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It’s the first day of the Donny St Leger meeting today, and there is jumping at Uttoxeter, but of the three meetings today it’s Carlisle that interests me most, perhaps one or two are flying under the radar there. I came very close to suggesting small bets on Istan Star and Lady Del Sol as well, if either were available at 20+ on the exchanges, they may be worth a very small nibble! But we’ve already got four selections at Carlisle to be going on with.
CARLISLE
2:10 – No More Games – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Boyles/SJ, 16’s various)
NO MORE GAMES was a bit of an eyecatcher on his racecourse debut at Beverley, although the fact he started in a claimer for this yard, does rather indicate he’s not too highly thought of.
He was slowly away and struggling to go the gallop, and by halfway it looked as though he would finish well beaten. However he stayed on nicely in the closing stages and was only beaten three lengths in the end. Looking at what the others have achieved since, you could argue he ran to a mark of around 65 there, and given he is racing off 56 here, he could be well in.
His second start, back at Beverley on soft ground was disappointing, as he failed to build on his initial run, although it was in maiden company, and a stronger heat. He probably wasn’t in the best position that day, and I’m fairly certain it wasn’t the ground that beat him, so will forgive him that.
He then ran at Thirsk a few days later, and found it all happening too quickly over 5f there, the race possibly coming to soon as well, a classic case of an unsuitable third run for a handicap mark.
I think he’ll appreciate this step up to 6f and he has Julie Burke in the saddle for the first time, he appeals as the sort that will run for her (she seemingly has a magic touch with some sprinters) and although this is a wide open event, he makes a fair bit of appeal.
4:30 – Indian Giver – 2pt each way at 12/1 (various, 11’s/10’s acceptable)
I really liked INDIAN GIVER as a two year old last season, she was very consistent after her initial efforts, and showed a really good attitude, the yard wouldn’t have had many two year old winners, so it’s too her credit she managed to score as a juvenile.
Her victory came on really testing ground at Newcastle, and she’ll have no trouble with conditions today. As most of you will know by now, one of my favourite angles is backing a horse I think is overpriced because of a poor last run, when I’m fairly confident I know why they ran badly, and she fits into that category.
She wasn’t seen until last month, when making a satisfactory comeback on heavy ground. She was beaten nearly twelve lengths that day, but still finished third of eight, and I’m sure she was in need of the outing. For some reason they ran her again, here over C&D five days later, and she ran very flat, as I would have expected.
She’s had three weeks to recover, and should now be spot on for this. She ran well at this venue on a few occasions last year, looks on a winnable mark, and has the services of a certain Paul Hanagan in the saddle, she’s a cracking bet at double figure odds.
5:00 – Funky Munky – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Various, 18’s acceptable)
Low grade stuff but FUNKY MUNKY makes a bit of appeal off his basement mark for a trainer who I greatly respect.
This horse was formerly with Alan Swinbank, and I think he has a lot of his fully tuned up for their initial starts, and most don’t improve over time. That looks the case with this one, so It’s probably more a case of the change of yard freshening him up, rather than getting a heap of improvement out of him.
He has run a few promising races over hurdles for Alistair this year, without setting the world alight, one thing he has shown though is that he will stay this trip and further on the flat.
Although his win came of good ground, his best run in the last year was on heavy ground at Ayr when runner up over this trip, and given that a lot in this field are unproven on soft, that counts for a lot. I’m sure he needed his run here last month, over a mile on good ground, and I’m expecting a much better showing this time around.
Smart Violetta is the obvious one, but she’s plenty short enough and helps to mark the market.
5:30 – Luv U Noo – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various, 12’s acceptable)
I don’t really need to introduce you to LUV U NOO, whom I’ve put up twice in the last couple of months, most recently at Chepstow last time, where she was slowly away and never got seriously involved in the race.
I’ve regretted abandoning a few horses this year, Circuitous and Hot Rod Mamma being recent examples (I put the latter up on her two runs prior to her five run winning streak) and I think I need to give this mare another chance to prove she is better than last time.
Despite being slowly away I would still have expected better, but one positive is that she didn’t have a hard race there, and this intermediate trip over 1m1f (and a bit) could prove spot on for her.
She stayed a mile well last season, and Dale Swift seemed to get on well enough with her. She’ll handle the ground, and I’m still convinced she has a race in her off this mark.
UTTOXETER
4:05 – Carndonagh – 0.75pt each way at 33/1 (various, 28’s acceptable)
This is a speculative one, but CARNDONAGH looks a little interesting here, and is one of three Sowersby runners in this.
He’s not been with the yard long, having been picked up cheaply at the May sales, but I thought his first run at Market Rasen for them, was promising, even though he was beaten nearly thirty lengths in the end.
That race was full of in-form horses and he ran very much as though he would come on a lot for it. I’ve gone back and watched his novice hurdle runs for Malcolm Jefferson, and to me he shapes like a stayer, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t turn out to be a three miler. He had a couple of bits of fair form last season, most notably when not beaten far behind Lake Legend and Pure Faith.
He’s finished in front of horses that are now rated around where he is currently, and although he might need a little more help from the handicapper, I think he has the ability to win off 103.
DONCASTER
5:20 – Drift and Dream – 1.5pt each way at 11/1 (B365, SJ, 10’s various)
DRIFT AND DREAM clearly needed her reappearance the other day at Sandown, but she showed her usual zip in the early part of the race, and I’m expecting an improved showing this afternoon, on faster ground, which probably suits her better.
She is typical of the sort Chris Wall does well with and Ted Durcan, who struck up a good relationship with her last season, is back aboard.
She wasn’t beaten far behind Kanaf at Sandown last season off 82, and I’m sure she still has improvement in her, so a mark of 80 certainly isn’t beyond her.
Having never raced in a field of larger than twelve, I’ll be interested to see how she gets on here, but she gave the impression last season that she rather enjoyed weaving in between horses (was brave in coming up the rail at Sandown on one occasion) and therefore I have no concerns on that front.
