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There is only one rule in how to be a successful gambler.
VALUE IS EVERYTHING
ie
Know prices as percentages and percentages as prices.Be good at evaluating form.
A 1/3 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 75% chance of winning. A 16/1 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 6% chance.
Ginger you are absolutely about VALUE but have’nt you over-simplified ? You know it can’t be everything although it plays an essential part,a VERY BIG essential part. All of the recent posters in the last couple of days are right of course which illustrates the importance of listening to opinion and then arriving at your own.I start trying to find the value in eliminating the favourite as poor value if there are other factors which suggest that other runners may represent better value. When you reluctantly turn back to the favourite because you have eliminated the others for various reasons then you decide if there is any real value there.
I’m sure you all know already….it is that in-built computer we all have which tells us if the forecast price is better or worse than the price you would assess yourself. Even then if it is better you may wish to avoid it because it is a tad too generous. I apologise if old John appears to be teaching his grandma how to suck eggs but I’m just prattling on because it shows how many diverse opinions there are in pursuit of one common cause. I would put the process of elimination very very highly in the process of arriving at VALUE ! Elimination has served me well over the years….I once used this to very real effect in finding the Lincoln Winner in the mid 70’s….it was the fittest horse in the race,one of the lightweights in heavy conditions forecast days before the race (the only horse sure to act on the heavy)
and a truly crazy price based on actual soft ground form.
I took 200-1 and the price steadily shrank as the rain continued to fall, and in the race itself it never had an opponent to throw down a challenge. It was a stand-out and the name was Southwark Star. I did the same thing
when King Con won the Scottish National at 100-1 !Hi discretedata
I’m impressed with the figures you have produced and a lot of work must go into this.It is certainly a good guide and work like this allied to the law of averages must surely be a big help in forecasting when a jockey or trainer is due or overdue. I can see it being invaluable in deciding which jockeys to follow after a lean spell (not many good riders have bad streaks which go on and on and I imagine 20-30 rides without a winner is exceptional as opposed to normal). Thank you very much…I shall watch your posts with interest.Day 2 Report.
G.Lee 2 losing rides
A.Coleman 2 losing rides (injured after 2.55 race)
A.McCoy I losing rideG.Lee now moves on to 2 point stake for next 3 rides.
A.McCoy has 2 remaining rides at 1 point stake.
A.Coleman has 1 remaining ride at 1 point stake.
If A Coleman is ruled out because of injury ( or indeed any of our jockeys) I shall use R.Johnson as first substituteif and when this occurs.
2 points profit are carried forward to Day 3Especially for my friends in Ward 7. I have goofed on Day I because discretdata correctly pointed out that a G.Lee ride started at 9-1, not the paper price of 3-1.
therefore the day 1 profit is only 7 points !
must try harder ! As i said to my GP I can’t sleep, I must be suffering amnesia. He said’that’s insomnia’….I said I’m sorry I forgot.Absolutely right Mike.What is more impotant is your concept of value…I’m afraid I sometimes forget that there are intelligent people out there and get a bit too indignant…but then again I’m afraid I’m virtually saddled with the typical betting shop idiot who wouldn’t have a clue what either of us were talking about. My comments were really about the typical guy who rushes in on a Saturday morning, pulls out a £50 to back a 4-5 chance in the blind belief that he’s going to pay for his afternoon drinking session because it’s odds on and certain to win…OH DEAR !
Do we have to put the same arguements in two threads in two sections?
Hennessey
Big race section.Did I miss something Ginger ? Was there an earlier post which I failed to read ? I would dearly like to see Denman win but with the weight concession and so many runners to try to take him on, he will be susceptible to the final challengers. Even Arkle could not concede impossible amounts of weight to the likes of Dormant and Stalbridge Colonist etc.
Just a humble nobody punter with a love of the sport and fair play,
Nothing wrong with that John this thread is basically Black and White, agree or disagree that its Ok for AP MCCoy to throw his dummy out and refuse to speak to the best racing programme screened! My opinion is quite clear,i love to see spoilt brats fall flat on their A"se and Denman did a perfect job! Their are far more controversial threads than this one,dont involve yourself in those if it puts the wind up you! Keep posting.i like your originality!
I could not agree more TAPK but what I’m finding unpalatable is not the points of view but the venom this has generated.It seems well OTT in view of the lack of interest by owner,trainer or the powers that be. We certainly refer to AP in the Shakesperian quote ‘methinks he doth protest too much’.On the contrary he seems to be holding his own counsel on this and everyone else is getting up tight. I just don’t understand why Lydia Hislop has burned her bridges and gone in so lacking in tact and diplomacy. The only time I ever sat on a horse (an ex-racehorse called Sticky Business) he immediately dumped me in a muddy field) so I would be the last to criticise any jockey let alone AP ( i was 12 at the time ). It seems that we are not going to get beyond the 2 camps in these dugouts so perhaps we shall have to say vive le difference and leave it at that.
