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Now surely this is not as one sided as it looks, last years runaway Supreme winner ‘Douvan‘ is as short as 4/11 to land the Arkle renewal. There is no doubt that as many of us well know he is a formidable force for team Ricci Rich and Wilie Mullin’s and with coming into this race unbeaten this season which has included taking the scalp of Sizing John in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase without going through the gears. He looked even better when landing the Irish equivalant by fifteen lengths, and even though Ruby had to get after him three out he asserted comfortably away from his two rivals. His two Graded wins this season have seen a disappointment of opposition taking him on, with now a rating of 161 and still reasonably young at six you would of thought there was more to come.
So like most of us we are scratching our heads to find what is going to be the value bet in the race, his closest rival in the market is Nicky Henderson’s ‘Vaniteux‘ who won the Grade 2 Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster when beating Harry Whittington’s Arzal by three and a quarter lengths when in receipt of four pound. Willie Mullin’s Shaneshill never put in a perfomance when sent off the 11/8fav for the race and finished a tired and weary ten lengths further behind Arzal. His second at Kempton reads well when runner up to Gary Moore’s Ar Mad who has gone on to win well at Plumpton two weeks ago. This will be Vaniteux’s third visit to the festival after finishing third to Vautour in the Supreme Novices, but disappointed last year when coming in last of eight in the Champion Hurdle which was won that day by this years missing Champion Faugheen.
Vaniteux would not want for a wet March coming into this race with most of his best performances coming on quicker ground, but to have the guns to beat Douvan and his odds of 5/1 he does not make any appeal for me. The market has been strengthening up over th past two weeks with many being backed against the odds on Douvan especially Shaneshill who is 12s in from 33s and Sizing John who is also subject to support from 20s into 12s, but one that caught my eye at Punchestown back in October was Gigginstown’s ‘THE GAME CHANGER‘ who represents trainer Gordon Elliott. Over the past six renewals home soil have taken charge of this race leading 4-2, Willie Mullin’s Un De Sceaux stopped a five timer for British trainers last year and with Elliott looking to gain his first success in the race I would not be surprised to see a big run from the seven year old this year. His only run at the festival came last season when only managing to finish ninth to Wicklow Brave in the County Hurdle.
Since diverting to the larger obstacles he has been in his element recording six wins from eight starts and finishing runner up in his other two. His two defeats came at Wexford and Galway, the later run saw him finish runner up to Rock The World of Jessica Harrington in the Grade 3 Ballybrit Novices Hurdle going down by two lengths when giving 7lb to the eventual winner. Since dropping back to two miles he has been 1-1 which saw him land the Grade 3 Kilbegnet Novices Chase at Roscommon to go on and land the Grade 3 Like-A Butterfly Novices Hurdle at Tipperary when reversing the form with Rock The World when stepped up to two and a half miles. Dropping back to two miles and the strong possibility of quick ground on the day should suit him and to see him out of the top three would be very surprising.
The best of the British contenders apart from Vaniteux looks to be Philip Hobbs ‘GARDE LA VICTOIRE‘ who looks very over priced despite also being nibbled in the market. The seven year old beat the likes of Bristol De Mai on chase debut when routing him by seven lengths, as we now know the runner up has since gone on to land the Grade 2 Altcar Novices Chase at Haydock by thirty two lengths and went on to exploit his mark of 151 when landing the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown by six lengths and still looks well in on his current mark of just 153 for the future. His second run came here over course and distance when beating Fox Norton by two and a half lengths in the Arkle trial and even though he ran very keen under Dicky Johnson he done the job well.
His first run of 2016 came at Ludlow which looked a perfect opportunity to see how he had come on over the winter, again we saw no chinks in his armour when winning by five lengths over Doctor Harper who has gone on to frank the form at Leicester at the back end of January. His only run at the festival saw him finish a long way down the field to Vautour in the Supreme Novices last year, but if he puts a good round of jumping in and brings his Bristol De Mai form to the race then there is no reason why he should not be thereabouts, only concern would be the ground for him as he would not want to quick even though his Cheltenham win was on good to soft, his best runs to date have been in soft to heavy ground, never-less well worth a few quid each way.
