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Enable is a best priced 5/4 now. Waldgeist is single figures now.
Sky Bet and Paddy Power go 16/1 for Capri on Oddschecker. Do these firms not have access to recent results or something? Is it Oddschecker quoting incorrect odds?
Capri was very disappointing on his comeback and other firms offer 40/1. Unless they are fitting him with a Turbo engine he is unlikely to better last year’s effort in the race. 16/1? Sweet Baby Jebus.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Roaring Lion is generally 6/4 here, with one or two little pockets of resistance.
Cracksman is too short now unless Roaring Lion defects. Even then we have to see what the older horse does in the Arc and then see what ground he encounters.
I did Roaring Lion at 3/1 as I felt there was just about enough wriggle room there as value. If he doesn’t run, I simply won’t have another selection.
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Jack, I have emailed ATR loads of times and they never reply, nor do they fix the errors. I’ve given up on them.
Even if they are just cutting and pasting articles they should be savvy enough to know that sire was incorrect.
Maybe I am expecting too much for people working in the industry to educate themselves about the important information.
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Kev, ATR ran that article but told us that the sire of Persian King was Frankel. Never mind they tried.
I am confident Persian King will improve past Anodor, if he hasn’t already done so. Persian King was favourite when they clashed but over the 7F trip the quicker actioned Anodor was able to pick up more sharply. Persian King is a bigger colt by far, with a slower cadence but a ground devouring stride. He has an easy going, elastic stride compared to the shorter striding Anodor, who relies on getting more strides in across the same time period.
A bigger factor is the Freddy Head is not as reliable in bringing his 2YO’s forward to 3YO and he is much less likely to go to Newmarket based on previous experience.
Sangarius, Ten Sovereigns, Madhmoon and Anodor are the poorest value in the list for me because of what they have achieved so far and/or their profile and likely optimum trips.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Waldgeist is an each-way shout for sure.
I don’t think he beat a great field there though. Capri looked as slow as the Titanic and Cloth Of Stars just hasn’t sparked this year. If you take his second place in the Arc away, he just doesn’t look a group 1 horse. Talismanic seems a bit in and out to me. He ran a stinker in Dubai early in the year and has never actually had back to back wins over 19 races.
10/1 Each-Way is a bet but I can’t really see him touching Enable if she gets there in one piece.
The other worry would be Waldgeist’s Saint Cloud win, where he scrambled home from Coronet. The Gosden horse was thumped and then beaten further by Sea Of Class, albeit that she may not run here. From nine runs since that GRand Prix win only Coronet has placed and the other eight were unplaced efforts.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Gosden’s 2000 Guineas record, 4/1 would not be appealing to me, particularly with other contenders queuing up.
Charlie Appleby is adamant Quorto is a Guineas horse if anything and if the colt does run again this season it will be in the Dewhurst.
King Of Comedy will be at a bit of a disadvantage if he does run in the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy. Even if there has been no injury setback, it wouldn’t have been the plan to come into Group 1 races with just one run in the bag. It could be a lot to ask a horse from the Too Darn Hot yard to take on his stablemate. i would have thought something a bit easier would be a better option.
Persian King looks criminally underrated to me on 102 RPR. He tracked Lone Peak and effortlessly pulled five lengths clear in the closing stages. The Racing Post assessor is tinkering with the horse’s ratings from his earlier races and he allotted Freddy Head’s Lone Peak ZERO improvement from his first run. Lone Peak kept on well enough to be clear second and it seems unlikely to me that he did not improve from his 7 length debut. I rate Persian King at least 110. The horse is a big, easy moving colt who can stretch. 25/1 is value in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Recoletos is 3/1 Fav for this race and that’s skinny enough for me. The horse didn’t run his race at Royal Ascot due to a sample being taken before the race and the horse has a needle phobia which upset him to an extent that he was effectively beaten before the stalls opened.
When he was 8/1 I believed he was better value than Without Parole at the same odds and now the Gosden horse is 14/1 to Recoletos’s 3/1. Stablemate Roaring Lion is generally 8/1 but Paddy Power have him 14/1, presumably because they think he will go Champion Stakes, yet much will depend on what happens with Cracksman in the Arc.
Lord Glitters is nibbled in a few places but in general punters are preferring Expert Eye but the Stoute horse has work to do with Recoletos on a pound worse terms this time.
I’ll just keep my fingers crossed for Lord Glitters and hope that Roaring Lion goes to the Champion Stakes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Danceteria was very weak in the betting today and he dwelt in the stalls.