This is obviously competitive, but we know where we are with most of them, and I think this filly has a touch of class about her, which could ultimately see her placed in listed company, if that’s the case she should be going close in this.
Hi Yorkie
Thanks for those kind words, i’ll keep an eye on your thread.
I’ve managed to sell the majority of Chilworth Lass now, after Sheena and ATR did such a good job on selling her with regard to her record with ex Channon horses, at Fontwell on Sunday.
I’ll drop you a message on here, but if you contact me via e-mail in the interim, let me know it’s you!
Well they all ran deplorably yesterday for one reason or another, a day to forget.
I’ve been waiting to see what the weather might be doing to the ground today, as Lingfield’s turf course in particular looks likely to receive a fair bit more rain before the off, hence slightly shorter write ups.
LINGFIELD
3:10 – Camache Queen – 2pt win at 8/1 (SJ, good luck! 15/2 B365, Hills, 7’s various)
One of the more interesting races of the day and there are reasons to think Dennis Coakley’s filly CAMACHE QUEEN can get off the mark for the season.
Most of her rivals have been busy this year, but she comes here relatively fresh having had just the four starts so far.
She went close on her reappearance at Windsor over 6f, and fared well enough at Newbury on ground that was probably a little lively for her. A better effort followed at Carlisle, where she just didn’t quite finish her race off, and last time she pulled too hard off a slow early gallop.
She ran well at this venue on the turf last season, and I think the 7f straight course here, on ground that will probably have a little cut in it (good ground is fine too) are her ideal conditions. We know from her Windsor run she can win off this mark, and she is the sort Eddie Ahern gets on well with. She won in this month last year, and with fillies in particular, it often pays to take note of that, as some do thrive at certain times of the season.
Oil Strike frustrates me and probably many others, he is a talented little horse, but nearly always has some excuse or other. Were this over 6f I probably would have gone with him, and although he probably just sees out this trip, and he does act with cut, the combination could leave him vulnerable to a finisher close home.
5:10 – Carlton Scroop – 2pt win at 9/1 (SJ, again good luck, 8’s various)
CARLTON SCROOP is what he is, they’re no secrets with him, but he does know how to win, and it’s really his stamina that could win him this race, providing connections make the most of it.
I don’t doubt for a moment that Safari Team has the most ability out of this lot, but whether he really stays this far is open to debate, and I’m not convinced. In fact I think all four of the bottom horses have their stamina to prove. Agilete is in the “bounce” factor zone, which puts me off him and Sunset Boulevard isn’t good enough. Dream of Fortune will run his race and I’m sure will be thereabouts, but he’s not won for a while now and seems more content to let someone else take the glory these days.
I want to see Carlton Scroop set off in front here, and really wind things up from halfway, he stays much further than this, and will be in with a real shout if he’s ridden positively, any other tactics will not play to his strengths, but to those of his rivals. If I knew for certain he would be ridden from the front I would have a larger bet, but alas I don’t!
SEDGEFIELD
4:50 – Floreana – 3pt win at 4/1 (various) Kayaka – 0.75pt each way at 18/1 (various, 16’s acceptable)
A quite shocking marathon handicap chase, lovely stuff! I’m taking on Red Dynamite, I don’t see him as a stout stayer over 2m6f and I’ve major doubts as to whether he’ll see this out, granted he won’t have to see it out properly given the opposition, but even so!
Shuttle Diplomacy is interesting, but i’ve been thinking that for a while, and it’s really more her yard, and their record with such horses in recent times, on the face of it, she won’t be winning, and again has stamina to prove. The old boy Toulouse Express is still capable of winning a race like this, but backing him at single figure odds in any race is something I’m loathed to do.
Floreana is an honest mare, more often seen in Hunter Chases and Point to Points until recently. She has her fair share of weight here, and in most over races you’d certainly find something better handicapped, but in the grand scheme of things, she looks the one to side with in this. She came to grief last time, but she is a sound jumper in the main, she isn’t a real slowcoach but does will stay this far, and out of everything in this line-up, she looks nailed on to run her race.
Kayaka has shown the odd glimmer in novice hurdles, including at this track, and she looks a thorough stayer. If she jumps well on this chase debut, I can see her plugging on when one or two of these have given it up, and off her feather weight, she could cause a bit of an upset.
I just love big field, low grade, 7f handicaps with cut in the grade, I just hope I like them as much after today (if not more)
NEWCASTLE
3:20 – Cut The Cackle – 1pt each way at 28/1 (Boylesports, 25’s various), have an extra 0.5pt each way if she is 33/1 with anyone at any point (I’ll send an e-mail if she reaches that, and I spot it!)
CUT THE CACKLE is a mare I’ve often wanted to back, and indeed I think she did me a good turn years ago when trained by Peter Winkworth, but in the last 12 months or so, she’s not really been running in the right races, for all that she does appear to have lost her form.
With respect to Paddy Butler, he had a nightmare with her for the majority of last season, running her over 5f and even one go at 10f, after she’d won over 7f at Kempton for Peter Winkworth in the summer.
She did eventually return to that C&D but by then she’d had a long season and I’m willing to forgive some very flat runs late last year. Before that she’d shown enough at Brighton and Windsor, often the wrong trips, to suggest she retains ability, and now with Richard Guest I’d expect her to do better.
She won last year off 70, and had won off 82 in the past, now she is down to 58, and she is dangerous off that mark. At first glance she didn’t shape well on her debut for the yard last time, a few weeks ago at Wolverhampton, but she was ridden from the front that day, and this mare likes to pass horses. It was her first run for a while, so I suspect she’ll come on a lot for that, and I’ll be surprised if she isn’t ridden with more restraint this time (I hope so anyway).