THE GAME CHANGER : 1pt Each Way @ 20/1 (William Hill)
GARDE LA VICTOIRE : 1pt Each Way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)Darren P Goodbody
Sorry Bigtips you are correct and has been changed
Many thanks for spotting that
Darren P Goodbody
Over the past decade I have made the Wednesday and the Cheltenham bumper my main day of appearing at the meeting, its a race that I have enjoyed watching for future novices when making that transition to hurdles. Sadly this year will be the first time I will miss the meeting since 2005. I was asked by quiet a few people on twitter if I would be previewing the race this year even though I would not be attending in person.
I thought it would be rude not to and over the past couple of days I have been closely looking into the race from a couple of different angles and it has opened my eyes wide to find the results are quite profound when turning up the winner of the race. Well i better crack on then and bring in the four horses I feel should be feared in the race in March.
AURILLAC (25/1)
Rebecca Curtis’s six year old has already gone the novice hurdling route when finishing third to Nicky Henderson’s Pougne Bobbi at Chepstow, even though he was fourteen lengths off the front pair, he was probably taking on a couple of useful types on debut. He had already ran within two lengths to the heavily gambled for this race Ballyandy over course and distance around this sphere.
It is not guarantee that he will be diverted back to the level which is usually unlikely in this race, but the bumper he won over course and distance when I thought taking the scalp of a nice looking John Ferguson recruit in High Bridge when off level weights has been a useful bumper ,that has gone on to win this race which Moon Racer came out of last year, even the runner up Arabic History has gone on to handle a winning debut in the novice ranks after finishing runner up to Definitly Red in the Listed bumper later that year at the November meeting. It is difficult decision to see if they now keep him around the novice hurdling ranks, but if he did step back in he can seriously be considered.
BACARDY’S (20/1)
He is just one of thirteen runners for Willie Mullins to currently have standing in this. The son of Coastal Path won with something in hand at Leopardstown when fending off Grotesque by half a length. What has made me look more into that form is the fact the way he showed some impressive battling qualities to win that day. Winners of this bumper over the past few years have been tested to come off the bridle and to see what they have in the locker and attitude,
Bacardy did exactly that, he looked beaten coming into the final furlong and was even hampered in the process losing him another length, but he showed a gutsy attitude that will fit Cheltenham when push comes to shove up the Prestbury hill. He thought all the way to the line that day and coming into the final fifty yards he was always looked on top at the finish.
He really don’d fit the profile of a Champion Bumper winner being by Prix De Barbeville winning sire Coastal Path out of placed bumper mare Oasice, but what he does have is stamina from both sides of the family with the sire winning most of his races over two miles, but as I was saying about past winners, that bumper is well related which Silver Concorde won the same bumper before winning at Cheltenham.
HIGH BRIDGE (20/1)
This is a horse I have been screaming about for months, ever since when he beat Templeross of Nigel Twiston-Davies at Huntingdon by what looked a better eye catching than the just under four lengths suggests. The runner up did not take too long to get into the winning enclosure himself. The fourth that day was Mr Banks who once more has been subject of falling into another useful bumper when behind the likes of Philip Hobbs Westend Story who is a big price for this race.
I thought that run was smooth progress after he lost to Aurillac, but he looked even better when beating Peter Niven’s well thought of Atomix at Catterick a month later, he had improved massively to win by thirteen lengths, and with the third of Philip Hobbs Shambougg has franked that form as has Atomix it is looking strong form coming into the bumper this year which despite all the hype over Aspen Colorado and Ballyandy being gambled from 20/1 in to 8/1 after landing the Listed Newbury bumper back on the 13th February.
All of High Bridge’s runs around this sphere have been behind very good opposition which has also included the likes of OK Corral, he is another one that has been nibbled a bit with the firm Ladbrokes who have gone 33/1 into 16s, but is generally around the 20/1 market which if turning up I thought was great value in a race this year that looks so open.
