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Hi shabbs6your asking the holy grail of racing eh my friend, i wish i knew who held the carpenters cup too, i find personally it can be a real pain in the butt looking too deep into racing statistics to keep my happy love racing balance to doing my math exam under pressure again.
so i would say its personal choice in what way you capture your winning horse..i was originally form trained by simon holt, using his rules a 40% strike rate could be achieved sometimes. he would teach things that had borderlines and to keep within those borderlines like can the horse do the distance, likes the ground, and signs of it being at its fittest like does the trainer put him in a race on a regular basis or has he entered him early for some reason…i personally use only the markets, and this has been the basis of study for my personal tipping site and works well. however this has become very difficult especially when the bookmakers play around with the odds so much and flip the market upside down now and again…
i find i dont have to look so deeply into a horses statistics this way and find it much more enjoyable, i find many winners simply by seeing when a horse is improving and its form reads say 096 would be in the right direction..
all these things like jockey change, draw, etc etc etc are interesting to me and i do take notice much, like the system at the moment what im studying that shows me nearly every race meeting everyday doubles and trebles are landed, usually by the jockey and sometimes the jockey same trainer..it is and has always been my theory that the bookmaker knows most information about a plot horse or 2 maybe 3 horses trying to win the same race and i can guarantee you it is refected in the odds, its just knowing how to read them and im not sure most people in racing get it, which is a shame as your going to do a job without the nescessary tools..
interesting forum, i will try shed more light later when i have time.
scott.
Wow – Loads to take in !
Ginger what a write up lol (did read it all tho
)All i can say is there is a massive amount of info to take on board here. Some of the things you guys mention are things that i have already been doing, but there is loads of info there on things that i most definetly haven’t really taken into considertation.
Obivously with the Gold Cup at Sandown tomorrow this is probally a good time to get on with a practice of putting everything together and seeing how things come out ….( Really fancy Baby Run already tho, so will have to keep my heart away from me head for this review)
What im going to do now is go through the horses and as to why i would discount certain ones and so on. I’d really like it if you guys would like to comment on my reasons behind removing/keeping certain horses in the frame as itcertain statistics. Plus it might also show me that im looking at it in the right way, rather than just thinking i am.
Be back in a few hours with my predictions…. haha !
yes il have a quick analysis myself,
please note the winner comes from out of the first 3 in the betting forecast around 90% of the time and the 3rd 4th 5th named rp forecast around 70% of the time…as it did in the national..any market move will be shown 5 minutes before the off in the live opening show only…it annoys me when i have a feeling of intuition pulling against a mathematical selection only to find that the winner was a note to myself a week ago at the back of my mind hahaha..
all good fun.
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Can I just say, what a fantastic write up by Gingertipser!
Excellent fella.
To counter Ginger, I’ll pass on a more simplistic view of reading form. Back in my 9-5 days, I used to arrange coach trips to the races for my fellow workers, and the Cheltenham hunter chase evening was a popular outing.
One year a racing novice arrived on the coach with the racing page from the Guardian and asked what all the numbers and letters in front of the horse’s name meant.
We told him that P = prominent, F = first, U = unlucky and that the numbers told you how many horses they had beaten in that race, so that 1 = one from last, 2 = 2 from last etc. The horse he backed in the first led going to the last fence, where the jockey fell off. Will that go down as U for unlucky, he asked. No we said, that was very unlucky, so that will be recorded as FU.
Inevitably the gag backfired – in the last race he backed a horse with a succession of letters in it’s form and we all had to sit on the coach waiting for him to collect his winnings after it bolted up at 20/1!
Ignorance can be bliss ….
AP
Indeed AP,
Ignorance can be bliss. Anyone can be lucky for a day, week, month, or year; backing anything the pin lands on. But if a gambler / investor wants to make money over a long time period / many bets; he / she needs to get value. Unless that is, the punter has one big lucky win, a la Agnus Haddock, on the Scoop 6 / Jackpot. Winning enough in one go to pay for all the losers.
We’ve all taken a complete novive punter racing, and he /she wins a packet. Reminds me of what happened to me and my grandfather. I took my granfather racing at Newbury’s 1987 Hungerford Stakes day. He was usually a twice a year gambler, Derby and Grand National and only had one bet in the big race this day. Seeing a jockey almost walking his mount down to post, with head held over the rail.
Grandad "He hasn’t come here for nothing, put a fiver on that for me".
Me "Abuzz, he’s 33/1, got no chance".
Grandad "yes he has".
Me "At least back it each way".
Grandad "No, fiver on the nose".
Me "You sure"?
Grandad "Yep, fiver on the nose".
Me "O.K. If you insist".
I walk around the jungle and manage to find one bookie giving 50/1.
"And their off"! Grandad’s nag was out the back and going nowhere. I laugh
. Then entering the final furlong, he suddenly begins to make up ground in the last furlong, but seemingly all too late. There’s another one going better too, but searching for a passage. I knew it should have been each way. However, the leaders have gone off too quickly, falter, and Abuzz comes storming through to get up close home in a three way go.So because of the very strong pace and Shaikiya not being able to get through, Abuzz came out the winner. Yet the bet wasn’t made because my Grandgather knew the likely pace, or trends or padddock pick, or form. No; and little did we know, jockey Muis Roberts hadn’t been in Britain very long. He took most of his mounts steadily to post, with head over a rail.
Value Is EverythingShabbs,
I have on file a 40 page free e-book, ‘How to become a professional gambler’ by the authors of Racing System Builder, which I am certain would be advantageous to you in your quest. It is an advert for their product and somewhat dated but it is a worthwhile read and reference.
If you wish me to transfer a copy just PM me with an email address.
Hi shabbs6
)
. Then entering the final furlong, he suddenly begins to make up ground in the last furlong, but seemingly all too late. There’s another one going better too, but searching for a passage. I knew it should have been each way. However, the leaders have gone off too quickly, falter, and Abuzz comes storming through to get up close home in a three way go.
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