Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Muhannak (Sixties Icon)
Only Answer (California Flag)
Lewis Michael (Albertus Maximus)
Goldikova (Daytona)
Square Eddie (West Side Bernie)
Paddy The Pro (City Style)
Street Boss (Fabulous Strike)
Conduit (Winchester)
Champs Elysees (Colonel John)20.35 Ventura (Zaftig)
21.15 Heart Shaped (Saucey Evening)
21.55 Doremifasollatido (Pursuit of Glory)
22.35 Folk Opera (Halfway to Heaven)
23.15 Zenyatta (Cocoa Beach)I don’t see the Breeders’ Cup as an outstanding betting prospect, which was I suppose the initial point, but it’s a terrific international racing event which I look forward to every year.
Would make the pilgrimage if I could – BC day in New York in 2001 was something really special.
Even those without knowledge of international racing should get something out of this meeting – how can you appreciate what we have at home if you don’t experience what happens elsewhere?
Great photo of the track…
Shame that Tom Durkin won’t be doing the commentary for the Juvenile Fillies!
Good luck with her, Tuffers (and congratulations on such a sensible, polite and well-argued response – never mind owning horses, I think they need you at the BHA!).
Have to agree that Gosden quite often appears to be smarter than he actually is.
Incidentally, Sheikhy Mo has had a share in Raven’s Pass for long before the Stonerside deal – they got involved with him shortly after the Dewhurst. The switch to Princess Haya’s colours was just a formality which has happened after the bulk Stonerside sale.
I’m fairly sure that ‘Stonerside’ still have legs of various horses in training from the deal, but I don’t think the McNairs will actually be involved any more.
Incidentally, after some downtime, the Stonerside website seems to be functioning again, so you can check out the stock details on http://www.stonerside.com
Danehill Dancer is becoming more like his sire every year – he seems to be upgrading his mares with class without imposing a distance requirement on them.
He became well known as a sprinter sire at first – probably because of the lower grade speedy dams he was covering. As his reputation has grown, he has been covering more mares from ‘classic’ bloodlines, who generally have more 8-10f profiles, thus he has had more success over those distances.
He has shown also with some of his fillies, particularly Arapaho Miss and Anna Pavlova, that when mated with a strong middle distance female family he can produce quality middle distance animals.
So, as with Danehill himself, my advice for DD distance requirements is to focus more on the damline, rather than trying to impose an average sire distance figure on the progeny.
No, I don’t think he will – he is definitely not bred to stay two miles; that fact was never in question for me. My challenge is with the dosage assignment of sprinter breeding, which I think is totally out of line with the evidence.
I think, given the good classic distance horses Hussonet produced in Chile, and the stouter influences from WH’s dam side (Never On Friday had Group 1 placed form over 12f, she was more than just a miler; her two black-type produce have Group wins at 10 & a half and 12f) that he would be capable of top form over 10f. The sprinter prowess he has shown may indicate that 12f is too far for him to be at his best.
However, my area of ignorance is in the general pattern of the Melbourne Cup itself. It is unlike European racing in that many of the entrants are not specialist stayers, correct? Many are running over mile or 10f for most of their careers before trying the cup trip for the first time on the day. I presume the training methods are different, to allow this adaptability, so maybe it is more possible that WH can switch codes from sprinter to distance horse in Australia than in Europe. Vintage Crop was a true-bred stayer in a way that many of the domestic runners were not. That is why I wouldn’t risk a lay.
Interestingly, previous winners have come from much speedier dam lines. Efficient’s dam had black type over 6f and his half brother (by Montjeu!) has won a Gr.2 over a mile – nothing in his family had black type over further than 10f; Rogan Josh had bags of sprinters in his ped… and now I’ve run out of time.
Sorry for the ramble…
I think it’s all done on prizemoney won rather than actual races, but also I think there is a committee somewhere that has final say.
Good lord, is no-one in Australia capable of analysing a pedigree intelligently, logically and objectively?
I wouldn’t ever go that far.
I think the dosage system does have some value for American pedigrees which conform to the original design and expectations of dosage.
It can be an interesting reference point, and very definitely an interesting topic for discussion!
What it is not is foolproof, or adaptable. For pedigrees that have little chef-de-race input (basically non-US) it can be at best pointless and at worst very deceptive.
