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Thanks for the messages after Mister Bit won on Thursday.
What a busy Saturday, and i’ve got half a dozen selections today (two in the same race). There should have been another one in Beat The Rush, who is in my ten to follow list (see notebook section). He runs in the Musselburgh Gold Cup this afternoon, just as Julie Camacho told me he would, and clearly this has been his early season target. 12/1 last night was a very fair price, and maybe one or two people remembered him from the list and backed him, even 10’s would be fair. However he has been the subject of good support and as I type even 8’s is becoming rare. At his current price it would be wrong of me to suggest backing him, in what is a competitive race, but I really do like this horse, I think he’s got a big handicap in him, and fingers crossed he runs well enough today to suggest a good season awaits him. Major Domo is another from the ten to follow out today, in a four runner maiden at Nottingham, it’s a weak race with a Cecil trained favourite in opposition.
Total P/L +240.89
HAYDOCK
4:35
WILD DESERT should be excused his two starts for Charlie Longsdon so far and he looks the bet at the prices in this competitive fixed brush handicap hurdle. Given that it is being run over the mini fences, it is important to make sure that your chosen horse has a good technique as they won’t get away with clattering these obstacles in the way they do the normal hurdles. I’ve no worries on that score for Wild Desert who is usually a fluent hurdler. On his first start for the stable, he was a bit keen and found 3m too far. Last time at Newbury he was very well backed, and quite simply the promising condition Kielan Woods appeared to get his fractions wrong, setting off too fast, and the horse was a spent force by the time he turned into the straight. I’m a big fan of Felix De Giles, who I think is riding as well as he ever has done at the moment, and I just wonder if they might decide to change tactics and not front run this time. Thats not to say he couldn’t win if he did, but in first time cheekpieces they may decide to try and settle him in amongst horses. He is a real top of the groud horse, who will appreciate the surface here (as long as Kirkland hasn’t forgotten to turn the taps off). The Longsdon horses are in flying form at present with 8 of the last 12 reaching the frame, and Felix could just get the best out of this horse.
Most of his rivals come here in better form. Pure Faith won nicely at Ffos Las last time, but that was an extremely muddling affair. Havingotascoobydo has been raised 12lb for winning at Ludlow, and that looks harsh to me, with Troubletimestwo and Mad Moose filling the places, it wasn’t as strong a race as this looks, and he has it all to do now, on the quickest ground he will have ever encountered.5:10
I was torn between two last night, but having weighed things up, WORTH A KING’S is the selection, he is certainly a bigger price than I was expecting. He has won over this hurdles here before which is a positive, and although that was on soft ground, his action, and the overall balance of his form suggest he does want the ground he gets here today. He’s won on good to firm at Epsom, you only do that if you really can handle fast conditions. Like many second season hurdlers he has struggled this season, but I think he started off in handicaps off a stiff enough mark, and it’s only now that he is able to race off a realistic weight. Throughout the winter he has been held up on soft ground, and more often than not has never really got into the race at any stage, seemingly sulking a little. The return to faster ground should enable him to travel better, and having raced over 3m+ the last twice, a return to 2m4f is also in his favour. His stablemate Pie At Midnight should make the running, but I hope they ride this horse more positively than they have been doing, as I believe that will bring about an improved performance.
Agglestone Rock is very short in the betting, and i’m certainly taking him on at the price. Rifleman was the other one I was considering, as he has won, and finished second for Richard Lee after a break, and personally I don’t think the drop in trip will be a problem for him. However it can’t really be argued that he is well handicapped at this stage of his career, and the form of the yard is also a little offputting.4:35 – Wild Desert – 1pt each way at 12/1 (Corals, Hills, 10’s acceptable)
5:10 – Worth A Kings – 1pt each way at 14/1 (B365, Boylesports,bog or Stan James, 12’s acceptable)NEWTON ABBOT
5:25
The racing post database can be a slightly confusing place at the moment now that they’ve changed all the names, so the jockey/trainer first names are showing. If you click on Lisa O’Neill the rider of VINTAGE FABRIC, her profile suggests she hasn’t ridden a winner. In the back of my mind I thought he had won with a female rider aboard, and after delving a little deeper I found that Lisa has ridden him to success here in the past, but then she was merely L O’Neill on the database!! The two things that stand out in a positive sense about this horse are that he has twice gone well after a break of more than five months, and that he loves Newton Abbot, three of his four victories have come here. I would imagine most people would write him off on account of the trip, as all his wins here have been over 2m3f. It’s fair to say he hasn’t always performed well over this far, although he was second of fifteen at Wincanton over exactly this distance two seasons ago, and he isn’t stopping in his races over shorter. To me the most obvious explanation for his failure to win at this trip so far is simply that he has always been running off too high a mark. Had he been running off today’s mark of 95 (his last winning mark) he may have won over further already. Quite clearly he loves this fast ground, he should be able to sit in behind the likely pacesetter Heir To Be and i’m struggling to find too many negatives for him, he should give a good account, in what is, lets face it a race lacking in solid recent form.
