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Welcome Mark.
Two things could be debatable:
Profit means picking a horse that has better odds than its true chance as long as it wins, long term, at its odds chance. A 10/1 horse you think is a true 8/1 chance is a wasted bet if there are First and Second favourites at odds on and evens.
You mentioned "system". Do you mean "method" as a system has a prescribed recipe for selecting a horse and that is backed whether good or bad value? You need a method approach so that you can compare one horse against another in the race to do what you describe in your post.
Sounds like you’re too scared to take a chance with the 10/1 that should be an 8/1.The always going to be those lower in price and probably just so but we don’t know the result of a race before hand.
Let me give you an example:
1989 Champion Hurdle, I fancied Beech Road at 50/1 because he was regularly beating one of the fancied horses (not the fav who was odds on).
By your logic I should have gone with the odds on fav rather than Beech Road, who won that year, the fav was unplaced.Yes backing the 10/1 you could lose, but you’ll certainly lose in the long run backing favourites.
Well, my "key on a string" did not unlock any winners but I wonder if
Jo
did any better.
Billion,
Are you receiving a positive
YES
and
NO
responce from your pendulum?
If you are, ask the folplowing question:
Should I adhere to Joseph’s procedure for selecting horses to back?
This question seems far too long, hows about just thinking winner.Not to sure about this method, but the are people who claimed to have dreamt the winner. One such case dreamt a mid 1950 grand national winner.
The William hill trophy looks like a tight race to me. Character Building looks the pick although only had one outing finishing nowhere I hope he’s successful tomorrow (just like last year’s meeting ) before going on to Aintree.
I’ve backed him but little brother is convinced tomorrow is a prep for the Grand National and has backed him at 33/1 for that race as a result. Hopefully he’s wrong and tomorrow is the day!
Hopefully you can both be celebrating, you tomorrow and your brother April 10th.
Thought he had a chance last year until they pulled him out.The William hill trophy looks like a tight race to me. Character Building looks the pick although only had one outing finishing nowhere I hope he’s successful tomorrow (just like last year’s meeting ) before going on to Aintree.
I think its another Paul Nichols 1,2,3.
If Denman is at the top of his game he can win it. If not kauto star. The third could be Tricky Trickster.i was interested in vic venturi after his win last week, but when checked the national list, i was put off with his weight he has been alloted
vf
So the only negative is weight, thanks guys. GOOD LUCK!
What are peoples view here on the Dessie Hughes pair (Black Apalachi & Vic Venturi )
Sorry to report that Dick Francis has died aged 89.Got this news from racing post.
Dick rode Devon Loch who had his national in the bag until he tried to jumped the 31st fence on the run-in. Giving the race to ESB.
For me the second best was Amberleigh House when he came storming through to win on the line.Most rewarding was Earth Summit (first ante post winner at 25/1).
Best fairy tale was Aldaniti (even though I didn’t back it.)
All of which would not be possible if not for Lottery in 1839.
Having a bet in the grand national is always risky, even on the day. That said it is usually the best race to go for ante post. You know you want a stayed who can handle big fields. I usually wait until the weights are announced myself as I don’t think anyone but Phil Smith know what the horses really knows what the qualifiers are getting.Hi there, not worked anything out, yet but really keen on Niche Market’s run when he ran in the Hennessy.
Form from Hennessy is working out too with Barbers Shop coming third in King George
Also What A Friend winning the postponed Lexus in Ireland.
Personally I’d be unlikely to bet on these UK AW bumper meetings unless a serious jockey showed up, Nina Carberry, Ruby walsh, Timmy Murphy or one of the other top Irish jockeys
I’d be lookinmg for a un-fashionable trainer, one who’s less likely to be schooling, and I’d want a horse with decent point to point formMe too. Not a fan of All Weather.
I see that AW jump card is seriously be considered
AW jumping was effectively abandoned because of the causalties and my first thought is they are trying to bring it back.However I see that its really a flat card, so would be really an All Weather National hunt flat card or bumper.
Should keep the horses fit and I think many trainers these days use similar material for the gallops these days.
Sounds like you’re too scared to take a chance with the 10/1 that should be an 8/1.
This question seems far too long, hows about just thinking winner.
Sorry to report that Dick Francis has died aged 89.
