[Shabbs6]

Ouch ..tht stung.. Beuachamp Viking just never got into it , And the winner was just way to good for those horses… that will teach me to not watch videos of previous races lol Right ok lesson learnt…

So New bank is :

Beauchamp Viking Lost at 9/2 = -1 pt.

Betting Bank
Running Total – 101.5pts

[Shabbs6]

Didn’t get around to posting yesterday due to drinking too much… Apologies lol

Race 2

Picked the 2:50 at Exeter today !

Going – Firm

Bushwacker and Beauchamp Viking both have good records on firmer ground where as Piment D’Estruval and Bertenbar are proven on softer ground. Goodtimetoby has never won a race, so difficult too see which ground is best for him. Im taking Goodtimetoby out of selections at this stage due to the competition.

Distance

The only horses to win at this distance are Piment D’Estruval and Bertenbar.

Im not too worried about the others not winnig at this trip as can see they have either placed or had the wrong going to really suit them when they have ran 18f.

Trainer Form

Beauchamp Vikings Trainer is having a blinding month with a 50% strike rate(Low number of horses ran tho) and both Bushwacker and
Piment D’Estruval have the same strike rate of 16%

Form

Bertenbar has had the best form lately with a 121. However, this has been in his favoured conditions, where as the conditions today could really cause some problems.

All of them that are running today have ran well but only in there favoured conditions apart from Bushwacker who is a slight worry.

Class

All of these horses are pretty much running at class 4 races, but Beauchamp Viking and Bushwacker have a bit more prize money to their names ….

So with all that in mind i would see my betting forecast in this order :
Beauchamp Viking Joint Fav with Bushwacker, Bertenbar, Piment D’Estruval and then Goodtimetoby.

Ok looking at the betting today, i have concerns with Bertenbar and Piment D’Estruval as the ground really doesnt suit there best form.

Now obivously, looking at the bookies today im going against there selections as both Bushwacker and Beauchamp Viking are both 9/2.

Ima go with my instinct anyway and will take Beauchamp Viking as my selction due to good trainer form, and the ground being in his favour today.Only real concern being that he has only ever won at Towcester. I think Bushwacker being top weight might struggle.

Betting Bank
Running Total – 102.5pts

Beauchamp Viking to win – Currently at 9/2 Ladbrokes
Stake – 1pt

[Shabbs6]

okjoe57 – Hey Buddy, Not sure about all Bookies but i use Ladbrokes and Betfair and they both have a seperate place market to bet in !

However, problem is the odds are extremely short so you need to make sure you have a high strike rate, as a couple of losses if ya not carefull can really dig deep in ya pockets !

[Shabbs6]

Well well well !

Theres a rather nice start to the Thread !

Like Ice, Looked comfortable right up to the last jump at which point gave me a bit of a fright but once on the run in, Global Flyer just faded, just not the right ground for him ! Not quite sure what happened to Earcomesthedream – Never got in the race right from the start. However, nice to see that Global Flyer as i predicted was in for the chase and should have gone of at shorted odds !

So New bank is :

Like Ice

won

at 5/2 = +

Betting Bank
Running Total – 102.5

pts

[Shabbs6]

Ok so here goes !!

First race is the 2:55 at Towcester.

I made the fatal mistake of getting the other half to pick the race to do so this is why we on this one. But hey, its a bit of fun and id like to think i could choose pretty much any race to do a half decent review on.

So… First off the going is Good-to-Firm.

Going

My only real concern for this race with the going is

Distance

The only horse to win at this distance is

Trainer Form

Worringly there is only one trainer currently in form(Had a winner in April) Which makes

Form

Class

So with all that in mind i would see my betting forecast in this order : Global Flyer and Like Ice Joint fav, followed by Nobby Kivambo, Earcomesthedream, Iona Days and then Billy Murphy.

Ok looking at the betting today, as i thought Billy Murphy is a non runner because of the going no doubt.

However Betfair have everyone priced up as follows:-

Like ice – 2.3 Earcomesthedream – 3.8 Iona Days 4.6 and then Global Flyer and Nobby Kivambo at 4.8.

Soo immediatley i see Global Flyer as really good Value for this race and in my eyes alot better chance than the Odds Suggest.

From described above i have the choice of 3 which are Like Ice, Earcomesthedream and Global Flyer.

Given that i think Global Flyer and Earcomesthedream have ran at a higher class of race, however need softer ground ima punt for

Betting Bank
Running Total – 100pts

Like Ice to win – Currently at 5/2 Stan James
Stake – 1pt

[Shabbs6]

Ginger,

Just looked back at my notebook (wrote everything down before posting on here) And your right lol

Have no idea where i got that from now looking at his form or how i even managed to write that on here.

I’ll put that down to misreading my notes…ill be a bit more carefull next time. Luckily didnt affect how i would of gone about things today.

