allow one of us mere mortals to instruct just a little (I’m feeling a bit paternal) one obvious fact strikes me: You are infected with the common fallacy that there is a predetermined "result" in every race and all you have to do is find that result to be profitable. In reality, especially in jump racing, there are many possible results. Take the Knowhere race for example. If you were to run the race again in a parallel universe, perhaps Neptune Collonges wouldn’t clobber that downhill fence and might go on to win, or Our Vic might be ridden more quietly and be produced half-way up the run in to score under Timmy. The point is that we can’t know in advance what will happen in a race but that all we can do is make the best guess we can with the facts at our disposal- these include a million variables such as the form of the horses, the going, our knowledge of the track, the jockeys’ riding styles, the likely tactics in the race etc etc.
To say that if your horse loses it wasn’t value is ridiculous- supposing it falls at the last 10 lengths clear? Likewise your horse wins narrowly at a short price and you realise something you hadn’t taken into account after the race( the horse bursts a blood vessel and had done so before unknown to you)- in that case you may have got lucky, collecting on a bad-value bet.
The art of punting is to do enough work beforehand to have reasonable confidence (and that’s all it can ever be) that you can assess the probabilities of various horses winning. The more work you do and hence the more information you collate, the more likely you are to be accurate. Once you’ve done that, if the price(s) offered are significantly at variance with that assessment then you make a bet or bets. The only way you can prove that your probability assessments are accurate is by consistent profits in a large enough sample size to eliminate chance. Whatever people say about their methods, if they are consistent winners that’s what they’re doing- the fact that some people want to find "the winner" still works as long as they have the discipline to avoid a bet on "the winner" if the odds are poor- this may be an instinctive thing, and may not involve the construction of a "tissue" or formal calculation of probabilities.There are some very clever people on here Zoso, many of whom do make the game pay and who I’ve been privileged to learn from over the last few years. I hope you came to realise that you too can learn a lot from them.When Alan Potts spoke of confidence bordering on arrogance I’m sure he meant in private- a more modest man on here you couldn’t meet.
Maybe after we’ve heard your opinion on a number of races beforehand we may come to respect your judgement, but at the moment you are a gassy bloke with a list of bets posted long after the events have taken place. For all that, your posts have brightened up the place and I’m sure you’ll be welcome here if you don’t talk down to us!Congratulations, carvillshill.
NB: She will now hound you remorselessly to quit punting. Even the "I only do value bets" argument will flat on it’s face, as she will be looking to reserve every available kopek for the nippers education at Yale. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Hope everyone is doing well – good on yer.
Congratulations on the baby.
I am arrogant when it comes to racing although in real life my feet are firmly on the ground. If I disagree with an opinion then I will say what I believe to be right. If anyone wants to take offence I wont lose any sleep over that. Anybody is welcome to disagree with any of my opinions in fact its healthy debate and I would find it very boring if everyone agreed.
As for backing 1/20 that I need to inflate my own ego on here then that would be a poor value choice to be fair. If im expected to agree with someone because they are respected on here then the respected poster will be out of luck if I happen to disagree. If im expected to agree with someone just because someone is in the racing media then that person is also out of luck. Everyone is treated with equal respect and I say what I think, if that is a bad thing then so be it. If it makes anyone feel better to try and have a pop at me for my opinions then thats fine with me. I have learnt from one of the best judges in the racing world, and I know my stuff, Im comfortable with that (there goes my ego again)
I’ll save Smithy the effort of posting this…
Wonder how many times peoples perception of value is based on the Racing Post’s tissue prices. Obviously the many successful professional punters all posting on this thread would not claim such, but I’m sure there are some mugs out there (never on internet forums I note) that would do so.
I’ll save Smithy the effort of posting this…
Wonder how many times peoples perception of value is based on the Racing Post’s tissue prices. Obviously the many successful professional punters all posting on this thread would not claim such, but I’m sure there are some mugs out there (never on internet forums I note) that would do so.
I’ll be honest, Ive hit a few decent enough winners by going by what the racing post expect a horse to be and them being well off, of course you have to take into consideration that the horse in question is a negative in the betting, but some stables dont really back their horses, and if they have underestimated a hype horse or a massive gamble which goes wrong they are sometimes right. I sort of picked arturio out on this basis on saturday as agreed with the racing posts price of 7/2jfav looking at his form, and the betting was giving 7-1.
The best case of this Ive had was a few years ago on the friday of aintee, the racing post had a horse called His Nibs down as the favorite, in the last race I think, spotlight even called it the leading contender and all its form looked to put it right up there, I looked up at the price and it was 16-1, I had a bet on it and it won easily like the Racing Post had said.
I dont think anyone ever really solely uses this but you never know, Ive seen people in betting shops doing £200 doubles with only the two next race times and the words "fav +fav" where they havent even looked at the form. And I once had a bloke come up to me after he’d just got chinned on a £400 bet saying "I was going to do that one (the winner) but Ive never heard of its jockey before" The jockey was Steve Drowne. Theres some crazy people out there…
Ive seen people in betting shops doing £200 doubles with only the two next race times and the words "fav +fav" where they havent even looked at the form.
Happened a couple of years back in a Nottingham Joe’s one Friday evening. Doing my brains all afternoon at Newbury; driving myself to tears trying to back val…er…big priced winners. Some geezer from a Tarmac gang pops in, has a cursory look at the screens; finds a betting slip. By chance, he’s standing next to me and I look over his shoulder. He scrawls "£100 across the card double Fav/Fav". Hands over the wedge of twenties to the counterhound.