I doubt she’d want heavy ground, but some cut is absolutely fine, and when on song she travels very well, and on this ground, she could well gain confidence from seeing others floundering by halfway. A lot of people seem to think the Guest yard is a big gambling stable and they only win when they are backed, I know first hand that whilst they do like a punt on occasions, many of their horses win when seemingly unfancied, and I wouldn’t let big prices about this one put you off.
3:50 – Honest Buck – 2pt each way at 25/1 (various, 22’s/20’s acceptable)
Now here we have one I’ve been keeping an eye on for a while, HONEST BUCK, I think he’s in the right race today, so here’s hoping he proves me right.
This horse showed some ability in all three of his maidens, the first at the end of last season, and two at the beginning of this. I thought he’d definitely win a little handicap off a mark in the mid 50’s, but to my mind he’s not really had a chance as yet.
He was running on very nicely in the closing stages over 6f on fast ground at Redcar on his first try in a handicap. Next time at Ayr he was slowly away and never in the hunt at all, and he didn’t appear to handle the turn and the undulations very well, again on quick ground. Last time he ran at Southwell and as everyone should do, one bad run there is always best ignored.
All his maiden form was on good, or good to soft ground, and the progeny of Chineur are twice as successful on soft ground as they are on good to firm, and looking at his action, I’ve no doubt he’ll go well on it too. I think he stays a mile at this stage, and although he seems to go well enough being ridden with restraint, I wouldn’t mind if they made more use of him here either, so I he’s adaptable in terms of tactics.
It’s competitive enough for the grade, but at 25/1 I think he stands out as being massively overpriced, he’s clearly risky, but I think he’s double what he should be, and offers good value.
NEWTON ABBOT
5:00 – Orion Express – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various)
This is competitive with many regulars over this course and distance battling it out once again. The mare Tiger Line is very frustrating, and whether she’ll quite see it out over 3m3f, I have my doubts, Tigger is another with stamina to prove over this trip, and again I just think he could be found wanting close home.
For no other reason than the price, I think you’ve got to side with ORION EXPRESS. I did a tissue for this race last night, and had him down at 8/1, you can get 14/1 currently, and that looks a bit too big about a horse that has twice won over this C&D, and whom showed a bit last time over shorter here.
He often runs well at this time of year, and has a decent win strike rate over hurdles, for one of his ability. I think it’s interesting, that aged ten and the veteran of over 50 hurdle starts, is being tried in a tongue tie for the first time, if that helps him in anyway, he’s on a fair enough mark, and as I said, whilst I couldn’t be at all confident in a race like this, he is the one that looks overpriced.
Now i’m back up and running properly after an August break, I’ve decided there is no harm in posting my blog picks here, so i’ll do that daily at about 11:30 for anyone thats interested.
I’ve still got a few shares left in a filly called Chilworth Lass, in training with Sheena West having been with Mick Channon. Time and again Sheena has demonstrated what she can do with modest ex Channon horses, and hopefully this filly will be no exception. Hi Note at Fontwell yesterday being yet another example. I do it all at cost, so i’m not making any money from it, and it’s a low cost way of having some fun in a horse. We’ve done alright with Shilpa who cost a grand, and this one wasn’t much more, if she wins as well i’ll be delighted. Details here
http://becherbrook.blogspot.com/2011/09/chilworth-lass-shares-available.html
I do just wish people would stop referring to low grade horses (which is the majority) as dross and donkeys and the like.
It’s just as well there are enough true racing fans still around at the pointing tracks and Plumptons of this world.
Someone asked who wants to go and watch the "dross" well thats not how i’d describe a 0-90 handicap hurdle, but I think you’ll find they’re more true racing fans at Plumpton on a cold monday afternoon than their are during the whole Royal Ascot meeting!
Sorry I know thats not what this thread is really about. As for Ffos Las, I found it to be a friendly little track on a visit earlier this year. I was a little disappointed with the facilities for such a new track, it did rather look like it had been rushed and not properly finished. It would be a shame if it were to go, although given the start up costs, you would rather think they would have come to some sort of legal agreement for at least the first 5 years with regards to fixtures.
I’m sorry but what a very silly thread. Completely flawed reasoning, but I do find it amusing that you chose Bath and not Newcastle!
Yeats
Pat Eddery may well have said that, but i’m not sure how seriously you can take it, when he’s proceeded to have runners there as a trainer! In fact he’s got a 33% strike rate there in the last 5 seasons, so I would imagine he’s rather warmed to the place!
They’re a few i’ve visited that i’m not so keen on, but in my opinion what sets British racing apart is it’s variety, i’d hate to see any of them closed, and I can’t believe someone suggested Plumpton!
I went to Ffos Las for the first time a few weeks back. My visit was made more enjoyable because our horse won. However whilst the staff were very friendly, and the viewing is good, it was basically what I expected of a new build. Oval track, no undulations, as it looks on screen, a mini Newbury.
We just wouldn’t build the likes of Fakenham, Cartmel and Fontwell anymore, and it would be a sad day if all the tracks were formulaic, as per the USA.
Very sad when we lose any horse, three in a day at one venue is very unfortunate. I had a soft spot for old Troodos Jet, he really was a lovely looking horse, didn’t have the ability to go with it, but he won his races, and always tried hard, poor old boy, RIP (and the other two).
Haha, very good Nathan, although you’ve unearthed my plan for next year!
Soap, I should probably still post on this thread as i’ve had a pretty average last few weeks, but i’m still posting every day on my blog http://www.becherbrook.blogspot.com at 11.30am each day.
Total P/L + 220.15
DONCASTER
4:10
This is the sort of race I like, as it’s quite easy to see how the race will pan out, at least for the first half of the race! Red Kestrel only has one way or running, and thats from the front. He landed a seller on this penultimate start and improved on that with finishing second at Beverley last time.
My selection PATAVIUM actually made most of the running when he won over C&D last season, but he’s a most adaptable type, and he’ll be equally at home, tucked in just behind the pacesetter. He should be one of the fittest in the line-up, as he’s been hurdling in recent months, and finished a fair third at Thirsk on his return to the level the other day. This track should play more to his strengths, and he looks the most solid option off what is still a fair mark in this.