With a furlong to go he was in coffin corner at back. Fran Berry must have thought he was on Nijinsky and as strongly as Danceteria stayed on in the last 200 yards, passing horse after horse to finish 5th, he never had a prayer from where he was going into the last furlong.
I thought it was a very eye catching effort but they won’t win the Cambridgeshire with him unless they can keep closer tabs on the field.
A poor effort from the jockey I thought, the horse had top weight and ran his heart out only for a poxy 5th. He should have been 2nd at least and there would have been no disgrace conceding 19 lbs to the winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Kansas look explosive indeed had to be worth 50pts at 14/1 with their new quarterback looking assured beyond his experience.
Kansas City 14/1
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This is MY thread for week to week bets. Nothing to do with an obsessed nutjob trying yet again to stir up trouble. Give it a rest sh*t stirrer.
This weeks soread picks are:-
Washington Redskins -6 pts
Kansas City +5.5 pts
Chicago -3.5
New England -1.5
Minnesota -2
Philadelphia -3
All teams Evens except for New England 10/11 and Kansas 19/20
1O pts accumulator.
Pittsburgh were awful last week. Six turnovers was the killer. Kansas are a potentially explosive offence. Big Ben is slightly injured coming in, so taking the points had to be done.
I feel Washington are a better team than the Colts and Alex Smith should help them play with less turnovers.
The Eagles should cope with a Tampa team highly unlikely to score anywhere near the points they did last week against a fairly hopeless Saints defence.
The Bears should put a declining Seahawks team away, they also have injury issues this week.
New England should do what they normally do and Aaron Rogers injured his knee in a big comeback win last week. The Viking will make life dufficult for him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saxon Warrior improved only 1 lb on offical ratings this season, from his Racing Post Trophy rating last season. He was the bookies pal after his Guineas win.
I had him at 20/1 and 16/1 in the Guineas but after the Derby run I never backed him again. They never got the chance to finally try him at a mile again, something that must have been worth trying surely?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Quorto picked up a bit better to win from Anthony Van Dyck today, prevailing by a length and a quarter.
Yet again the O’Brien horse looked outpaced mid race and he seems to be screaming for a mile. Surely he will get it now because other Guineas candidates look to have more pace and for me Anthony Van Dyck is just not a Guineas horse at all.
Out to 20/1 for this race now, the winner Quorto is generally 8/1 now and I took him at 14/1 some time ago.
There is a log jam of horses at the head of the market and I will later put my list of bad value ones in the market and try to recommend better options. There is stinking value in the list at the moment.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saxon Warrior has been retired due to injury. The same applies with Alpha Centauri who was reported as medically abnormal after her defeat behind Laurens.
The filly is a big loss but for me Saxon Warrior never looked like the horse who won the Guineas thereafter.
Disappointing that these two are gone in a season lacking real stars in the 3YO ranks other than Roaring Lion, who has thrived after an awful start to the season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That was a poor Champion Stakes.
Roaring Lion ran 5 lbs below his last race and both he and Saxon Warrior were boosted by the deteriorating Deauville at 40/1 odds getting his best rating since July 2017 on Racing Post Rating. Deauville was once rated 119 on official figures but he is only 109 these days.
The race time was very slow and Saxon Warrior remains a horse who is still only 1 lb better than he ran in the Racing Post Trophy more than ten months ago.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I just noticed that Too Darn Hot ran a pound lower on Racing Post Ratings (117) than he did on his previous start.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I rest my case with Persian King and my other comments. I say he lies between 110 and 115 now, based on my own thinking as outlined above,
Most people are here to put their own view and not to actually learn anything. That is fine, but don’t expect to become a better punter that way.
I am grateful to this forum and have learned from other posters here in my time posting realising that I could analyse races in a better, more thorough way. I leave here a better judge because of what I have picked up from other members.
My viewpoints are strong in the cases where I feel I have seen something that is at odds with the lazy media picks. I know that I have put more homework into the racing, than the lazy pundits paying lip service on TV and who then quote misinformation week-in, week out. Despite Too Darn Hot’s “Sizzling” win in the Champagne Stakes, he actually recorded an RPR 1 lb less than his previous start. It’s smoke and mirrors with BS built in. I try to cut through the bull plop to help better inform. I am only sorry it bothers people to read what I see as closer to the truth, and class it as arrogant rubbish.
C’est La Vie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