I think, well I hope, that dosage was never meant to be used as a stand-alone judgement on pedigrees. It should always be used with reference back to other evidence – evidence from other aspects of pedigree research, evidence from the track and evidence of our own eyes.
If Snooperclyde had argued that Weekend Hussler was a Melbourne Cup lay based on his track performances, his racing profile, his breeding and his dosage figure, I wouldn’t have an argument with that – it’s his opinion. However, he argues purely that it is lay bet because WH is ‘bred to sprint’ based on his dosage figure, and ignores hefty chunks of evidence to the contrary.
I hope Snooperclyde does feel free to ‘chime in’ with his further opinions about this, as it is an interesting topic, despite your discouragement.
"As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself"
Hussonet has been a fantastic sire, but like many of the worlds best sire’s he has not been classified a "chef de race" as yet.
And this is where the grey areas come in. It obviously takes plenty of time and an abundance of evidence until a sire is classified as a chef-de-race. But until that arbitary time when he is classified, then his evidence is utterly ignored by the system.
So yesterday, Hussonet has no individual inflluence himself – tomorrow, just because Dr Roman has decided – he becomes a dominant factor? Give me a break. Before Sadler’s Wells was classified (and it took an astonishingly long time to recognise his influence) many European pedigrees came out with very odd results.
I’m not suggesting that Hussonet will ever become a chef-de-race – the system doesn’t appear flexible enough to recognise any input from anything apart the most absolutely obvious sources. But it is undoubted that many of his progeny stay 12f, and as his half-brother was a Gr.1 winner over 12f, and his grandam is a half-sister to an Irish Leger winner, it seems very possible that he (rather than Mr Prospector) is having some say in this.
The idea of pedigree analysis is to examine all the evidence. Dosage, to me, seems to be mainly willful ignorance of much of the data available.
Yes, it is a guide. But when neither the sire nor the damsire are chef-de-race, then the dosage figure should be taken with a large pinch of salt, and the other evidence should be given preference.
That does highlight some of the problems of the dosage system. For Europeans, it has long been known as unreliable for non-American racing,
As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself, it does not take into account his own record as a sire – which has plenty of evidence to suggest his progeny can stay 12f, as well as being successful over mile trips.
It also completely ignores the tail female line (a pet gripe of mine!), which has produced middle distance horses (including a half brother to the dam). And I can’t check my facts right now, but doesn’t the second dam Never On Friday have Group form over 12f?
None of that sounds like sprinter breeding to me, whatever the dosage figure (which is after all just some assigned numbers averaged out) says.
Without looking too closely at his ped, I wouldn’t ever claim that he is bred to stay the Melbourne Cup trip, but then I guess quite a few past winners don’t have out-and-out staying profiles.
WEEKEND HUSTLER is bred to sprint
Since when were Helissio (damsire), and At Talaq (grand-damsire) sprinters?
I would add Hussonet to that list too – his record in Chile shows he is well capable of siring middle distance horses.
Quite a lot (as you get an idea from the names I posted) of the HITs and broodmares actually have a relatively European feel about them – Karen’s Caper won over here, Argentina is by Sadler’s Wells, Raven’s Pass you know about, many of the sires they have used are ones with success on both sides of the Atlantic (Storm Cat, Seeking The Gold, Gone West, Elusive Quality).
Stonerside may be an American stud, but it is not packed with typical speedy US dirt types.
I heard an interesting stat that Zamindar [sire of Zarkava] has only had five winner at 1m4f in the last ten years and indeed this distance has only been attempted 46 times by his progeny. In ten years!
Zamindar’s first crop was 1999, so he had his first runners in 2001. As 2yos, they would not have run over 12f, so his first chance for them would have been in 2002. Still not great stats, but it has to be 6 and a half years, not 10.
I also strongly suspect that those figures are GB/Ire only, so would not include horses like Corriolanus, who has won and been placed over 12f in UAE.
And, if this is the case, it would also not include the vast majority of his 2002 and 2003 crops, which were foaled in the U.S.A. It is also worth remembering that those two American crops would not have been bred from staying damlines – those that came over here to race would have been speedier US types. Zarkava, with her strongly staying damline, is not typical of those two crops.
So, another case of lies, damn lies and statistics…