It was by process of elimination that I landed on Patavium, as apart from Red Kestrel who could be hard to peg back if allowed to get too far clear, I have doubts about virtually everything else in the field. Incendo is very in and out and looks harshly treaated, whilst Bedouin Bay needs to improve on his run here last time, and has to prove his effectiveness on this faster surface. Fourth Generation won a weak maiden and looks on too high a mark, unless he has improved from three to four. Bullet Man will have his stamina severely tested at this trip, and Archie Rice often flatters to deceive and is plenty short enough for one that struggles to win.
4:10 – Patavium – 2pt win at 6/1 (various, bog)
FONTWELL
6:05
Lord Liath is understandably a warm order for this, and is by far the most likely winner. But i’m not convinced he is one to take such a short price about, with the ground livelier than anything he has encountered so far. He has been hitting a flat spot in his races before running on again, he just doesn’t strike me as a horse that will do anything that easily. His form over hurdles is obviously far superior to his rivals, but although he’s been getting beaten by some decent horses, he’s not actually beaten too many rivals of note, and I just have a niggling doubt over him.
LOMBOK hasn’t really been sighted in his three previous hurdling attempts, and there is a worry that connections are thinking about handicaps and won’t want to finish to close to Lord Liath. I’ll go with the assumption that he’s completely trying his best here, and he should certainly find this test more suitable than the ones he’s been set so far. Two miles was always going to be on the sharp side for this stayer on the flat, and the step up to 2m4f on a faster surface should bring about significant improvement. His flat form is slightly better than that of Gtaab, and that one was flattered in finishing so close at Wincanton last time. It’s such a poor race, that even if he can’t master the favourite, I would very much hope that he’ll be able to produce his best run so far over hurdles to finish in the frame.
6:05 – Lombok – 1.5pt each way at 12/1 (Boylesports, Hills, 10’s acceptable)
KILBEGGAN
6:20
Yes that’s right Kilbeggan! I have to say it’s rare for me to have a bet on a race in Ireland. I do watch all the races, but I don’t pay it enough attention to be able to make too many selections. Funnily enough it is usual the better class events that I do get involved in, if at all. However very occasionally I do note one down to look out and there is one such mare in this.
The problem is that it then takes me a long time to go through the form, as it’s not as familiar to me. However it’s fairly obvious that this is a very weak effort, highlighted by the fact that Dr Anubis had an 85 rated horse in front of him last time in a maiden at Clonmel, and yet is a warm favourite here. Macarthur is a shadow of the horse he once was, and is in terminal decline, yet he is the second favourite.
My selection is BOMBALONG who won a bumper in gritty fashion at Wexford last year, and a return to a faster surface could see an improvement on her efforts to date. Granted this is her third hurdling start, and she’ll undoubtedly be better served in handicaps, but this is such a weak event that were she to win it, she couldn’t be rated too highly. She raced up with the pace when she won, and that is probably the place to be again in a big field of poor horses. This step up in trip should suit on breeding, and i’ve checked through the last few years, and the stable have had horses run well back from a break. At 25/1 in such a poor event, she is worth a speculative wager.
6:20 – Bombalong – 1pt each way at 25/1 (B365, 20 or 16’s acceptable, bog)
Total P/L +232.15
BATH
2:10
This isn’t actually a race that took too much going into and COOLELLA rather stood out to me straight away. A lot seems to be, being made about her losing her way at the end of last season, well she didn’t! She found 6f too sharp at Carlisle, and clearly just doesn’t act on the all-weather so you can discount her last two starts (failed miserably on the sand at two as well). In between those efforts she was a fair third at Musselburgh off this mark, and her form earlier in the season gives her a fair chance in this.
It’s hardly a surprise that the going here is firm, she ran well on good to firm twice last season, and I wouldn’t be worrying on that score. John Weymes sent Welcome Appoach here to win at the last meeting (also runs on this card) and although some people might say this filly is just filling the horsebox, I don’t think thats the case. This easy mile should be ideal, she was competitive off higher marks last season, went well first time out last season, and in Luke Morris she has a more than capable jockey aboard.
I’ll probably regret saying it, but I think you can safely discount the bottom four here, so immediately you’ve got an eight runner field. The top two obvously hold solid chances, with Gee Major having recorded two victories over C&D last season, he does however need to prove he can go well fresh. Grey Boy is a lovely old horse, but he hasn’t quite produced his best in his starts here before, but he is still well treated and can’t be discounted. Goose Green has been running well enough over hurdles, but might just find things happening a little quickly over this trip.2:10 – Coolella – 1.5pt each way at 15/2 (Boylesports, PP, 7’s various)
HEREFORD
2;30
TOP ACHIEVER’S two runs back this season following a lay-off have offered more than a little encouragement, and having been dropped 3lb for his run here three weeks ago, he must have serious claims in a weaker race. Considering his run here came just five days after his comeback at Uttoxeter, I thought he ran most respectably in the circumstances, finishing fifth in a competitive little race won by Ministerofinterior. That was a race in which virtually none of the line-up could have been ruled out, unlike today’s affair, where it’s a real struggle to give a chance to half of these.
Top Achiever has raced sparingly in recent seasons, and hasn’t won since March 08, but that was here from a stone higher mark. The ground last time was still a little on tacky side (over-watered) and although I wouldn’t take the good to firm description too literally as it was still cutting up down the far side at the last meeting, i’m sure it’ll be firmer than it was last time for him, and that should help his cause. Ben Poste takes off a usual 7lb and it’s hard to see him not being involved in the shake-up.
Carlton Scroop is a fairly warm order (Saute later on the card is also short for the Best stable, perhaps this has been a long term plan for both) but anyone who knows this horse from the flat will know he is far from straightforward, and even if he has been laid out for this, i’d rather be a layer than a backer at the price.