5:25 – Vintage Fabric – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (SJ, 12’s various acceptable, any double figures would be fine)
NOTTINGHAM
6:30
This isn’t a race to get too involved with, several characters amongst the eleven that line up, including my selection GERTMEGALUSH. He was a speedy and fairly useful two year old, but like they so often do he struggled for the most part last season, and returns here today off a career low mark. After moving to John Harris halfway through the season, they seemed intent on campaigning him over 6f/7f, and by holding him up over that trip. Whilst he may not have been in the best form at the time, i’m convinced he wants to race within a few lengths of the leaders over this minimum trip. The question is whether he breaks well enough to be able to do that as he can sometimes just miss the start. He has flashed his tail a few times, and clearly has his quirks (although not as many as Lees Anthem), and he is the sort of horse who is likely to go well first time up (ran well on racecourse debut, and then after a four month break on his first start at three). Whereas a few of his rivals are certainly capable of winning off their current mark, I just think he is potentially 7lb/10lb better than his current rating implies, and if he gets away on level terms he should go well in this.
6:30 – Gertmegalush – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog)
KELSO
6:45
I know some people won’t/don’t like backing two in the same race, but I think two of these standout by a mile at the prices. BOW SCHOOL was disappointing when I sided with him last time at Hexham, but the ground was just that bit too soft for him (I posted the night before thinking it would dry out a bit) and he can have no excuses here now on good to firm ground, down 2lb for that run. I think this drop in trip for him is an interesting move, and potentially a good one. I’ve long since thought he had enough pace for a galloping 2m, and this 2m2f around here ought not to be a problem. He ran well here over 2m7f earlier this season on this ground, but didn’t quite get home up the long run in. That was a good effort in a novice behind Jurisdiction and a repeat of that effort, over what I believe to be a more suitable trip should put him bang there. The application of blinkers for the first time is another positive, as although he nearly always travels well through his races, he can often idle when he hits the front, thats not to say there is anything ungenuine about him.
BUREAUCRAT is the other eyecatcher in this race, not since Nov 09 has he encountered ground as lively as this, and what happened then,he won! Bar a claiming hurdle win at Fontwell, all his victories have come on ground without soft in the description, and having run on soft/heavy going through the winter, quite respectably in some cases, we should see an improved effort now. Of course the result of getting beaten several times on slow ground is that his handicap mark has plummeted. He ran his best race this season at Musselburgh (on what would be the best ground he has raced on this winter) in the Scottish County Hurdle, and that was off a mark of 117 three starts ago, he races off 107 here and he could definitely win a race like this if on a going day. He did seem to go the wrong way for his former trainer, but he hasn’t shown any real sign of waywardness for Kate Walton, and although he’s not a horse to rely on, everything looks right for him to run well.6:45 – Bow School – 1pt each way at 18/1 (Vc, 16/14’s acceptable, bog) Bureaucrat – 1pt each way at 14/1 (Betfred, Vc, 12’s acceptable)
My last post on this subject! and for once i’m going to have to slightly disagree with you Tuffers. Your probably right when you say that not many people that go racing are bothered about taking a price. But surely that money doesn’t actually add up to much. Most people at Hereford the other week, on free entry day were betting a pound or two per race. Of the bigger players now, how many would have £1,000 or more on the tote? I don’t bet in quite those amounts, but I wouldn’t want to bet £2 never mind £200 if I don’t know what price i’m getting.
I know people will say it works in France, Hong Kong etc etc, but thats what they know, they’ve always had it. I honestly believe it simply would not work in this country.Ricky
Having read your post a few times, i’m still not sure what your driving at. But i’m damn sure I won’t be reflecting on what i’ve said in 12 months time with "dismay". I’ll carry on my previews and in 12 months time, I will just repeat what i’ve already said. Betting in running is for people that can’t work out what is going to happen beforehand
Anthony, i’m glad you stepped in about the Bank Holiday fixtures. On the one hand we have people moaning that racing is under the bookmakers thumb, and then we get the quite extroadinary comments that they’re too many meetings this bank holiday monday, too many, there aren’t enough! They’ll all be packed out, as indeed they were years ago when you had 13/14 meetings on a bank holiday.
I’m not getting drawn into the small field arguments, suffice to say we had very few runners at Wincanton yesterday and bar the first I had no clue what was going to win 2f out.
It really annoys me when people refer to the midweek meetings as "dross". Without this dross how would up and coming jockeys get a start? how would the owner with not much money be able to have a horse? If you took away all the information, I guarantee most people would have difficulty in telling whether they were watching a 50 rated sprinter, or one rated 100.
I think i’ve made my point, i’ll carry on watching, enjoying and betting on the dross around the likes of Cartmel and Plumpton, and just peering over the sofa occasionally when i’m faced with million dollar horses, most of whom won’t reach a rating of 90, running in a straight line at Newmarket, owned by Sheikh someone or other, and probably trained by someone who charges the earth and is labelled as great when they manage to win a listed race with one of the charges.
**Max, I’ve just read your latest post, you say that a tote monopoly would increase prize money massively, and then you say that would in turn mean that owners/trainers etc wouldn’t need to back their horses, maybe i’m being silly, but doesn’t that then drastically reduce the amount being bet and therefore you wouldn’t get massively increased prize money, because no sod would want to back anything on the tote! which was the point I was trying to make earlier**
Zarkava
I’m not saying you or anyone else is wrong when you think that a horse running deliberately under it’s wrong conditions is the equivalent of defrauding punters, but I do see it differently. All the information is there for all to see, Spanish Bounty was a prime example at Windsor on Monday night. Just four starts ago he had been very competitive off a mark of 87, three sub standard efforts on ground softer than ideal (one was too bad to be true) resulted in him dropping fully 12lb. Quite how he was ever available at 28/1 I don’t know, but is that really cheating when a horse is trying his hardest in a race, but conditions aren’t in his favour? I don’t think it is, I’m quite happy when I know that i’ve watched a race and I feel as confident as I can be that they were all trying. Sussing out which horses are very unlikely to win because conditions aren’t in their favour, is the reward for putting in the hours.
