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It’s ten years since the Belmont was won by a horse that had even run in the Preakness. That was Afleet Alex in 2005, who was 3rd in the Derby, then won at Pimlico.
Since then the winners are about evenly split between those that ran in the Derby, but missed the Preakness, and those that ran in neither and arrived here from minor stakes races over shorter trips.
Overall it’s like trying to win over 10F at Kempton, then 9F+ at Wolverhampton before going on to a 12F race at Southwell, such are the differences in the surfaces at the three Triple Crown tracks.
Ah Afleet Alex, the Triple Crown winner the US should have got. Attention is naturally drawn to those who fail in leg 3 at Belmont but in my view Alex was the best Triple Crown contender for 20 years. Just about knocked down in the Preakness, picked himself up to win in style and streeted the field at Belmont. Unfortunately he ran in the biggest circus of a race Churchill Downs has ever seen in the Derby.
Barged at the start, baulked on the back straight and crammed down on the rail up the stretch with every bit of Kentucky dirt kicked in his face, he still managed a creditable placed effort…2005 was the weirdest, pace collapsing, last man standing heat seen for a long time. All it needed, to complete the scene, was 4 clowns in a car to pass the wire alongside Giacomo, firing streamers and whistling Dixie.Nice horse was Alex.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Running Rein wrote:</div>
The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial formStorm The Stars had close form with Golden Horn last season. The Gosden Horse has improved two stone since then though and I reckon he has at least a stone in hand of the Haggas colt now. The Racing Post have Golden Horn on 122 and Storm The Stars on 104. The Gosden horse is unbeaten and has run fewer times. I think it would be an error to think their form is “close” now.
That’s fair enough I agree on Golden Horn’s improvement but I am hoping on a couple of things;
The Gosden colt will significantly less effective over Epsom’s 12f and that STS will improve a bit for 12f on decent ground. Also, my position is based on the fact I have missed the previous market moves (having stuck with OMR this winter) and now find myself with no bet 3 weeks out.
So much is price driven and I can get 66/1 and a quarter the odds for STS and that allows me to take the chance …not that the Nottingham form is literal but that there is still untapped potential in the Haggas colt in optimum conditions. I went through all the videos for STS in last 48 hours and in 4 out of 5 of his races he displays strong attributes that make you think there may be a 120 horse in there. The odds allow me to play.Conversely. whilst GH has the form, sectionals and visual impression he is 2/1 now and has the kind of pedigree I have spent 30 years dismissing for Derby candidates. His closest 7 male sire/grand sire/GGS are
Cape Cross
Green Desert
Dubia Destination
Ahanoora
Kingmambo
Nureyev
DanzigPlenty of quality blood there but none of it beyond 8 furlongs. There is no Derby winner in the last 20 years with so little stamina in the male lines. Sea The Stars was the closest (via Cape Cross) but he brought Urban Sea and she brought Allegretta and then all that stout German blood close up. There is nothing like that with Golden Horn. No stamina on the female side to talk of and brilliant sprinter/milers from the stallions.
Arguably he has already outrun his pedigree in winning the Dante but that was on the speed favouring York track last week. Epsom is a different test (it’s that first uphill 4 furlongs) and at 2/1 he must be opposed.
Storm The Stars is a price play with the link back to GH in form terms problematic, I accept. But STS has far fewer stamina doubts and Jack Hobbs is a solid citizen at the price on form and pedigree.The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial formKissed By Angels 7/1?
I can only assume she is a not an intended runner because if she was confirmed she should be 7/4I know this is a bit out of left field and has no precedent in their previous behaviour but is it possible that Coolmore might considering supplementing one of their top fillies for Derby?
With the paucity of competitive colts (Kilimanjaro, Hans Holbein & Sir Isaac Newton look the best remaining) and a surplus of top staying fillies in Diamondsandrubies, Found, Kissed By Angels, Together Forever & Legatissimo might it be worth rolling the dice in what may be a weaker than usual Derby field, especially if Golden Horn goes to France?They would have it to do on figures obviously but a really top filly (Ouija Board, Salasabil etc.) is only really behind the colts, on ratings, in June due to lack of opportunity to notch a bigger figure.