AVELLINO (33/1)
He represents the Irish flag here from the Dermot McLaughlin stables whom i feel on form has a live outside chance, His form is solid coming into this race, lets not forget last year when the likes of Shanshill and Bellshill were expected to be in the mix and failed and with the nearest Irish contender being Dermot Weld’s Vigil, the Mullins horses did not figure.There is no reason though why a smaller unit cannot have a contender here.
Avellino finished behind Willie Mullin’s Lucky Pass on debut under rules and he was not far off with only two and a half lengths separating the front three which included Any Drama who went on to win at Thurles back in January. Lucky Pass is entered in the race and is more superior in the market, but there have been rumours that Lucky Pass might not be turning up in this years bumper and is destined to go hurdling.
He came out and proved his 40/1 odds against Lucky Pass was not fluke when winning at Down Royal on boxing day when beating Gordon Elliott’s Annihilate which is not working out to be a hot bumper, even so the winner Avellino was sent off as the 2/1jf that day and the market got it right with the joint favourites holding the top two spots in a race that can be over looked for talent.
Its the Fairyhouse win that makes a lot of appeal for me when beating Freeway Space who was surprisingly beaten yesterday by half a length, It’s not another hot bumper,but it has been a bumper that has produced a champion in Champagne Fever. Lets not forget Willie Mullin’s has won three of the past eight renewals of this race which has included two of the past four renewals with Champagne Fever and Briar Hill with the former going on the following year to land the Supreme Novices.
Since the no race back in 2001 the Irish have stole this race away from home soil returning a whopping 71% into the winning enclosure. over the past six seasons it is all square at three a piece and if i was going to say Ireland can land another win I just think it could come from a non Mullin’s contender.
AVELLINO : 1pt Each Way @ 33/1 (BET365)
HIGH BRIDGE : 1pt Each Way @ 20/1 (BET365)
BACARDY’S : 1pt Each Way @ 20/1 (BET365)
Darren P Goodbody
Hasn’t she been doing a lot of her racing in France now, not seen many interviews of her to be honest, i think the last one on ATR i saw when she talked down one of her horses when interviewed, i can vaguely remember her quote ‘He has not got a chance taking on far superior horses today’ The horse won at 33/1, re-interview ‘He did that nicely don’t you think, well worth the trip’ but she rambled on and the interviewer had to make an excuse to go to another camera
Darren P Goodbody
A few others I’d be keen to hear news of are:
Carruthers
Cedre Bleu
Charingworth
Get Me Out Of Here
Riverside Theatre
Western WarhorseCharingworth has probably been retired now at the age of 13, likewise with Carruthers who is also 13, believe Sarah now trains him
Darren P Goodbody
Western Warhorse I believe is still being slowly nursed back from his injury after his Aintree run, the tendon is taking longer to heal, but is on the mend.
Darren P Goodbody
17.10 NAAS
TRAMLOUGH BOY
Noel Meade’s five year old son of Central Park diverts back to the level after a creditable run over hurdles when fourth to Au Quart De Tour at Gowran Park. The third from the race Automated as gone on to land a useful maiden hurdle at Navan when beating 122 rated hurdler Stuccodor.
His debut run under rules came on this circuit when beating Willie Mullins Blow by Blow by the shortest of margins, it is turning out to be a useful bumper with the runner up going on to frank that form at Navan on Valentines Day when holding the form with Jessica Harrington’s Jett. The third Jack Dillinger was out gunned by a very nice bumper horse in Village Mystic of Willie Mullins who is 16/1 for this years Champion Bumper.
His closest market rival will be Willie Mullin’s Avenir D’ Une Vie who won around this sphere at Navan when beating Gordon Elliott’s Delegate by two and three quarter lengths. The form of the runner up is not as strong and has been beaten very easily over the hurdle ranks as has the third Knockraha King.