2:30 – Top Achiever – 1.5pts each way at 7/1 (various)
PERTH
4:50
This is quite a warm little race, and the improving Shammick Boy, the experienced Hearthstead Dream, and the potentially well handicapped Martin Scruff are all feared to varying degrees, but SOUTH O’THE BORDER should appreciate this sounder surface, a return to 2m4f and indeed a return to Perth. A few years ago I thought he was going to make up into a really decent handicaper, but it didn’t quite happen for him. He has been tried over fences, but doesn’t really have the scope for those. Whilst he does handle soft/heavy ground, i’m in no doubt that he prefers it a little less taxing, and after a few runs over the winter he has come back down to a more favourable mark.
He ran a strange race last time at Bangor over 3m, where he dropped himself out a bit after halfway, only to run on again at the death. It was at least more encouraging than previous efforts this season, and I would expect him to be ridden a little more prominently here. Nigel Twiston-Davies won with his only runner here yesterday.
4:50 – South O’The Border – 2pt win at 7/1 (Betfred, Skybet, 13/2/6’s acceptable)
SOUTHWELL
6:15
A small field Hunter Chase in which Offshore Account is a warm order. That’s not surprising considering his excellent third in the Aintree Foxhunters last time. He’s obviously not the force of old, but he’s been holding his form well this season and is clearly the one to beat. I do however have enough doubts about him to think he might be worth taking on. Firstly although he won a good novice in Ireland on good ground, I do think he prefers some cut (previous wins were on soft/heavy). I also think he is suited by a strong gallop, as he travels well, and a tactical affair around here may not suit quite as well.
Breaking Silence doesn’t look the easiest of rides these days, and has to give weight away, and I think SPROSSER is worth chancing. He didn’t show much on his return to action at Huntingdon over hurdles in February, but that was a very strange race, where they all came home at long intervals, and after more than a year off he was entitled to need that. The fact that he only went off at 11/1 that day would suggest connections think some ability remains. He’s only had sixteen starts in his career and is clearly very fragile, but all his victories have come at left handed tracks, one here, and one at Fakenham, both on a sound surface, so conditions should suit him well. His jumping was always good over fences, and that should stand him in good stead with the useful Tom Garner in the plate being another positive.
7:45
A chance of sorts can be given to all of these, but I can’t get my head around why SMARTIES PARTY is the outsider of the field, and by quite some margin. I’ve been waiting a while for this mare to try 3m over hurdles, as I certainly think it will suit her, it’s just a shame she doesn’t come here in slightly better form. She ran terribly on her return at Wolverhampton on the flat in February, but last time at Kelso over 2m2f was more encouraging, although beaten a long way in 8th, it hinted that better was to follow.
She stays 2m on the flat well, and has usually been seen running on over 2m4f, and I can’t believe she won’t stay a sharp 3m around here. She was in the process of running very well off a 3lb higher mark at Aintree last June before coming down in the straight, and although the handicapper could have been a little kinder than just dropping her 2lb for last time, Jake Greenall takes off a further 7lb.
Her only career victory to date was in Mar 09 at Sedgefield in a novice event, but she’s had plenty of placed efforts since the, mostly on the flat, and is comparitively lightly raced over hurdles. They aren’t certaint to go much of a gallop here, and if it turns tactical she would have more pace than most.
Reefer Beefer did me a favour here last month, but he’s been whacked up 15lb, and I think thats put him right on the limit of his capabilities now. Fiddlededee will find this easier than some of the tasks she’s been set, but I question just how much enthusiasm she has for this racing lark. French Ties could pull too hard if they don’t go a gallop.
6:15 – Sprosser – 2pt win at 9/2 (various, bog)
7:45 – Smarties Party – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog, 20’s acceptable)The racing is better today, but having had a quick look at tomorrow’s cards, I hope I don’t curse it, by saying I think that could be the best day of the week, as racing from Hereford and Southwell over jumps oftens holds treasure.
Total P/L +239.15
PONTEFRACT
5:15
MISTER BEN VEREEN doesn’t look chucked in on his handicap debut, but he certanly looked the type to improve as a three year old, and he showed enough last season to suggest he could win a race or two off a mark in the 60’s. He looked a nice type in the paddock at Kempton on his debut, but he still had some filling out to do. He shaped with a bit of promise there in a muddling affair, but it was his Newbury run that created the best impression. Having pulled very hard in the first half of the race, he was then stopped in his run, but despite that he then did run on again at the death and to me it was a most eyecatching run. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the form as horses around him have either flopped or won off higher marks than he races off here.
The ground was a bit loose at Goodwood on his final start and he never looked at ease racing downhill. I wouldn’t be surprised if 7f was his trip this year, but this stiffish 6f is a good place to start. The godolphin horse Mariners Lodge will probably attempt to make all now dropping in trip, so a good gallop should be on the cards which will hopefully help the selection to settle. Mariners Lodge has shown speed before fading over further, and could be dangerous from the front, but i’m not convinced he is the most straightforward, and whether he’ll battle on up the straight is open to question.
5:15 – Mister Ben Vereen – 1pt each way at 12/1 (various, bog)
PERTH
5:35
Oscar’s Ballad is obviously the one that most eyes will be on, but it’s not so easy for the likes of Tony Martin and Gordon Elliott to come here and plunder these races now, and although this one was eyecatching last time, he does have to prove his effectiveness on this ground, and doesn’t exactly look thrown in here. He may win, but i’d much rather take a big price on TOP BRASS.
He’s had very little racing for a ten year old, in fact he had three years off from 2006 and was only seen once in 2009. He came back and ran two very respectable races last year, one of them in this very race. Granted he is racing off a higher mark, but he only just failed off a 1lb lower mark at Ayr in March and I think a return to this sounder surface can see him improve still further on that effort. Several of the jockey’s in this race don’t have much experience, whereas Mr Cully has ridden winners under rules and many in point to points, in fact he rode a big winner at Fairyhouse just a few days ago. He’ll hopefully be able to creep into the race on the second circuit and having his fourth start in three months, he should be as fit as he’s ever been now.
