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Remittance Man
So my interpretation of form is cliched. Well, forgive me, but I (along with most students of form) will go upon past results and how far certain horses ‘toil’ in behind others. That is how handicap ratings are derived, and how horses obtain official ratings and until you derive a more sophisticated one, I think I’ll just have to accept the fallacies of objective analysis.
Incidentally, the criteria which you state you find helpful e.g. the particular conditions of a race (track, ground, distance, class), I too find very helpful and are very important in determining the outcome of the race.
However, the performance of a particular horse against another (no matter how ordinary or one paced) supercedes these factors, and I therefore will always place this above all other criteria in determining the outcome of a race.
Daniel
Thanks for clarifying the Boss Doyle point. The fact remains that Boss Doyle’s Wetherby win wasn’t the best performance of the season in his optimum division, whereas Valiramix’s was the best performance in his optimum division.
The fact that Valiramix beat The French Furze may not be terribly important in your eyes. However, the distance and comprehensive ease which he accounted for him, relative to the other contenders victories over same, is a major factor. This is precisely the point which I have taken issue with Remittance Man. The fact that he could beat TFF hard held, whereas Landing Light and Ned Kelly couldn’t (ground, track, distance etc. aside) lends me to believe (and obviously the bookmakers) that he should enjoy a higher rating than the afore mentioned and, therefore, he should enjoy a loftier position in the Champion Hurdle market.
Perhaps the Pipe/McCoy factor is imputed into this horses’ price, but I wouldn’t let that fact colour my judgement of the horses chance in the race. Just as I wouldn’t let it influence me if Edward O’Grady, Noel Meade or even Aidan O’Brien trained it. I’m Irish, so you can’t accuse me of being blinkered in this regard. The form is there for all to see in black and white, and it reads pretty favourably.
Just as a footnote Daniel, I note that your Champion Hurdle overround comes to no higher than 85%. If this is the case, you must see something that we have all missed. Would you care to enlighten us??
Daniel
Statements like yours certainly lend credence to the title of this tread. I cannot comprehend how you draw an anlaogy between a horse that has been beaten comprehensivley in his optimum division this season and one that has absolutely crucified his opposition in his optimum division in his only start of the season.
You claim that Valiramix has no right to be that price at the moment, but if you were making a book, who is worthy enough to be placed ahead of him in the market? He laughed at The French Furze (who is a very good yardstick) with Hors La Loi in another parish. Furthermore, with Hors La Loi’s victory in the Kingwell this form is looking a lot more solid.
That places everything bar Istabraq and Landing Light behind him, as he beat The French Furze with arguably more ease than Ned Kelly.
I agree that he is too short (and I don’t think he will win), but only by a point and a half, as I think Landing Light deserves to be ahead of him on what he has achieved this season. The fact of the matter remains that he has put up the best 2 mile performance of the season, and with no doubts over his current well being and fitness, and with so many circulating in relation to the current champion, it is no joke that he occupies second place in the champion hurdle market.
Valid point Daylight cos there is a lot of partisan rubbish out there. Personally, I’ll cheer home an Irish winner at Cham or wherever it wins across the water but I won’t let where the horse is from colour my judgement.
I suppose that the fact these horses are being sent across the water lends many punters to believe that they must be a good thing. There are multiple reasons for Irish trainers sending runners over to England – the singlemost reason probably being the ground.
A lot of the time it is too hard to equate the Irish and English form and therefore I hold fire for the most part. But then again you’ve got to take every invader on its merits and only then assess whether its a viable betting opportunity or not.
It might make u feel better backing a home grown winner on foreign terrain over the enemy but invariably it will make you a lot poorer.
Aidan
I’m not denying that Pipe doesn’t do the same. I know he does, and you are perfectly right in your afore mentioned examples. My original point on this thread seems to have lost its direction, and I’ve reiterated it enough times so I’ll leave it at that.
Glad to hear that you’re fascinated by my example of Idiot’s Venture being overraced. "I don’t see how a horse can be overraced if he continues to win". Well 3 wins from 17 starts in the course of 11 months I wouldn’t call a brilliant strike rate. And what was the upshot of this incredible strike rate? He went lame and was put down.
On the other hand horses like Limestone Lad thrive on racing, and do keep winning which is perfectly acceptable. So no he is not overraced.
I hope this sets your mind at ease Aidan.
Istabraq?? No never heard of that one Aidan.
I was referring to the time when he was only training national hunt horses, and not only 1 good one as is the case nowadays. And yes O’Brien did overrace his horses in a similar means that Pipe does these days, to the detriment of a good horse like Idiot’s Venture. I didn’t say that he does so now – on the contrary.
I seem to be repeating myself, but the main argument I’m trying to make is that I feel Pipe does better with what he has than does O’Brien. I still think O’Brien is a top class trainer.
Johnny Boy
I don’t know what point you’re trying to make, but the answer to you’re question is no, no way in fact, would I send a potential Gold Cup contender to Pipe.
As I have repeatedly emphasised, although no-one seems to be listening, I believe Pipe does better with what he has than O’Brien does with what he has. The issue here isn;t the longetivity of horses shelf life but rather the capability of both Pipe and O’Brien to produce winners with what resources they respectively possess. It’s patently obvious that Pipe trains moderate horses to the point of early burnout. This crime you seem to accuse Pipe of was committed by O’Brien when he trained jumpers, as I have mentioned already.
Why does it have to be fragile Johnny Boy?? Are u saying that all of APOB’s horses are fragile and that he is a master at training them??
How can u draw such an analaogy when he’s never been given the opportunity to train such talented horses. The exact same could have been said of APOB when he was training jumpers.
Any time Pipe has received a top class animal he hasn;t run it into the ground. He has looked after it with great care e.g. Carvills Hill, Cyfor Malta.
My point was that Pipe does better with what he has than does O’Brien. I’ve no affinity or anything against either trainer. It’s just an observation.
Aidan
I am well aware of APOB’s record as a NH trainer and that he performed creditably when he broke the NH record.
My point was, if you bothered to read it, was whether himself and Kinane should be compared as the equal to Pipe and McCoy. I opined that they shouldn’t. How long did he persevere with NH though with moderate NH horses?? Not very long at all. How long has MC Pipe?? As long as I can remember he has been winning sellers in Fakenham during the summer and running up sequences with the most moderate of animals.
I think this is a more commendable achievement than O’Brien winning classics with multi million dollar purchases. Anything that isn’t any use, he doesn’t have to persevere with – thats my point. It gets sold off to Luke Comer or somewhere in Japan.
You obviously have a soft spot for the Ballydoyle team but don’t try and depict that he conquered all before him in the NH sphere, and therefore has nothing to prove in that regard. He did well with ordinary horses but his only good horse, Idiots Venture, he ran into the ground, so I don’t think this puts him on some higher moral ground than Pipe.
I’d hardly call paying $4million for Shah Jehan professional when compared to the paltry sum of £240,000 paid for Magnus Luke (not that I view the latter as value).
Aidan
Although, I would rate Kinane as the top jockey on the flat – there is no way he is held in the same esteem as McCoy over the jumps, and rightly so. And although O’Brien has achieved instantaneous success, he enjoys an unfair advantage vis a vis the quality of horses over his peers (with the notable exception of Godolphin). Pipe, although he has wealthy owners such as Johnson, has in no way got the same financial clout as Ballydoyle to the exclusion of others , and I therefore think his achievements are more laudable than that of O’Brien.
