Shabbs6 Race a Day !

[Shabbs6]

Hey Guys,

Ok after quite enjoying going through some form, writing a review on the race and picking a horse ( Mostly Losers lol), Thought id give a thread of my own a try and Work with a betting bank and see how i do.

I intend to Start with a bank of 100 Points and will bet to level stakes of 1 point.

Every Day (Hopefully) i will do a write up on which horse i think will win from a selected race. Now i prefer the jumps however, i will probally do the race with the most prizemoney on the day so will be a bit of flat in there aswell!

Also only looking to do win bets as will be looking to set up an E/W only bet thread aswell at some point to see how that goes for a giggle !

Ok So heres what i plan on doing hope i get a few followers and a few winners. Please all feel free to comment on any write up’s i do with why you would disagree with anything said, as long as its contructive its all helpfull !

Regards,

Shabbs

[Shabbs6]

Ok so here goes !!

First race is the 2:55 at Towcester.

I made the fatal mistake of getting the other half to pick the race to do so this is why we on this one. But hey, its a bit of fun and id like to think i could choose pretty much any race to do a half decent review on.

So… First off the going is Good-to-Firm.

Going

My only real concern for this race with the going is

Distance

The only horse to win at this distance is

Trainer Form

Worringly there is only one trainer currently in form(Had a winner in April) Which makes

Form

Class

So with all that in mind i would see my betting forecast in this order : Global Flyer and Like Ice Joint fav, followed by Nobby Kivambo, Earcomesthedream, Iona Days and then Billy Murphy.

Ok looking at the betting today, as i thought Billy Murphy is a non runner because of the going no doubt.

However Betfair have everyone priced up as follows:-

Like ice – 2.3 Earcomesthedream – 3.8 Iona Days 4.6 and then Global Flyer and Nobby Kivambo at 4.8.

Soo immediatley i see Global Flyer as really good Value for this race and in my eyes alot better chance than the Odds Suggest.

From described above i have the choice of 3 which are Like Ice, Earcomesthedream and Global Flyer.

Given that i think Global Flyer and Earcomesthedream have ran at a higher class of race, however need softer ground ima punt for

Betting Bank
Running Total – 100pts

Like Ice to win – Currently at 5/2 Stan James
Stake – 1pt

[Shabbs6]

Well well well !

Theres a rather nice start to the Thread !

Like Ice, Looked comfortable right up to the last jump at which point gave me a bit of a fright but once on the run in, Global Flyer just faded, just not the right ground for him ! Not quite sure what happened to Earcomesthedream – Never got in the race right from the start. However, nice to see that Global Flyer as i predicted was in for the chase and should have gone of at shorted odds !

So New bank is :

Like Ice

won

at 5/2 = +

Betting Bank
Running Total – 102.5

pts

[Librettist]

If you end this thread now you can retire as the only person in this section to have had a 100% strike rate

[Shabbs6]

Didn’t get around to posting yesterday due to drinking too much… Apologies lol

Race 2

Picked the 2:50 at Exeter today !

Going – Firm

Bushwacker and Beauchamp Viking both have good records on firmer ground where as Piment D’Estruval and Bertenbar are proven on softer ground. Goodtimetoby has never won a race, so difficult too see which ground is best for him. Im taking Goodtimetoby out of selections at this stage due to the competition.

Distance

The only horses to win at this distance are Piment D’Estruval and Bertenbar.

Im not too worried about the others not winnig at this trip as can see they have either placed or had the wrong going to really suit them when they have ran 18f.

Trainer Form

Beauchamp Vikings Trainer is having a blinding month with a 50% strike rate(Low number of horses ran tho) and both Bushwacker and
Piment D’Estruval have the same strike rate of 16%

Form

Bertenbar has had the best form lately with a 121. However, this has been in his favoured conditions, where as the conditions today could really cause some problems.

All of them that are running today have ran well but only in there favoured conditions apart from Bushwacker who is a slight worry.

Class

All of these horses are pretty much running at class 4 races, but Beauchamp Viking and Bushwacker have a bit more prize money to their names ….

So with all that in mind i would see my betting forecast in this order :
Beauchamp Viking Joint Fav with Bushwacker, Bertenbar, Piment D’Estruval and then Goodtimetoby.

Ok looking at the betting today, i have concerns with Bertenbar and Piment D’Estruval as the ground really doesnt suit there best form.

Now obivously, looking at the bookies today im going against there selections as both Bushwacker and Beauchamp Viking are both 9/2.

Ima go with my instinct anyway and will take Beauchamp Viking as my selction due to good trainer form, and the ground being in his favour today.Only real concern being that he has only ever won at Towcester. I think Bushwacker being top weight might struggle.

Betting Bank
Running Total – 102.5pts

Beauchamp Viking to win – Currently at 9/2 Ladbrokes
Stake – 1pt

[Shabbs6]

Ouch ..tht stung.. Beuachamp Viking just never got into it , And the winner was just way to good for those horses… that will teach me to not watch videos of previous races lol Right ok lesson learnt…

So New bank is :

Beauchamp Viking Lost at 9/2 = -1 pt.

Betting Bank
Running Total – 101.5pts

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