Having said all of that half the time it really is just bad placing by a lot of trainers that produces odd results. Someone said to me the other day after Shouldavenownbettr won at Hereford that he knew someone from the stable, and they had zero confidence in his chance (33/1) and that Mr Sheppard didn’t have a clue what trip/ground to run him on and was just experimenting!I don’t mean to come across as bolshie, but there does seem to be an awful lot of cynical thinking around. A bad ride these days is usually construed as a crooked ride.
I’ve read a lot of people saying that they don’t like betting on low grade races because horses don’t run to their form as often, I totally accept that point. But it’s really not as straightforward as that, they’re are an awful lot of trainers that really really haven’t any idea when it comes to placing horses, and that often results in an outcome that can often look a bit "dodgy" unless you look closer.
Tuffers, and others are right, you only have to look at Joses handicapping thread to see that the system is a bit of a joke. Having far more claimers etc would be far better. But if i’m honest i don’t mind it as it is, because it is usually quite easy to spot horses that are running over the wrong trip, on the wrong ground etc, that get dropped 10lb for three runs, and then are entered under their ideal conditions. However I can understand that most people don’t like that…………….
A tote monopoly is a horrible thought to my mind, other countries might be used to it, but do you honestly think that a lot of large punters in this country will continue to bet in the volume they do, or even at all, when you’ve got no idea what odds your getting. You say it’ll bring in more money, is that guaranteed? Racing may not get much of the money I turnover on my betting, but if a tote monopoly came in, it would get nothing, because I would just stop betting.
"Most of the time there are only two or three triers in an eight horse race. Usually only one"
I don’t know what to say, Max, if you truly believe that then I can only wonder why you bother to continue watching/going racing and contributing to this forum.
I spend 7/8 hours a day going through the form, watching endless replays etc etc. Now if I thought racing was anywhere near as corrupt as the majority of you lot seem to think it is, then I wouldn’t bother, because clearly I wouldn’t be able to win.
Hand on heart, I reckon I see about 1 in 100 horses probably not running on merit. What I do see however is around 1 in 4 running in completely the wrong race. If you think thats cheating, fair enough, I disagree. It’s playing the game to obtain a handicap mark they can win off, or in some cases it’s incompetent trainers who might be able to train horses, but have no idea when it comes to placing them. and if your willing to put in the hours, you too can play the game.
I said the other day i’d try and start a few positive threads, to be honest I think i’d be wasting my time on here.
I’ve been racing three times in the past two weeks, it’s not dead or dying, i’ve backed numerous horses in the past weeks who have drifted markedly before the off and still won (one from 12’s to 22’s, one 14’s to 33’s, even just yesterday 6’s to 10’s)
If you want it to be as squeaky clean as it possibly can be, then sure lets have a tote monopoly, ban the exchanges, get rid of all the handicaps. Let’s turn in into a cross between french and american racing and make it as boring as we possibly can.
What worries me is that this forum is supposedly full of people that love the game, and yet hardly anyone seems to have a good thing to say about it.
Oh well the whole sport is corrupt then, it must be a complete fluke that I can make money on the low grade racing without having any "inside" information, and without having to bet close to the off. Just as well i’ve been to Hereford, Epsom and Wincanton in the last few days, as you two also seem to want to close a lot of the tracks down.
I know it’s late now, perhaps i’ll wake up in the morning and i’ve dreamt this thread.
I’ll tell you why there was nothing wrong with the Ben Cee Pee M race later, although if you bothered to delve a little deeper without jumping on the nearest bandwagon you might see for yourself.
Michael ssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, let people keep dismissing them, the less people that truly look at this type of race the better for those of us that much prefer the lower grade races (at least from a punting perspective).
A small profit on Wednesday thanks to The Wee Midget (using 7/1) although it’s a shame the favourite came out, meaning a 25p rule 4 deduction
A first trip to Wincanton for almost exactly ten years awaits me (27th April 2001 to be precise) A day that saw Timmy Murphy give the old horse I part owned a strange ride, Paul Nicholls had the first five winners, three ridden by Joe Tizzard, two by Paddy Brennan, and a card which had two divisions of the bumper, and yet despite that they were worth more than the one today! If only the Sporting Life forecast of 4/6 for Miss Overdrive in the first was true, or even the 8/15 predicted by the Racing Post, if so i’d be having a rare bet at odds-on, but alas no she’ll be 2/7 or thereabouts. It should be an enjoyable day, but the card has cut up, and i’ll be happy to watch without getting too financially involved.
Just the one bet, and it’s actually on the Folkestone card. I should be posting on Friday about my plan for the blog in the long term, if not it’ll be included on Saturday morning, with that days selections.
Total P/L +230.89
FOLKESTONE
4:00
MISTER BIT didn’t see the racecourse until August last year, and that was his only run on turf to date. I have noticed him a few times in his races at Lingfield, and it’s fair to say he does look to be a bit of a "character". He has had a tendency to hit a bit of a flat spot in his races, only to run on again, and the first time blinkers may well have the desired effect in sharpening him up for the duration of the race. He is related to horses that have won on turf, his dam won on firm ground, and being by Tobougg I can’t see any obvious reason why he won’t handle conditions, looking at his action you’d say fast ground ought not to be a problem. I get the distinct impression that purely on abililty he is better than his rivals, and i’m really pinning my hopes on the application of headgear to spark him into life. He has shown a good turn of foot on more than one occasion, and that could make the difference in this. Final Try may try and make the running again, but even if they don’t go much of a gallop, Mister Bit hasn’t shown any sign of being keen in the slowly run races around Lingfield, so however the race pans out, he should be able to adapt.