One that could be open to much improvement is Edward Hales Virtual Insanity who could run out his current odds of 33/1. The son of Lockinge Stakes winning sire Virtual ran seventh on debut here at Naas when behind Ballela Boy. The winner has gone on to finish third to Jessica Harrington’s New to this Town who beat Avenir D ‘Une Vie that day. My assumption is that Noel Meade’s entry here is showing more promise and would not put anyone off having a small ew on Virtual Insanity at big odds.
TRAMLOUGH BOY : 3pt Win @ 6/4 BOG
Virtual Insanity : 1/2pt Each Way @ 33/1 BOGBe Lucky
Darren P Goodbody
SANDOWN ROUND ROBIN
13.40 : LOCHNAGAR @ 7/2 BOG
14.10 : THE CLOCK LEARY @ 10/1 BOG
16.20 : LOOSE CHIPS @ 7/1 BOG£1 EW @ £20.00 WIN RETURNS £708.52 – PLACE RETURN £44.81
Darren P Goodbody
SANDOWN
13.40
Lochnagar 130
Aston Cantlow 125
Franciscan 12514.10
The Clock Leary 129
Helium 12214.45
Actinpieces 134
Jessber’s Dream 131
Tara Flow 13115.20
Coward’s Close 128
Bob Tucker 12616.20
Loose Chips 139
Beg To Differ 13116.50
Jajamcool 122
One Style 118Darren P Goodbody
CLONMEL WIN PATENT
14.00 – De Plotting Shed @ 8/15 BOG
15.45 – Churchfield Champ @ 9/1 BOG
16.20 – Fairymount Boy @ 12/1 BOG£2 Win Patent will return £778.27
Darren P Goodbody
CLONMEL
13.30
Cliffside Park 140
Urano 13914.00
De Plotting Shed 129
Presenting Oscar 12315.45
Churchfield Champ 130
Mr Eko 11016.20
Fairymount Boy 98
Orah Hall 8816.55
Iconic Image 103
Sliabh Donn 99Darren P Goodbody
FONTWELL TREBLE
14.20 : Alcala @ 4/5 BOG
15.30 : Chef D Oeuvre @ 1/3 BOG
16.05 : Showboater @ 4/5 BOG£50 Winning Treble returns : £216:00
Darren P Goodbody
FONTWELL
14.20
Alcala 129
The Fresh Prince 11314.55
Agincourt Reef 113
Venetian Lad 11215.30
Chef D Oeuvre 142
In The Hold 12316.05
Showboater 104
16.40
Eco Warrior 116
Rocknrobin 105Darren P Goodbody
EXETER TREBLE AND PATENT
14.10 – Rolling Dylan @ 6/4 BOG
14.40 – Politologue @ 3/1 BOG
15.10 – Fingal Bay @ 2/1 BOG
2pt Treble & 2pt Win PatentDarren P Goodbody
EXETER
14.10
Rolling Dylan 125
Brelan D’AS 10514.40
Politologue 146
Buveur D’Air 12315.10
The Romford Pele 157
Dell Arca 14015.40
Restless Harry 131
Shotavodka 131
Golden Chieftain 12616.10
Fingal Bay 157
Masters Hill 148
Milansbar 13816.40
Aso 158
Potter’s Cross 132Darren P Goodbody
LINGFIELD PATENT
COMMUNICATOR – 11/2 (BOG)
CAPE ROSSO – 12/1 (BOG)
SAND BY ME – 14/1 (BOG)£1 EW PATENT
Darren P Goodbody
LINGFIELD
13.25
Communicator 92
Alshan Fajer 8514.00
Blacklister 78 (1st @ 6/4)
Ilzam 7514.35
Perfect Alchemy 74 (1st @ 9/4)
First Experience 7215.10
Aguerooo 84 (1st @ 5/1)
Kinglsey Klarion 8015.45
Cape Rosso 103
Starboard 9816.20
Multitask 80
Quintus Cerialis 75
Desert Strike 7516.50
Sand By Me 91
Robina 77Darren P Goodbody