As most throught Dick Turpin real easy winner, One to keep an eye on, Cityscape looking ok on firmer ground but even then he had no competition with Dream Eater, Highland Knight and surprisingly Music Show, who ran a very poor race in my view. I think now possibly looking over previous results that maybe the field size was just a bit too small for her ?

Maybe something to bear in mind when she runs again !

[Shabbs6]

Hey guys,

Thought i’d put in my 2 cents on this one aswell

Ok i go through everything i see as important and then star rank the horses based on each category this will give me an idea which horse has the best chance of winning and if could be good value to bet on.
Ok so to start with the first thing i’ve looked at today was distance.

Now all horses have ran the distance but something quite concerning for me was the fact

is the only one not to win at this distance.

,

and

have all won 14.2% of there races at this distance however,

has won 37.5% at 8f.

Going – My two concerns were

and

. In my opinion there best form has been on softer ground so i think the faster ground could be a worry for them. On this basis i would Remove

for any further consideration.

Form –

,

and

are all showing pretty decent, recent form. However,

Highland Knight

Looks like has been strugglign as of late and this is with company of a lot less ability than the other 3. So on this basis i will also remove

from selection.

Ok so just to recap we have 3 Horses Left.

Dick Turpin
Cityscape
Music Show

Trainer Form (Credit goes to Ginger for now looking at this.)
I’ve reviewed the trainers form for the whole of april to see how they are doing this month. I’ve done this absed on win strike rate.

Comes out on top for this one then

and then

Class – Basically i look at the amount of money won and divide it by the wins for the certain type of race.Ie all Chase wins or all Hurdle wins etc.

is showing as the best in this catergory with

a cloes second and then

Ok now personally heres how i see it between these 3.

i believe is not going to be able to cope with the faster ground with

and

who both like the ground and are proven can win at this distance and at a high class of race.

So we are left with 2 –

Dick Turpin

and

Music Show

Now i cant see that these two horses are all that far apart in ability, well certainly not as far apart as the odds would suggest with the bookies.
Creating a betting tissue at this point would probally really demonstrate the value better but as this is something i’ve still not looked into i can’t do it but based on what i have reveiwed i would see it in this order

Dick Turpin

–

Music Show

–

Cityscape

–

Dream Eater

–

Highland Knight

I would see it as

Dick Turpin

and

Music Show

Both being fairly similar in odds.

So based on value i would much rather punt for

*Music Show*

This is my first go at publically doing this so feel free to smash apart my analysis:)

Best of luck to all.

[Shabbs6]

Wow – Loads to take in !

Ginger what a write up lol (did read it all tho )

All i can say is there is a massive amount of info to take on board here. Some of the things you guys mention are things that i have already been doing, but there is loads of info there on things that i most definetly haven’t really taken into considertation.

Obivously with the Gold Cup at Sandown tomorrow this is probally a good time to get on with a practice of putting everything together and seeing how things come out ….( Really fancy Baby Run already tho, so will have to keep my heart away from me head for this review)

What im going to do now is go through the horses and as to why i would discount certain ones and so on. I’d really like it if you guys would like to comment on my reasons behind removing/keeping certain horses in the frame as itcertain statistics. Plus it might also show me that im looking at it in the right way, rather than just thinking i am.

Be back in a few hours with my predictions…. haha !

[Shabbs6]

Maxilon 5 , Thank you very much!

Your story today reminds me very much of my daily outcome haha

Funny you mention Epsom, because today was one of those days for me. I picked the winner for the last… and that was it lol

As much as i know form alone will never ever pick a horse that will win 100% of the time. It will show you some horses which get overlooked for one reason or another, or even if it just narrows the pack down to a few to choose from lol

Would be quite interesting to compare a race selection to you to see how different our opinions could be ?!

AP – Thank you very much for diggint out those links for me, i love the way the debate sparked up and the way people looked at the races. Give us all some hope for the form bashers.

One thing that really interested me was the way people priced up the horses to how they see them. Especially the whole Kauto Star and Beef and Salmon debate. Which obvisouly now with hindsight was a very good vision and well worked out. However, this is something i wouldn’t know the first thing about how to go about this. Is there anything forum post’s or anybody that could explain how to come to decision like this? Or is this values that you take from the form , create your own personal formula and come out with the odds that way ??

One thing i think i am going to look to do is maybe do a race a day from a racecard and go through it to explain my choices and the reasons why for the whole world to rip apart. Maybe putting it down and explaining my reasons might even help me in seeing mistakes/error in judgement once looking over the notes i have made and reasons behind picking/laying a horse…

[Shabbs6]

Agreed with Doug. Its actually something i was thinking about not long ago but the only thing that really made sense to me was the same answer Doug has Im sure there are other factors in it but the mark its running off does have a major impact on the running of a horse untill its back down to a winning mark…then the same thing happens again…and again lol

Regards,

Shabbs

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