Four of his six rivals have won races, but only Derby Desire has won on the turf. Most of these are all-weather specialists, but Vezere aside, they are all exposed and having dropped a few pounds for his return from a winter break last time, Mister Bit could be on a low enough mark to strike.4:00 – Mister Bit – 1pt win at 6/1 or better
I’m about to leave for Epsom, and it’s Wincanton tomorrow, so the this might be updated late tonight (very late, Spurs v Arsenal this evening, as it’ll be quite an early start in the morning.
Ok onto today’s selections, and i’m much happier now i’ve not got Pontefract to deal with. I’m not a superstitious person, but I can think of good results i’ve had at nearly every track in the country, but I just can’t think of anything that stands out at Pontefract!
If I had posted last night I would have suggested Gaily Noble at 40’s for the 3:45 at Epsom, he ran well here last year, and I think he’ll stay this far at this track, and he’s fairly handicapped these days. As i’m going I will have small investment in a few of the races, but nothing really stands out, although all of the handicaps are interesting, the sprint looks very tough to call, my vote just goes to Fratellino.
Total P/L +227.79
HEREFORD
4:05
I won’t trust the ground until i’ve seen the first race (good to firm apparently) but whether it is good to firm or good to soft, or something in between, I think DRUSSELL will handle it, and i’m giving him another chance after I also selected him at Uttoxeter last time. Whilst he clearly wasn’t going to trouble the leader that day, he was badly impeded at the second last, and I think if you halve the distance he was finally beaten by, you’ll get a truer picture as he wasn’t ridden aggressively after that incident. Most of his runs have been on softer ground, but he did won on good ground at Ayr, and arguably travelled better than he ever has that day, so I don’t think conditions will inconvienience him. The 2m4f trip around here shouldn’t be an issue, and I was encouraged by how he went through the race at Uttoxeter, showing a lot more of his old sparkle.
Not many of his rivals are in much form, Big Robert ran well here at the last meeting, and Top Achiever didn’t fare too badly in the same race, on a second quick run after an absence. I’m not sure they will be going too quickly early on here, as there isn’t a natural front runner, and that should suit Drussell who is an uncomplicated type, whilst a few of these are known for taking not being the easiest to settle during the early part of their races.4:40
My initial thoughts on this race were to leave it alone, as I’ve backed no less than eight of the eleven runners in the past twelve months, some more successfully than others, and I wasn’t sure i’d be able to have an objective view on it. But because I know so much about them, it should help me get a positive result. Peqeno Diablo is dropping like a stone in the handicap and tempted me in a little last time. A further 5lb drop is helpful obviously, but he’s had a soft lead the last twice and still been fairly well beaten. Another 5lb off will get him down to 90 and then may be the time to back him, perhaps over this trip at Newton Abbot in a few weeks time, keep your eyes peeled. Diddley Dee won’t stay this trip, next. Sumner didn’t want to make the running last time, and ran too free as a result. This comes quickly enough after that effort and the trip is a concern. Border Lad did me a big favour here when winning his first race, but the handicapper looks to have him now, and this faster ground isn’t sure to help his cause either. Bollywood is very modest and is still 8lb higher than when winning at this time last year over 2m4f at Wincanton. Carys’s Lad i’ve backed the last twice, and last time he ran a very odd race. After not travelling from an early stage, he consented to run on late in the day and wasn’t beaten far in the end. That’s not his normal style of running, but if he repeats that i’m not convinced Mark Bradburne is the right jockey to have aboard, and whilst I will be annoyed if he does win, i’ve given him his chances and at the price he can run without my money this time around. There is a chance Ginolad could do better now over hurdles, but it’s not really his jumping of fences that has been a problem, so I have my doubts. Rossbrin is just about the most likely to run his race having found some consistency of late, and conditions aren’t a problem, but he’s plenty short enough in the market. Grand Fella and Sam’s Pride look to have it all to do on all known evidence.