5:35 – Top Brass – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Skybet, or 22’s/20’s various)
NEWCASTLE
6:40
Despite the numbers i’m not sure this is all that competitive and WEETFROMTHECHAFF is an interesting contender now racing at this trip. He used to be with Reg Hollinshead and did most of his racing on the all-weather over 6f/7f. Since joining Maurice Barnes he has mixed both codes and finally got off the mark at Hexham over hurdles last summer.
As I said he was racing over sprint distances, but for this stable he has mainly been campaigned over further, and only at Haydock last season did he run over this 1m2f distance. That was in a lady amateur rider’s race, and with due respect he was given far too much to do on that occasion. He ran a couple of weeks ago over 1m4f at Catterick and performed most creditably in a better class race, only fading inside the last couple of furlongs.
I’m convinced that this is his trip on the flat, and the handicapper has been rather generous in my view, dropping him a couple of pounds for his reappearance. The excellent Philip Makin takes the ride, and this is the type of horse he often excels on. I’d imagine he’ll sit just off the lead on him, and if he’s in position he should be letting him stride on once they hit the straight.
6:40 – Weetfromthechaff – 1.5pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog, would accept 14’s)
The racing isn’t too good today. Plenty of small fields again, and I hope we get a touch of rain sooner rather than later. Despite that i’ve come up with a couple worth siding with.
Total P/L +244.15
YARMOUTH
Yarmouth was the first track I ever visited, as an eleven year old in 1992. I can remember some of the winners. Jokist a grey sprinter who I think was part owned by John Virgo, and a horse called The Karaoke Kid, my think I persuaded my old man to put £2 on each. It was a horrible day, wind, rain, and if ever I was going to be put off it was then, but no, to late, I was well and truly hooked!
4:10
The Godolphin horse dominants the market here, and of course he could just be a class above these. Personally backing a horse at around Evens who has only managed two starts, and was raised 7lb for finishing second, doesn’t make much appeal. He got stopped in his run at Sandown last season, but he had a chance to go by the winner and couldn’t manage it, and such a rise seems excessive. Winners have come from his Newmarket maiden success, but it wasn’t the strongest by that tracks standards, and i’m happy to oppose him with SWISS CROSS.
Gerard Butlers horse only finished 13th of 19 on his seasonal debut last year, but was beaten less than five lengths, and so it would be wrong to say he can’t go well first time out here. He did the majority of his running at Kempton last season, but he looks equally effective on turf, judging by his second places at Doncaster and Newmarket. Those were achieved over a mile, and 6f, and this 7f trip is probably just about spot on for him.
As a two year old he won on good to firm going and also handled it well enough last season, so i’ve no worries on that score. Neil Callan has ridden him to victory before, three of the trainers last five runners have won, and he looks a solid option against the favourite. Mata Keranjang has his share of temprament and was disappointing on his reappearace. Nobe Citizen usually needs his first start and Excellent Guest was also well beaten on his first start last season at this track.
4:10 – Swiss Cross – 1pt each way at 12/1 (Coral, 11’s Skybet, Totesport, SJ, 10’s elsewhere acceptable)
SEDGEFIELD
6:10
A nice prize for the grade, and it would be fitting if Arrow Barrow won for the sponsor John Wade. However i’d prefer it if he finished second to COOL BARANCA. This mare was, and still is capable enough on the flat, and in comparision to the likes of Bocciani and Odin’s Raven, she looks very well treated over hurdles. Of course she has yet to acheive as much over obstacles as they have, but the signs are there that she is able to do so. She had a quiet run round Musselburgh and returned to that venue and improved upon her initial effort with a fifth placed finish, beaten sixteen lengths behind Silverlord. She then ran here, and was never in the race at any stage on heavy ground, in a novice that she realistically had no chance in. That race was a qualifier for this event, and I would completely ignore that effort.
At Kelso last month she was running a nice race until she blundered three out and the tack went. Henry Brooke did very well to stay in the saddle, and the pair well still bang there when he managed to pull her up before the last. Had that not have happened, i’m sure she would have been in the first three.
On the flat she likes to ridden quietly from the back, and therefore who better to try and employ those tactics over hurdles than Graham Lee. She had what i’m sure was a sharpener for this on the flat at Redcar the other day, and it’ll be disappointing if she can’t be competitive off 90.6:10 – Cool Baranca – 1.5pt each way at 7/1 (Corals, B365)
Hi Yorkie, I know your not having a go at me
This post probably gets around 40/50 views a day on average, but such is the power of twitter my blog, which is essentially the same thing, gets around 1,500 now, half of those are the same people looking more than once throughout the day, but if i’ve got say 500 people individually looking, and i don’t know say 100 of those backing them, 100 people all backing the same few horses within a short time period, will I guess make a difference. It’s hard to tell, but when I was posting the night before I did notice several opening shorter than I would have expected, probably due to the fact some people would take shortish prices on betfair the night before and that rings alarm bells with the bookies, strange world! I do try and tally up the p/l with realistically, and use prices that were around for at least half an hour after i posted, providing they were within my parameters. Were I using Betfair SP it would be far higher, unfortunately i’ve not kept records to show what it would be showing to actual SP, although some have drifted a lot, and i’m not sure it would be much different.Just a couple more to add, even though the fields are small, there aren’t too many races that are forgone conclusions, beware the short priced yankees etc, bookmakers love days like today!