Ten minutes later, he collects just shy of a grand which he sticks nonchalantly in his arse pocket like Doc Holliday trousering a smoking six-gun. Don’t you just hate it when that happens?
Congratulations on the new addition, Carvills. You won’t regret it.
I have learnt from one of the best judges in the racing world
I learnt from books by Beyer, Mordin, Gibby, May and more, i also learnt and i’m still learning from reading posts and articles by people like Simon Rowlands, Graeme North, Alan Potts. James Willoughby James Knight, Paul Smith, Ian Davies, EC1, Doc, Gerry McDonnel. Mr Onemore. Robert99, Warbler, Gareth Flynn. Desert Orchid and many, many more whose names i can’t be arsed to type, who have been kind enough to pass on their thoughts about racing, other sports and betting on this electronic highway
Many of the people on this electronic highway have great knowledge about horse racing, other sports and betting , but not one of em told me they had been learnt by one of the best in the racing world or posted a speadsheet to show how good they were and left me thinking give it a rest pal your just making yourself look like the normal Betfair Forum attention seeking poster
I hope my thinking is wrong
You don’t have to show us or brag to that your a winning punter Zoso, just post an opinion or two and show little respect to those who are kind enough to give you a reply
edit. must mention Chompy the draw maestro
Zoso:
My 100% book post was only to show you how it could be done using probabilities and percentages, after careful form study. How to get true value is entirely up to each individual punter, speed ratings, Timeform, whatever.
There is only one way to skin a cat called profit, that is to get Value.
There is more than one way to skin a cat called Value.
All I am saying is there is such a thing as getting value without winning. It is impossible to make a profit over a long period without getting true value,
As I said a punter needs to win more than 16.67% of his bets at 5/1 to make a profit (assuming level stakes). That is not opinion, that is a fact. Do you dispute it Zoso?
Therefore any horse / selection thought to have a 16.67% chance of winning should only be be backed at bigger than 5/1. Do you dispute that fact Zoso?
Would you be happy to win less than 16.67% of your 5/1 bets Zoso?
Something thought to have a 12.5% chance should only be backed at better than 7/1. Do you dispute that fact Zoso?
To find the percentage chance of each price add the two figures together, then divide the second figure by that resultant figure. Then x that by 100.5/1
5 + 1 = 6
1 Divided by 6 = 0.1667
0.1667 x 100 = 16.67
5/1 = 16.67%Dave Nevison, Eddie Freemantle, John Noakes, Alan Potts they are all professional gamblers, they all know the table of odds and chances off by heart. Even the ones who don’t go by form particularly, paddock judges like Chris Arzani know the table and use it. Every punter who wants to make an over all profit should memorise it. If he does not he may end up backing horses at say 13/8, when he does not realise to be considered value it has to have a better than 38% chance of winning. It is infinately easier to make a profit knowing the table of odds and chances than without it.
If you said a particular horse in a race is value, I might not agree, but I can not say you are definitely wrong. Nobody knows what is or is not value. But the only way to make a profit is to get value in the long run. Unless it comes from a few big wins, which is pure luck. Nobody knows which 20/1 shots are going to win before the race starts, nobody knows what 5/1 shots or 4/6 shots are going to win. But over a considerable amount of time, if you win more than 4.76% of your 20/1 bets at 20/1 and 60% of your 4/6 bets you can say you got value.
I probably could learn a thing or two from you Zoso, about racing as well as diet. But not about value, please don’t be blinkered..
You stated you knew what value was Zoso, but if you did not know the significance of the table of odds and chances then you did not know what TRUE VALUE was at all. Do not be offended Zoso, it is not your fault. As I said in my thread it is the racing medias fault. Because they do not explain and publisise something so vitally important, most punters do not know it. If a trainer does not tell punters a horse has had a wind operation since its last run, it effects how the betting public view the chances of that and every horse in the race. John McCrirrick would rightly go mental saying the trainer “put punters awayâ€Value Is EverythingI haven’t been bothered to read through the 6 pages that another value thread has managed to fill, but what mistake in the definition of ‘value’ did Zoso make?
Is there 2 groups of people here:
(1) Think that the winner of the race would win that race over and over again. Therefore, it’s all about finding that horse.
(1) Think that the winner of the race won that running of the race and, if the race was run 1,000 times other horses would win too (some might win it more often). Therefore, it’s all about the %ge of times each horse would win and finding the one whose odds are too high.
Steve
Zoso wrote:
"There is no value in backing a loser no matter how you try and dress it up."
Precisely. I agree entirely.
Though, in fairness to those seekers of value; the expectation/hope factor overrides evrything else before the event and to the eternal optimists among us, the possiblity of defeat/loss does not enter the equation at this stage, and of course hindsight, as they say, is indeed a wonderful thing…
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Very well put, Drone. I was thinking along the same lines. How priceless are children, even though they all eventually disappoint us?
I also thought Carvillshill’s post was excellent, but I fear that he may well be casting pearls in this unnecessarily prolonged exchange of views.
If people cannot see what should be self-evident, maybe they should be left alone with their muddled thoughts. It reminds me of the blind faith and pleadings of various religions in the face of cold yet proven science.
Way beyond this little orb, great universes are clashing into each other in an unpredictable way and some still believe that what a few humans and horses will do later today is already fated to happen.
Very well put, Drone. I was thinking along the same lines. How priceless are children, even though they all eventually disappoint us?
.Priceless? I know I would pay four figures for a decent night’s sleep at the moment!
Congratulations Carvillshill….
Does anyone here think that backing a horse at odds on can be classed as a value bet?
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