THE WEE MIDGET is therefore the selection. I know Arthur Whiting’s horses always improve for their first outing after a break, and given that, he run here over C&D three weeks ago was most encouraging. He was beaten eleven lengths into fifth place behind the handicap good thing E Street Boy, but the first five pulled clear, with twenty six lengths back to the sixth horse. He looked on good terms with himself that day, but was probably too fresh and that should have brought him on nicely. He is only 3lb higher than when winning at Towcester in October, is still relatively unexposed in comparision to his rivals, and should appreciate the better ground. His dam Fragrant Rose won two races here (just thought i’d throw that in) and heres hoping he follows in her footsteps, he’s overpriced to do so anyway.4:05 – Drussell – 2pts each way at 8/1 (various, bog)
4:40 – The Wee Midget – 2pts each way at 8/1 (Coral or Skybet, 8’s had gone by the time i’d posted on here, 7’s acceptable)NEWCASTLE
7:05
I’m excited (sad I know) I’ve found one that not many people will have, and it’s not one i’d originally noted down. LADY LUBE RYE has form figures of 06/009-0, she’s from a small stable and has with due respect, an unfashionable jockey aboard in Duran Fentiman. She wasn’t a bad little two year old in 2009, and she was an early one, running three times in April, improving each time, culminating in a Redcar maiden win. After two lesser efforts, three solid ones followed at Haydock, York and Musselburgh, all in fair nurseries off a mark of 67. That season ended with two quieter efforts, and she only appeared three times last season. After not being totally disgraced first time at Haydock, she was stepped up to 6f at Ayr, and ran well until fading inside the final furlong. For some strange reason she tried a mile in June on her final start, and quite predictably, she didn’t get home (by some margin). Given she was a precocious two year old filly, you have expected that she would struggle at three, but I assume she had a few problems, and only once, on her reappearance did she run over 5f, which appears to be her trip. Here over C&D twelve days ago she completely missed the break and lost four or five lenths to start with. She was beaten less than six lengths, wasn’t given too hard a time in the final furlong, and as horses from this yard tend to improve for their seasonal debut, all in all it wasn’t that bad an effort. Well she’s been dropped 2lb more, having fallen 11lb for three starts last season, which means she races off 47 here, just 47. I honestly believe she has enough ability to win off that mark, whether it’s today who knows, but it’s not that strong a contest, and the stable have had a couple of winners lately, Ingleby Star won the race the selection ran in the other day here, and that was his second run back, and Hunters Belt won at Wetherby over hurdles on Sunday, having also had a previous start. Last time was the only time in her career that she’d blown the start, so thats not a major concern, and if she does get away on terms, I honestly think she is way overpriced. Thats the reason i’m going 1.5pt each way, not because I think she’s the most likely winner, clearly she isn’t, but she, in my opinion, is about twice the price she should be, and when I think that, I have to go in strong, even if she is still an outsider.
7:05 – Lady Lube Rye – 1.5pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog)
SOUTHWELL
These two are very speculative, both are similar in terms of their level of ability, in that they don’t have much, but I think both have just enough to win the kind of race they are in today. They will both probably be struggling after a furlong or two, but in the past they have indicated that if and when things drop right for them, a modest race may come their way. You’ll probably be better off backing them at double the price in running not long after the off, but at the current prices i’m happy to stick them both on here to small (very) stakes.
2:45
The first division of the 0-55 7f handicap and CHARITY FAIR is at the foot of the handicap. This filly was with Alan Berry at two and three, a handicap to start with, and after several starts I was of the opinion that another trainer might be able to squeeze a win out of her. She was sold for 1,500 guineas in December as in now with Ron Barr, not a household name but he does get better results with his small string than Alan Berry. The pattern of her races is she gets herself pretty much tailed off in flat race terms and then when in the mood she often makes up a lot of headway late on in the day. Her better efforts have come with cut in the ground, and I think she’ll handle the surface, although whether she’ll face the kickback is anyones guess. I think this is her trip, and it’s safe to ignore her Wolverhampton run for this yard the other day. 6f around there would be too sharp, and carrying ten stone in an amateur riders event wouldn’t be ideal as she’s a tiny filly. If Natalia Gemelova doesn’t give up the ghost, I think she’ll be closer at the line than she is at halfway, and if you take Dashwood out, she won’t find a weaker race than this. I’ve just got it in my head that in a race like this she is capable of running them down, predicting when that will be is the hard part, but she’s had a run now, is in better hands and at 33/1 the chance is worth taking.
3:20
The second division and again i’m going for the one at the bottom of the weights, another four year old filly, this time MARSH’S GIFT. This one actually started with Ron Barr, then went to Michael Smith and has been with Colin Teague for a few runs now. She is similar to Charity Fair in running style, but she has had experience of the track, running three times here at the back end of last year. The first time in a handicap over 6f, in which she was eyecatching, making a lot of headway after a slow start and getting outpaced. The other two starts were in maidens and she was predictably outclassed, although on her last run she did again show a little ability. At both Thirsk and Beverley last season she hinted that a small race may come her way, and I think this is her trip. This is probably the stronger of the two divisions, and she hasn’t run for 160 days, so again she is very speculative, but she is also 33/1, and I would kick myself if she popped up today, without having had a very small wager.
2:45 – Charity Fair – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 (various, bog)
3:20 – Marsh’s Gift – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 (various, bog)Cheers Fitzer, Tuffers i’d probably make more money spending an hour in a goldmine than with my head buried in the form! and Yorkie I didn’t do the double, i rarely do multiples, but it was still a good day!
It goes without saying yesterday was a good one, but I won’t bore you, or allow myself to wallow in it for long. Given that the first selection refused (it was always a possibility) and that Emerald Glade looked like she’d never seen a hurdle before, I was just happy when Doctor Parkes won. Spanish Bounty was strongly supported before the off, and possibly the stable agreed with me that he was very well treated! Two horses with fair ratings, not my usual modus operandi, but it was a Monday!
Total P/L +233.79
PONTEFRACT
3:40
TORRAN SOUND is 4lb out of the handicap in this 2m5f marathon, but odds of 20/1 more than reflect that and he is worth chancing. It was a poor maiden handicap he won at Chepstow, but that was over 2m2f, and as he stayed that far as a three year old, I don’t have any concerns about him lasting home here. Luke Morris put up 2lb over that day, and racing from 4lb wrong here he is effectively racing off a 9lb higher mark. He and Cubism pulled a long way clear on that occasion and I don’t think his task is insurmountable, given that four year olds get a 6lb allowance in this, which could be deemed rather generous, and Ryan Powell takes off 5lb. He ran well over this trip at Huntingdon over hurdles on soft ground, but was disappointing last time over 3m at Exeter, fading late on. He pulled far too hard during that race, something he is unlikely to do here as Dan Buoy is unlikely to be hanging around. Descaro is obviously still on an upward curve and Terenzium is looking well treated at the moment, but the majority of these are very exposed and there might be just a bit more to come from Torran Sound over this marathon trip, for whom the ground isn’t a issue either.