Total P/L +253.15
FAKENHAM
3:00
By process of elimination DR FINLEY has to be the call in this at the prices. Recent Chepstow winner Not So Sure Dick isn’t guaranteed to be suited to racing around here (old fashioned staying type), whereas i’m not convinced Chicklemix wants this far yet, although if she’ll stay anywhere it’s here. Chervonet looks one to avoid at present, and apparently has had a breathing problem. The favourite is Pickworth and he is the most likely winner. He could still be improving and a 6lb rise is fair for his Southwell win, but if they don’t go much of a gallop that won’t play to his strengths and he would be very vulnerable to the selection. Dr Finley is yet to win a race, but he’s fairly consistent and is still open to improvement over hurdles. He stays 1m6f on the flat and 2m4f around here could prove to be ideal over hurdles. He has run well enough on firm ground at Brighton and the ground shouldn’t pose a problem. He started out by running well in a couple of juvenile hurdles before contesting the graded Wensleydale hurdle at Wetherby, the race won by 200/1 chance Maoi Chinn Tire. That was a substandard renewal and clearly Grandouet didn’t run to form, but it was still a fair effort from Dr Finley in mid-division. He then started favourite for his handicap debut here over 2m and was staying on all the time, and was beaten less than two lengths into third. He was outclassed in a novice at Newbury won by Third Intention, but has since run well over 2m on the all-weather at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago, to prove his current wellbeing. I’m not suggesting he is particularly well handicapped, but conditions look ideal, he should be capable of better and however the race is race he should be able to adapt, he is quite simply the wrong price.
3:00 – Dr Finley – 2pt win at 15/2 (Blue Sq, 7’s Boylesports, 13/2 various acceptable, would also take 6’s if necessary)
FFOS LAS
3:55
DARAZ ROSE was a little eyecatching last time (I backed her!) and I still think most of her ability is there. She has been dropped a further 5lb and that makes her very interesting in this, with conditions ideal. I thought Mr Timmons rathed nursed her round at Warwick, and could have finished several lengths closer if he’d wanted too. I’m not suggesting any wrong doing as clearly she wasn’t going to be placed, but beaten twenty lengths gives a false impression of how she fared. She stays 3m but I think this trip is probably ideal and good/good to firm ground poses no problem. Definitley Lovely will probably put the pace to the race, and she should be able to settle out the back and gradually creep into it. At ten years old she is in the twilight of her career, but she’s a classier mare than a mark of 95 would imply. She comes here fresher than her main rivals and ought to give a good account.
Gilwen Glory has had a few had races this season and now looks weighted to the hilt, the same could be said of Am I Blue who is famous for landing a big gamble at Hereford, although she shaped well again last time. Definitley Lovely has a very mixed profile, although last time wasn’t her true running, as she was unnerved by a bad mistake early on. The enigma that is Giovanna has carried my money the last twice. She showed more last time, but it was a bunch finish on that occasion, and whilst she undoubtedly has the ability to win here, she’s not one i’d want to be taking a shortish price about.3:55 – Daraz Rose – 2pt win at 8/1 (various, bog, would accept 7’s)
Thank God (well it is easter) Sonus Weld didn’t run after the performances of the other three, abysmal would sum it up, but when it happens it is at least good it happens on a quieter day. I can easily explain Oranger’s failure, they didn’t ride him handy and he became disinterested, that was always the risk with him. Jambo Bibi ran the worst race of her career by a mile (almost how far she was beaten!) and Ya Boy Sir was given a strange ride, after just missing the break, he was bussled along to get to the front, but didn’t stay there very long! Alas it was due.
I’m putting two up for Monday now, because I have the time to do so, and because i’m happy with the prices on offer, thats not to say they won’t be available at bigger odds tomorrow when more bookmakers price them up, but thats the beauty of Best Odds Guaranteed. I’ll add to them in the morning around 10.30am/11am.
Total P/L +253.15
REDCAR
2:00
Doctor Parkes did me a favour when winning here last week and i’m hoping SONG OF PARKES who is a relative, can also do the business for the same owner, trainer and jockey combination. This one is out of My Melody Parkes (8th in Bosra Sham’s 1000 guineas, 1996, not bad considering she was essentially a sprinter) who is a half sister to Lucky Parkes the dam of Doctor Parkes! Is that all clear…………right well it’s been noticable to be down the years that nearly every horse from this family tends to start the season well but over the course of the year they do often lose their form if they’ve had a few runs. This filly didn’t finish off her three year old campaign too well in a couple of handicaps, and wasn’t seen again after her last run in July. Don’t be fooled by the fact those two efforts over 5f weren’t as good as her three over 6f. Despite the fact she is by Fantastic Light, the dams side has obviously taken over, she has plenty of speed and although she clearly gets 6f, this trip will be fine for her. The horses that beat her at Doncaster in a maiden last year, Victory Ide Say and Burning Thread, both went on and won off marks in the 80’s and 90’s and i’m sure this filly is capable of running to a mark in the mid 70’s, and off 68 here she looks fairly well treated if any problem she’s had is behind her. A few of these like to make the running, so much like Doctor Parkes the other day, i’d expect her to be within a length or two of the leaders, travelling nicely, and then hopefully when Robert Winston asks her the question she’ll be able to change gear. At 14/1 she looks well worth backing.
2:00 – Song Of Parkes – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (B365, bog, would accept 12’s/10’s if necessary)
WARWICK
2:25
Quite a number of these are consistent and it’s a competitive little race, but i’m struggling to find many, if any, that you could honestly say look well handicapped, although I think there is every chance that COME ON SAFARI is capable of better. He shaped well as a two year old for Peter Winkworth, running with credit in maidens at Windsor and Bath over this trip, before winning over 7f at Folkestone. His only start in a nursery came over a mile on the all-weather at Lingfield, where he was beaten four lengths in fifth, having been given a fair bit to do. He only made one appearance last season in a fairly hot handicap at Sandown over a mile, and he was never involved, possibly because he didn’t quite get the trip, although his absence from the racecourse suggests all may not have been well afterwards. He made his comeback for this yeard four weeks ago, again over a mile at Lingfield, in what was a five runner race, and as usual the early pace wasn’t strong. He was very fresh and pulled too hard, which he paid for at the end of his race, although I thought it was encouraging enough for the future. The form of his Folkestone win has been hit and miss, although Onyx of Arabia and most notably Spanish Duke, have since gone on to do well. I was taken with him that day, and if whatever injury he had has been resolved, I do think he is potentially well treated. Were this over 7f I would be more confident as personally I think that is probably going to be his optimum trip, but I feel he has enough pace to cope with 6f, and from his draw in four, he should get a good toe into the race. Normally i’d be looking for one that likes to make it around here, but I can see them going off too fast and on this occasion it could pay to side with more of a hold up horse, like the selection.