If this (crazy) notion was adopted, Coolmore would want to send the best filly I guess. Personally I love Kissed By Angels and I think her pedigree is hugely interesting but I suppose Legatissimo would be the obvious one and the least risky with a major classic already in the bag and not much to lose on reputation.Godolphin’s Cape Verdi is the last female I can remember taking her chance in the Derby and she ran ok in about 8th I think, about 15 years ago and started very prominently in the betting, in a poor year (High Rise).
Just an idle thought.Back to the drawing board for me with the Derby as Ol’ Man River shows he hasn’t got the stuff.
Think I will give the race a break for while, refresh, wait till the 5 day decs and then do some thinking.
Will require lots of thinking I feel.<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
I’ve decided – Lord Ben Stack wins IMO. Burke won the race a couple of years back & his seasonal debut was a very good race. Have backed at 90 and Dante-Derby double at 500/1.That’s an ambitious call to say the least. Good luck with that one.
No sign of support for Ol’ Man River, I have seen a few who think he’ll bounce back here but he’s available at 11/1 and that doesn’t look like there’s much confidence. There seems a lack of support for John F Kennedy as well today and he’s out to 9/2 in several places, despite assertions yesterday that the money was coming for him.
I think the non-runner (Medrano) has resulted ironically in a general drifting for all the runners, as it takes away the 3rd place for each-way betting and removes the temptation for punters to smash into any of the first 5 in the betting each-way, as only 2 places now.
Golden Horn is the only mitigation, probably because he is Pricewise….though may be general support.I am doing the Ballydoyle reverse forecast – currently pays over 40/1 as I just don’t like Elm Park based on pedigree, head carriage and that awful gallop at Newbury (ugly).
Golden Horn’s form is not so strong for me and this would be the absolute furthest he would want to go I think.
Jack Hobbs might well be good enough but is little value so I will take a chance that Aidan can get one or both of his winter favourites back on song. The price, particularly for Ol Man River is attractive. He could possibly get them both back and that’s why I will try a forecast at a big price.On a weekend packed with classic trials nothing impressed me more than Kissed by Angels.
She travelled beautifully at Leopardstown and Heffernan held on as long as he could against inferior rivals.
She looks exactly the type of filly to step up on form and do the Irish 1,000 Guineas/ Oaks double in the mould of Imagine.She is by Galileo as a stamina influence and although her dam was Lillie Langtry, that filly has Darshaan close up in the pedigree and arguably her stamina was never tested as she should have been a 10f horse without any bother.
In any case, Kissed by Angels just oozes class and I will be following her wherever she runs next…hopefully she takes in the Epsom Oaks.One crumb of comfort, if I may, for Ol’ Man River backers…I am one myself so that might taint the thoughts below, you can judge for yourself.
The Ballydoyle operation as well as having as good a trainer as there is in Europe and also literally dozens of experienced horsemen in its employ who would grace any equine establishment is also fundamentally these days an organisation with a strong leaning to numbers and performance driven criteria.
Sectional timings on the gallops, lung capacity, stride length, blood counts, circulation volumes, recovery times etc.
It is absolutely impossible to believe that given Ol’ Man River, a stoutly bred son of Montjeu who was debuted as a two year old over a mile, was allowed to run in the 2,000 Guineas, started 3rd favourite and started at 6/1 that they were not really, really pleased with him at home.
Now many horses can have inexplicably bad days and we don’t know what the explanation was for OMR at Newmarket, maybe he was not mentally ready for such a big race at that speed…his breeding would not have helped him there but there does not seem to have been a physical problem and he was eased which made it look bad but probably helped his long term hopes.It was certainly not in any way good for his Derby prospects and I instinctively thought if he was to have any chance at Epsom he would need to run again before the Derby in another trial and the only two I thought as at all possible were the Dante or the Gallinule, which is run over 10f on Irish Guineas weekend. The Dante I thought would be a more positive sign as it would be better contested and it would indicate that had not lost significant confidence in the horse. He is still in the Dante but not certain to run and the signs are hard to read. If he doesn’t run at York his Epsom chance has probably gone.
There are a few examples of heavily gambled (to the point of head-scratching prices) Ballydoyle horses flopping but the weight of money in defeat indicating that the underlying talent was there in abundance.
Most recently Declaration of War started a bizarrely short price for the Lockinge (5/4) in defiance of known form and was soundly beaten. He promptly turned the Queen Anne into a procession, won the Juddmonte and went down in a three way photo for the Breeders Cup Classic. The money left behind a Newbury did indicate the horse was a bit special.