4:40
This is pretty competitive, with the unexposed Private Joke and Hail Bold Chief who kept improving last season being obvious contenders. RALEIGH QUAY has ran well here a couple of times before and was a little eyecatching over the sharp 7f at Thirsk last time. A return to 1m at this track will be much more suitable for him, and although still 3lb than when he won last summer, he is now 3lb lower than when he finished runner up here in September. He does like to run past horses, tactics which can get you into trouble around here, especially on the turn into the straight. Kelly Harrison has never ridden him before, but I can see him going well for her and Aussie Blue shold ensure a good gallop. The yard had a winner over hurdles the other day, and 14’s looks a fair price in what is, as i’ve already said, a fairly competitive handicap.
3:40 – Torran Sound – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, bog, or 18’s with Betfred, bog)
4:40 – Raleigh Quay – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various, bog)FONTWELL
3:20
King Kasyapa is making the market for everything else in this race, and I’m taking him on by laying him and backing HEREDITARY. The Peter Bowen horse does look well in based on his Wincanton effort, if that truly does herald a return to form of two seasons ago. Personally I think backing a horse with his overall profile at around 6/4 is madness in a race like this, and whilst he is the most likely winner, I was thinking in terms of 5/2, so he has to be a lay. He was beaten at Wincanton by Flying Award who had won the time before and it’s fair form for the grade, but less than twelve lengths seperated the first five, and thats only because a few faded at the death.
Hereditary himself has comeback from a long layoff this season, and not yet with the same degree of success, but his run here in March wasn’t without promise and if he can build a little more on that down another 5lb, in this weaker race he is no forlorn hope. Both his career victories have been at this track, over 2m2f, but this trip seems more appropriate these days, and he was runner up over C&D in October 2009 on good/good to firm ground. He clearly needed the outing at Folkestone in February, but as I said, his run here over 2m4f last month wasn’t too bad, he stayed on having got outpaced that day in a slightly stronger race, won by I Can Run Can You. Forget his run on the flat last time in an apprentice race, he was out the back over 1m4f and was badly hampered before the turn in, and just never got into the race. He’s now had three runs back from his break, so can’t have any excuses on account of fitness and from this mark, at this favourite venue, over a suitable trip, he is worth backing at 25’s (33’s was around earlier).3:20 – Hereditary – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Hills, bog, or Corals, Blue Sq, would accept 20’s)
A small profit over the weekend, and onto another Monday and hopefully it will also provide a profit. Next Monday is a bank holiday with 8 meetings in the UK, it might be that my write ups are a little shorter that day. I’ll try and keep the blog updated this week, but with the sales tomorrow, Epsom on Wednesday and Wincanton Thursday it will probably be random updates at strange times!
I’ve got four for Monday(one at each meeting) two of the races aren’t priced up at the moment, and I would advise waiting until the morning for those rather than taking what are likely to be shorter prices on the exchanges this evening.
Total P/L +190.04
TOWCESTER
2:10
I’m sure this one will raise a few eyebrows, but nothing ventured…………and whilst you can look silly picking a horse like this, I think the chance is worth taking on ORPEN BID, a maiden with an attitude problem, sound like anyone you know? She clearly has some mental issues, but I also think she has a bit more ability than her current rating of 67 implies, and one day I think it will all come together for her. She may get some confidence (if she starts this time!) from the fact that they will be going half a stride slower than she’s used to, having raced over shorter trips, and that may grow throughout the race as several of these are liking to be struggling from some way out. Her best effort to date was on the flat in a 1m3f claimer at Hamilton last summer, where on unfavourable terms with most of her rivals she finished second behing the clear winner Graceful Descent. She followed that up with a solid effort in mid-division back in handicap company. She has two hurdling efforts to her name that suggest a small race could be within her compass. The first of those was at Hexham last June, after nearly a year off she made most of the running until fading late on behind the useful mare Dorabelle. That undoubtedly flatters her, but it still showed some ability is there. More recently at Sedgefield in January she travelled nicely until the second last where she was tapped for toe and finished up in seventh, beaten ten lengths off a 4lb higher mark. Providing she starts ok, I can just see her travelling and travelling, whilst others are struggling, and I just wonder if she will enjoy herself more going that bit slower. I think she would stay 2m4f on a conventional track, she’s not guaranteed to get the trip here, but she must have a fair chance of doing so on the ground and with horses like Earl Of Thomond and Tavalu at the head of the market, I do think she is worth risking, price permitting of course.
2:10 – Orpen Bid – 0.75pt each way at 22/1 or better (should get this and a little more hopefully, possibly 33’s)
Just a quick word on Jolly Boys Outing who runs in the 3:40. I think he is capable of winning from his revised mark, and this race isn’t any better than the one he won. My main concern would be that he isn’t the type who you could rely on to put two good runs together, but I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if he went in again.