2:25 – Come On Safari – 1pt each way at 16/1 (B365, bog, would accept 14’s)
I just love all this so called crooked low level racing!
At the start of the day I would have happily settled for a winner and a place, and the fact it was Vintage Fabric, my strongest selection , that won is just a bonus. He was given a great ride by his inexperienced jockey and battled on well. Bureaucrat was a non runner at Kelso, but Bow School looked happy out in front, he was just outsped, rather than outstayed, on the run-in by Rolecarr. Gertmegalush didn’t break well and was never able to land a blow after that. Wild Desert ran a moody race at Haydock and seemed to down tools halfway down the back straight, and Worth A King’s didn’t go with any zest either. I’m using 12’s on Vintage Fabric for my calculations as the 14’s had gone by the time I posted but 12’s was available for over half an hour afterwards, he was well supported! I’m using just 14’s (+ 5p rule 4) for Bow School in the interest of fairness, as the 18’s was only available with one bookmaker, as was 16’s when I posted. It adds up to a profit of 17.76Total P/L +258.65
4:45
I got up early on Saturday morning, and it was late by the time I got to this race, I thought I was seeing things when I noticed that ORANGER had been dropped 13lb for his last run, yes 13lb! That is a very rare occurence, and I can’t honestly see why the handicapper has been so drastic. Sure Oranger hasn’t been competitive so far this season, but he’s been running on ground that is softer than ideal, and he’s been given every chance now, racing off a mark of just 81. On his best hunter chase form of last season he would hold outstanding claims in this, and it’s surely far too soon to write him off completely. The ground aside, it might just be that he comes to himself at this time of year, and the main concern here is probably the trip. If this were over 3m2f I would be more confident, I don’t think he’s so slow that he can’t win over this trip, but I would like to see him race in the first couple. Ilongue is the only one of these who has been racing prominently of late, and were he to race with him or just sit in behind that would be ideal. He’s the sort of horse who will quickly lose interest if he starts to get adrift and it will probably be evident by halfway whether or not he’s on a going day.
5:15
Insignia has a 7lb penalty for his Fontwell win on Tuesday, although Ed Glassonbury takes off 6lb. I didn’t immediately think he was a candidate to follow up next time, but this is an equally weak race and he obviously has a good chance. Hereditary was my pick in that race, but he was hampered and never got involved, to be honest I don’t think that made the world of difference, and it’s fairly hard to see him beating Insignia just a few days later. I’m not a fan of Storm Command and anyone backing him in this at 4/1 or thereabouts has probably spent too much time in the sun of late. Because I think the favourite is beatable and it is such a poor event, i’m prepared to take a small chance on SONUS WELD. She didn’t look too keen on starting here last time, but she was fine when she was racing, and put up her best performance to date (not saying much really) as she was still in contention until fading rapidly half a mile out. That was over 3m2f and this drop back in trip to 2m5f looks to be the right move. I think there is every chance the ground made a difference to her last time as well, she had been struggling on heavy ground, and looking at her action I think the faster conditions help her. She has been dropped 7lb since last time, and Nathan Sweeney takes off another 3lb. She is a speculative selection, but at a double figure price in a race like this, the chance is worth taking.
4:45 – Oranger – 1pt each way at 9/1 (he was 12’s when I started typing, wouldn’t take less than 9’s, might drift back out)
5:15 – Sonus Weld – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 (SJ, or 11 Hill’s, Blue Sq, 10’s acceptable)MUSSELBURGH
5:10
I was hoping something would stand out in the main 7f handicap of the day, but at the prices nothing did, this more modest three year old event over the same trip has tempted me more and JAMBO BIBI is the selection. She’s had twelve starts to date, nine of those were for Richard Hannon and she is pretty much exposed now, although she’s not had that many chances on turf. She ran a nice race over this trip when fifth of sixteen at Newmarket on good ground in August last year, and she showed she handled a bit of cut in the ground when running on in third over 6f at Brighton. Despite her three second places being over 5f early last season, she clearly needs further than that now, and I think this trip around this track should be right up her street. She’s modest but usually runs her race, and i’ve got doubts over several of these on account of their attitude. She’s been given a real chance by the handicapper and the blinkers have been reapplied.
5:40
If I said that YA BOY SIR had a patchy overall profile that would be an understatement, but should he be a 16/1 shot in this line-up, I don’t think so. He won here over C&D last season off a mark of 52, and then again two starts later at Ayr off 59 (on soft ground, so the conditions here won’t pose a problem) he’s back down to 55 now and that gives him another chance of success. He’s not the easiest horse to work out, as at times he shows a lot of speed, and other other occasions he can’t seem to lay up at all. I think it’s more down to his mental state than anything else, and i’ve no doubt that 5f is his trip. To that end he didn’t fare too badly last time at Catterick over 6f, where after a slow start he was soon on the heels of the leaders before fading at the furlong pole. There isn’t a real speedball in this that will blast off at a rate of knots, so he should be able to stay in touch early on, and it’ll be interesting to see what effect, if any, the first time blinkers have (he ran terribly in cheekpieces, and ok in a visor!).
5:10 – Jambo Bibi – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 (various,bog, 14’s acceptable)
5:40 – Ya Boy Sir – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various,bog, 12’s acceptable)
