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I have been looking forward to seeing Steinbeck run all winter, but I think he is SEVERLY underpriced at 11/4. For a horse that has only ran twice in its life, coming from a stable whose horses are desperately requiring their first run at the moment, I would have thought there would be a bit of value about the horse?
In saying that however, he doesn’t have too much to beat in my opinion. I still do not see Canford Cliffs as a top class miler at present and I believe he will not see out a true hard mile. Xtension ran quite poor in the guineas to what I expected and the other main contenders are Steinbeck’s stablemates.
It seems a silly thing to say with St Nicholas Abbey only ever having ran over a mile but I am extremely confident that he will win the Derby. I think the further he goes the better he will be. I think that he will probably be back at some stage over 1m 2f and perhaps even 1m to prove he is "As good as Sea The Stars" (In my opinion this is rubbish, the latter being one of the best horses I am likely to see.)
The fact after two derby trial winners O’Brien is still siding with this horse should be a hint in itself. I do, however, feel the value has gone now and would not touch a fraction below 7/2.
Completely agree with musicfan here. I can’t believe how this thread has started with everybody slagging O’Brien off and at the moment everybody is changing their minds and are now everybodys anger is at the stewards. For once, I do not believe O’Brien is in the wrong.
I do not think it was Danny Cook’s fault, if it was any other jockey nobody would be coming down on him so severely. It has seriously angered me seeing what people have wrote on this topic. Leave the poor lad alone!
I think the officials at the course are in the wrong to be honest. From what I remember when watching the race, it was only another horse which stopped the winner from going out past the hurdle also.
WHY, must also be asked are people waving chequered flags, not one, but many, when it is quite obvious to anybody within a quater of a mile that screens are up.
This is an absoloute joke and the only reason that the race was taken away was because there were no arrows in the hurdles.
I hope Danny picks his head up quick enough and was happy to see he rode a winner later on
The horse was not tired, the horse was on the bridle with about 2f to go with every other horse going hell for leather. If I would have had money on that (Which a lot of people who seek out "value" would have) I would be furious.
I was not financially involved in any way, I followed the horse with a keen interest all of last year and was cheering him on as a fan. The horse cruised into contention and Murtagh was so weak that had it been an amatuer riders handicap he would be fined, banned and the rest.
Why should it be a rule for one stable and a different rule for another. The horse could quite easily have won that race with one slap. He didn’t even hit top gear.
The fact that the Prix Ganay is three weeks away proves O’Brien used this race to blow away the horses cobwebs. Or as those who aren’t breaking rules would say, training in public.
This does, however, have to be the first time people are moaning that top horses are getting a run though, as usually it is moaning we do not see them enough.
Your best option with top class horses is to back them in top class races. Simple as that..
Crown
3:20 Sandown
6/1 Bet 365Standout of the year bet. Should be 2/1
maximum stakes 20 Points win
Film Set
4:20 Lingfield
2 Points Win @ 3/1 Corals2nd @ 4/1
-2 PointsRhinestone Ruby
8:10 Worcester
2 Points Win @ 11/8 LadbrokesWon @ 2/1
+2.75 PointsDan Ryan
4:10 Uttoxeter
4 Points Win @ 4/1 LadbrokesFell @ 11/2
– 4 PointsDaily P+L -3.25 Points
Overall P+L -26.30 PointsAfter thought… I have hit the post 3 times in the last 3 days with 3 second place finishes at decent prices. I don’t feel it is a decent enough price to back each way though. Lets hope one can last to the line soon, allowing me to turn my losses into profits. I am not too worried about the losses at the moment as my selections have been knocking on the door and not being tailed off. Lets hope for some luck!
7:20 Longchamp.
I think that Aidan O’Brien will definately win this race and you have to stick with Age Of Aquarius as Johnny Murtagh has stuck with this one. at 11/2 I’ll take a chance.
Age Of Aquarius
7:20 Longchamp
2 Points Win @ 11/2 Ladbrokes2nd @ 9/2 -2 Points
Dennis The Legend
3:45 Newton Abbot
3 Points Win
@ 7/1 Bet 3652nd @ 5/1 -3 Points
Overall P+L -21.05 Points
13 Bets 5 WinsBarizan 2:00 Stratford @ 1/2
Quell the storm 5:10 Stratford @ 6/4
Luminous Eyes 2:35 Curragh @ 11/2
Beauty O Geaun 3:40 Curragh @ 11/4
(All prices Ladbrokes)1 Point win lucky 15
Lost -15 Points
After thought. A terrible day where I shouldnt have had a bet. Woke up with a hangover and just flicked through the cards. a 1/2 favourite and a 6/4 favourite turned over, and an 11/4 pulled up. I need to start getting some restriction with my betting. I am not disciplined enough when I am approaching this. Time for some sleep.
Yesterday was a bad day for me. Failed my driving test by having one too many minors and I overated a horse to the extreme. I was contemplating giving this up but when the going gets tought. I get going. New day, new start.
RA JUNIOR
3:10 York
1 Point Each Way @ 40/1 HillsLost -2 Points
CITY OF THE KINGS
2:35 York
1 Point Win @ 10/1 BetfredWon +10 Points
CESARE
2:50 Ascot
2 Points Win @ 5/2 LadbrokesLost – 2 Points
BORDERLESCOTT
3:30 Chester
1 Point Win @ 7/4 HillsWon +1.75 Points
Daily P+L +7.75 Points
Overall P+L -3.05 Points
11 Bets 5 WinsIt is always the way, racing seems to go your way when you are on your last bets..
Congratualtions to the lad in question!
In my honest opinion. Forget what anyone one here says.
Dont get attached to jockeys
Dont get attached to horses
Dont get attached to trainers
You have what many of us dream of. A complete new start.
Dont follow horses. Look at things in a different view,
Watch races, if you see a horse that to you could be under performing or you think can do a lot better than there win suggest, note it down and if it fits what you think it needs next time out forget it
You need to look at horses as statistics. I don’t and i doubt anyone here 100% does, but its the only way to truely bet with your brain.
Ask anyone on here and I can guarantee they have backed a horse way too much than they should. I LOVE kauto star, he has won me thousands literally, but eventually he will decline but I will still back him. On a bad note.. I backed a horse called Henrythenavigator last year. Watch all his three year old runs if you have the chance and then watch the QEII… I had my biggest ever bet, risked sooooo much and he was beat, by a horse that finished behind him at least twice…
I backed him at 8/13..
Remember there is no such thing as a certainty.
Hope this helps. I wish I could start all over again!
I hope he makes a recovery enough to star in the film based on him.
Couldnt write this if you tried though.. will the film end in tradegy?
I do honestly hope the horse recovers film or not. Its a rags to riches fairytale which rarely happens. Lets hope its a fairytale ending and he ends up in a feild full of mares.
Get Well Soon TT x
I will miss her on channel 4 from time to time. She is so much more aesthetically pleasing than francome and mcgrath!
I reckon she will have a winner today!
My biggest tip so far. I really, really fancy KYLLACHY STAR.
Last time out he was never happy in running and was left when the others kicked for home, he then found trouble and it looked like the horse was never going to get there. But the further the race went the better he got. He went away with every stride at the end.
So stepping up to the mile is the obvious step forward and up him in class to get a bit of a price. Will go very close
Kyllachy Star 1:30 Newmarket 10 Points Win @ 11/2 Paddys (Gauranteed Price)
-10 Points
Total P+L -10.8 Points
Strike Rate 9 Bets 3 Wins (33.3%)