EXETER
2:30
A novices selling hurdle that won’t take much winning. Rhyton is a moody/unreliable customer and you take a short price about him at your peril. Jewellery is perhaps the one most likely to run her race, as she’s been consistent of late, but ideally she would like further, although she may just get away with it in this weak field. Rolanta showed a bit more last time at Taunton, she was well backed last week and got her own way up front, but even so she faded tamely late on, and she has shown nothing to convince me that she is one to side with over this longer trip on a more galloping track. EMERALD GLADE improved quite a bit on the flat last summer, and was only sold for a modest 5,500 guineas in the autumn, which looks cheap, although it could suggest a problem. She made her hurdling debut recently in a novice event for mares at Ludlow, and despite a couple of sloppy jumps, she fared well until turning in, at which point she weakened tamely. She may have needed that run to put her spot on for this, and this 2f shorter trip should also help her cause. The race at Ludlow was much stronger, and it was encouraging in the context of this race to see her travel well for the majority of the contest. Hopefully her hurdling will have improved for that and the only question on my mind is whether to back her to win or each way. I’ve reached the conclusion that it’s very difficult to see her out the frame and hopefully she’ll be available at an each way bet to nothing price.
2:30 – Emerald Glade – 2pts each way at 4/1 or better (i’m willing to accept a small loss on the place part, although 5’s may well be available anyway, in which case that won’t apply)
REDCAR
4:20
Lucky Parkes was one of my favourite racemares growing up, and the family as a whole are one of the best in the sprinting business, but it’s not because of any sentiment that i’m backing DOCTOR PARKES in this. Things just didn’t quite go his way last season, but he was most consistent throughout and showed he is capable of winning off this mark. He ran well on his racecourse debut in 2008, won on debut in 09 and ran well last year first time out, and would have been closer at Chester with a clearer run. Forget his effort at Pontefract over this 6f trip last year, that clearly was not his running, he has shown on his other couple of attempts that this trip is within his compass, and actually this easy 6f may well suit better than 5f these days. He goes well for Robert Winston, and Eric Alston had a first time out winner in King Of Eden at Doncaster recently. Red Cape should give him a good toe into the race, and double figure prices look very fair, Dark Lane is the obvious main danger.
4:20 – Doctor Parkes – 1.5pt each way at 11/1 (VC, 10’s with Hill’s/B365 acceptable bog)
WINDSOR
6:50
SPANISH BOUNTY started off last season off a mark of 90, and this time around he starts off 75, but to my eye he showed enough last season to be of interest in this. His attitude isn’t the best at times, that much is obvious, but he did run quite well when sixth at Newbury first time out last season, and as he gets older, he could increasingly become one to catch fresh. He followed that Newbury effort with a fourth at Goodwood over 7f, and although he got the run of the race that day, it was a good effort off a mark of 88. Two more decent runs followed at Chepstow and Newmarket back over 6f. A poor run at Haydock followed, after which he reverted to 5f for the first time since his two year old days, and he just didn’t quite have the necessary pace over the minimum trip. One more poor run ensued at Salisbury, but that was on soft ground (it was quite soft at Haydock too) and I just wonder if the handicapper has been too lenient in dropping him 10lb for two runs on soft ground he doesn’t like, and a run over 5f which is too short. A reproduction of his debut effort last season or one of those in high summer should see him go close in this. The Portman horses have been running well, and it’s the draw which is probably the main concern for one that likes to race prominently. As I said here at the last meeting, bagging the nearside rail isn’t always that big an advantage and Spanish Bounty is experienced enough to race down the centre if need be, although it’s not inconceivable that his pace enable him to cross to near the standside at some point. Taking everything into consideration 28/1 is far too tempting to turn down.
6:50 – Spanish Bounty – 1pt each way at 28/1 (B365, or 25’s Hill’s both bog, anything down to 20’s is acceptable)
Coggy, of course each horse is different in how they prefer to be ridden, but he was being touted as a champion hurdle contender and went off a strong favourite for the supreme. My point is/was how many champions can you name that could only win by being held up until the last possible moment? In my eyes if thats the only way a horse can win, he’s a not champion, and Cue Card clearly isn’t.
Cue Card jumped the last upsides in the Supreme and simply isn’t/wasn’t good enough. Only after the race have people suggested he needs holding onto until the last possible moment, this wasn’t evident before the event, and I don’t think that can be proved after it either.
I can just imagine now if Joe had been 3 lengths down coming to the last, the horse still beaten several lengths at the line, how everyone would have said he’d given him too much to do.Anyone suggesting he can’t get horses settled should go back and review some of his rides on the likes of Kadarann, Le Volfoni and Albuhera, all horses I think he did better than Ruby on. I agree he’s not been riding with quite as much confidence of late, but to suggest he can’t settle a horse is unfair and untrue.
Having seen Cue Card in the flesh, I really do think he was just ahead of the others, some of whom have caught up and in the case of a few have surpassed him. I’d be surprised if he won a grade one from now on.
"And being that in-running is the only way to pull a long term profit"
I think we’ll have to beg to differ on that one RD.
Little or no criticism of Joe Tizzard? You’ve not read half the articles I have then!
Quite how you can say a change of jockey would have made the difference at Cheltenham is beyond me. The horse is clearly not quite as good as most people thought earlier in the season, really good horses don’t need holding up to the last possible moment, and i’m far from convinced thats really the issue anyway looking at his first four starts
I saw him in the paddock at Cheltenham in December before his second to Menorah and there isn’t much body to the horse, he’s lightly/sparely made to my eye and was probably just far more precocious than the majority of his rivals in the festival bumper.
I hope i’m wrong as I like the Tizzards but I don’t really see him going on and improving, unless he does suddenly develop a bit more physically.A sunny Sunday, and two national hunt cards today, although the Stratford card has cut up and nothing really stands out there and it could pay to be a buyer of the Favourite Index.