Similarly St Nicholas Abbey was another Montjeu that started Evens favourite for the Guineas before finishing only 6th behind Makfi, then establishing a multiple G1 winning cv. Admittedly there was a long break after Newmarket but this was following a physical problem being identified.
So Ol’ Man River is definitely up against it but I think there is some hope that the decision to run at Newmarket and the strong market support indicate he remains a very talented 3yo.Prosser is putting 5mm of water on today, according to Turftrax.
He won’t let it lie…will he?Interestingly there is a fairly brisk SE wind forecast for Saturday and that is a headwind on the Rowley mile.
So the speedier, front running types may have something additional to overcome.I have been on Gleneagles since last October and am as confident as I can be given he hasn’t debuted yet this season.
I am all over Ol’ Man River for the Derby and am really in two minds about his sudden elevation in the market, I guess I should cover and I don’t think anyone is a bigger fan of Aidan O’Brien than myself but if he wins a second Guineas with a Montjeu he is probably some kind of deity.By the way I would certainly not consider Estidhkaar as ‘pure bred miler’…looks like a sprinter on the page but might just get a mile. Not the Rowley mile though and not into a headwind.
It was an impressive effort by Jack Hobbs and he looked a horse of real promise. One thing I think should be nailed immediately though is that he categorically did not win by 12 lengths.
It looked a fair bit less than that when watching live and I took a screenshot and reckon he won by a tad over 8 lengths, give or take a neck.
The thing is they no longer measured distances by actual distance (I know), they now use time and the length per second metric is derived via the official going description. I don’t think anyone now thinks the official going at Sandown was accurate today but the Jack Hobbs winning distance is evidence for how much out it actually was.
There are only two possible scenarios today…the ground was actually Good to Soft, possibly soft (official going Good, good to firm in places) or they finished absolutely legless.
I favour the former.I think another factor in the sudden interested in Territories (needs to be supplemented, I believe) is the weather forecast for the next 10 days. Territories has some very fair form which would make him competitive but his most visually compelling efforts (rated lower) have been on softer ground at Chantilly last summer and this year in the Prix de Fontainebleau.
The forecast for Newmarket shows rain every day from this Saturday 25th of April up to and including Guineas Saturday on the 2nd of May.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641616If this scenario proves accurate and Newmarket gets rain on 8 straight days, then Territories chance would probably be enhanced whilst at the same time the hopes of Gleneagles, from that Giant’s Causeway line with Mariahs Storm, would appear to be diminished. Gleneagles has a classic daisy-cutting action to back up the evidence of his pedigree.
There is a sideways-on shot about 1.5f out in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere which shows this very well.
He will be half the horse if its sticky at all and might point to why Ballydoyle have not yet ruled out Ol’ Man River.
I, for one, am praying for much less rain than expected in the next 10 days.Yes, a nice performance from Christophermarlowe and maybe I have underestimated the regard in which he is held by connections. Certainly a solid effort today though I still struggle to see him beating Ol’ Man River.
I guess that initially CM just didn’t strike me as a classic contender in the eye in the way that some colts do…
“who ever loved that loved not at first sight?”, as someone once said.Epsom is a unique and wonderful track but it is not one that trainers want to run their very best three year olds on more than once. One is easily enough visits to the Surrey switchback and the first Saturday in June is the day. In my view a colt that was regarded as a top prospect or strong Derby hope would be aimed at another trial and would not be risked at Epsom in tomorrow’s trial.
The risk of an injury (especially on good or faster ground like tomorrow) or loss of confidence/balance on the camber (worse at this meeting than Derby due to rail being out) is much greater than the ‘experience’ gained in my view.
Therefore, if a colt runs in the trial tomorrow, I would automatically rule him out for the big day, as in my opinion his connections don’t think enough of him to safeguard him for the big one.
However, tomorrow’s race is, I believe, a bit better endowed than previous years and is a good heat in its own right.
Future Empire looks the one.A couple of things.
Today is a forfeit stage for the Guineas and exchange markets are suspended…anyone know when the entries are released?
I thought it would be earlier today but apparently not.On the likely ground, the weather forecast I have access to shows dry, warm weather until Saturday of this week and then rain every day from Sunday 26th till Thursday 30th. Could yet be softer than current ground across the country (but hopefully not).