I’m going to the Brightwell Sales at Ascot tomorrow, and will either put up Monday’s selections tonight or early in the morning.Total P/L +188.79
WETHERBY
2:25
The place to start with this race is the Market Rasen event which was won by Solway Blue, with Hi Ho Silvia in second and Muntami in third. You could have thrown a couple of large duvets over the first nine in that contest, and the complexion of the race changed close home. That form looks far from reliable, and all three of those look plenty short enough in the market. Baraathen probably has more ability than most of these, but doesn’t always look the most willing although he does have Gina Andrews sister Bridget in the plate, and having seen her ride (and win) at Marks Tey recently, I can confirm she is good. Four interested me to varying degrees, Dollar Express is a horse I thought would win a race like this, but the combination of the break, the ground and the jockey all mean today is unlikely to be his day. Waldo Winchester didn’t run too badly at Catterick on his return from a ten month break last month, but he completely downed tools over fences at Uttoxeter recently. He has tumbled down the weights and has gone well here before, but is probably suited to softer ground. I’ve come down on the side of PERTOCELLI and MICKWELL BAY, two completely different types, but both I feel are overpriced. Petrocelli won over 5f on the flat last season, but does stay a mile on the level, and his stamina has been called into question over hurdles. The fact that he finished in front of Baraathen off level weights in a novice hurdle at Kelso in October seems to have been overlooked (in receipt of 10lb here) and I thought he stayed well enough that day in a better race, having been keen early on. He has since run two fair races at both Sedgefield and Catterick and it can pay to side with horses that travel in these sort of races, where with all due respect, a lot of the jockeys aren’t able to get after their mounts for too long. If he settles for his inexperienced pilot he can go well down a further 2lb in the weights on this quick ground which suits.
Mickwell Bay is a different type completely, he hasn’t won over 5f, but he has won a point to point! He’s clearly had all sorts of injury problems, but he was quite well backed in November last year on his first start for this yard, back from another absence. That was over 3m over fences, and he travelled well enough for a large part of that race to suggest he wasn’t a completely lost cause. Now of course they went a fairly modest gallop compared to what they are likely to go here, and whether he quite has the pace for this is a doubt. He does appear to go on faster ground, and if he can keep up for the first half of the race, he should be running on up the straight for Heather Bethell who has impressed with her exploits on Fujin Dancer this season. Back over hurdles off a mark of 70 having made jumping errors last time at Leicester, and having had another few months off, he might just be well handicapped, a statement that you couldn’t apply to many of these who are thoroughly exposed in this type of event.4:40
KNOCK THREE TIMES needs the fast ground she gets here to be seen at her best, and it’s probably best to ignore her last two efforts on good to soft at Catterick, for which she has dropped 8lb, making her a total of 13lb lower than when running here over C&D back in October. As she often does, she hit a flat spot that day, which was compounded by a poor jump, and despite running up the straight she was never competitive. This trip really ought to suit her better than 2m as she stays 2m on the flat well. She should be sharper for those two recent runs at Catterick and is now handicapped to win. My main concern really is the fact that she has so much weight to carry as she’s not the biggest in the world, but that aside she should go well in this company, and unlike most of her rivals, she has at least won a race. Miss Alexander won on Thunder Hawk at Hexham the other day, and whilst she is obviously not of the same calibre as the rest of the jockeys in the race, this mare probably isn’t one who would take too a strong ride, and I wouldn’t be concerned on that score.
Some Catch is obviously of interest off bottom weight having showed a bit of ability here two starts ago, but she ran poorly last time at Sedgefield, and i’d be a bit concerned about the form of the Elliot Cooper yard at present.5:45
TOLEDO GOLD has a lot to find at the weights with Jack The Gent and even more with Red Merlin, but neither of those are terribly reliable and at 25/1 he is worth an each way interest. This should be the fastest ground he has run on over hurdles, and given that he isn’t a strong stayer and that his flat win came on good to firm, this should be to his advantage. He has a couple of fair hurdling runs to his name so far and he should get a good toe into the race from Jack The Gent. George Moore’s horse has been disappointing in recent starts and appears to be going the wrong way, perhaps he’s just had enough for this season now. Red Merlin is obviously a class apart from his rivals, but he did put in a very flat effort earlier in the season at Musselburgh and has enough quirks for the 2/5 to not make any appeal. Little Hercules is open to improvement and made a nice hurdling debut when defeating Master Beau last time. The doubt about him is whether he’ll quite have the required pace to live with a few of these over 2m on this ground, and although it would be folly to rule him out, it would be a great effort were he to win. Toledo Gold has got his work cut out to win, but there wouldn’t be much point in backing him if a place was truly the best you could hope for. It’s hard to see him finishing worse than fourth, and given the niggling doubts about those at the head of the market, the chance is worth taking.
2:25 – Petrocelli – 1pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog) Mickwell Bay – 0.75pt each way at 33/1 (B365, bog, 28’s acceptable)
4:40 – Knock Three Times – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (various, bog)
5:45 – Toledo Gold – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog)I think Anthony has just made a good point. I had a little moan the other day that the majority of threads on here recently were so negative towards the sport. To that end I will try and post a bit more often and start the odd thread that isn’t negative.
I myself drifted away from the forum for quite some time precisely because anytime I did look in, all I ever saw was a few of the posters some eulogise about dominating 99% of the threads.
I do find it a little amusing that the opening poster only appears to have joined a few months ago, having said it was much better in years gone by, but clearly he/she didn’t feel that compelled to get involved themselves.
As has already been said, show me a better forum for racing……