AP due an 8/1+ winner as he’s currently on a losing run of 60!
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEFYWlRNR3g0cUxTWm80cTlDU2E5MGc&hl=en&authkey=CKXG1KEH#gid=0
Hi discreditedata
Hope you can help me…I’m getting a bit old to understand spreadsheets but I had a look at this because I hadn’t realised that such figures were available. I can see roughly what the figures represent but I’m not too sure what are figures E,F and G . Are these just for AP’s rides and are others available ? Hope I’m not putting you to too much trouble. I enjoy playing around with numbers and what I’m trying to prove is that almost any system can work and achieve a regular modest return provided you get the maths right.oldjohn69
Wetherby 2.25 Ibn Hiyyan Graham Lee 5th SP 9/1
Did you miss this one?
Despite your offputting nom de plume discreditadata many thanks for pointing this out. I had indeed missed this one or not looked properly as it was only 3-1 in the morning paper. So I shall reduce the day one profit to 7 points and the jockey with only 2 lives left at a one point stake….no point in doing a trial unless you get it spot on so many thanks.
NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat Hereford Utd anyone??
Mike
Yes Mike,quite right but you won’t get 10/11 for that will you ? Although correct your observation is a little out of context when it comes to horses which are only flesh and blood,and surely the road to the poor house for the average betting shop punter. As for odds on I have a small 5 timer on tonights footie which incudes Man U,and Spurs who are odds against.
Early horse; eohippus or something like that? If it’s correct then it, sadly, means that my long term memory is good even though my short term memory [have I just had a cup of tea, better see if any of the mugs feel warm] is non existent. Had a book from London Zoo when I was a child, that showed things like early mammals and [my favourite] an ancestor of the whale that used to live up trees. oldjohn would be proud of this thread..we’ve been to the seaside with it twice so far…..
Hello again moe ! The last time I saw him race on TV I thought he had a touch of grey in his tail….soon will be….tempus fugit, and I should know mo !
Wallace….your list of variables is incomplete by a long way. I have known that it is a very tough game ever since I started 50 years ago and I believe the game was a great deal more shady in those days. May I suggest that you try to re-assess where you may be going wrong.
For example why do people back favourites when only 30-35% of favs win at any track.This means that you have to average an SP of around 6-4 just to break even, or put another way you may think that you are doing well to select 3 winners out of ten selections…those winners need to be at an average of 5-2 to produce the same return overall as 11-10. are you betting too short ? Are you not putting enough work in to spot winners at a VFM price. VFM is surely one of the most important elements in betting. Other factors high on the list are the going (the softer it gets the fewer are the runners with real chances), also the faster it gets applies to many horses),the draw,the trainers in form,etc etc. When I’m asked about VFM I compare 2 horses who have raced together before. HORSE A is favourite having previously beaten Horse B comprehensively so the SP is going to be a relevant factor. If Horse B is now 12-1 are there any factors which might bring them closer together ? Different distance,draw,going,pace of the race,and numerous other things,including the inference to be drawn from the trainer having another go at a horse which appears to be superior. In the end your skills improve and you get the satisfaction of spotting big priced winners and a real buzz from being on a more level playing field. I’m not trying to sound superior…only trying to help (which is why I’m half way through writing a book).
My first 2 rules are NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON.
Also NEVER sit in a betting shop all afternoon – IT IS A HUGE NO-NO ! Finally you may increase your enjoyment and at least reduce your losses by trying placepots in small unit perms….it changed my success rate enormously.thanks for your support guys especially my fellow TV widower Oldjohn! Oneeye can you cut and paste a sentence out of these words? – people nice be to old git miserable
Old john …him no miserable….no git. Him balanced,fair,knowledgeable and now furious ! White man speak with forked tongue ….old john preparing for pow-wow whilst jungle war drums drumming,no smokum pipe of peace. Am completely up totem pole now ! Going to join wife watching Linford prepare lunch box…Get me out of here has already caused enough trouble on post about Liddle Cowslip !
Ta very much Nathan and Billion ? I take it from ‘ward 7’that I am entering the world which provides early admission to the nuthouse. By the way my age is only a number….I am very on the ball mentally even with 2 artificial knees and only 9 toes as from a fortnight ago.
Im omitted Ruby because he is out for a while and Barry Gheraty because he tends to ride at only the bigger meetings in the UK. Anyway Im hoping that this system might work with the majority of good jockeys riding several times per week. As for the staking plan I kind of plucked this out of the air because based on the minimum SP of 8-1 I was trying to find a plan which would make a profit given that even this one only maintains that possibility for 15 rides….but that is quite a lot considering that there will be a lot of rides which are ‘NO BET’ being below 8-1. For example how many rides will AP get before he is on an 8-1 shot or higher ? I hope that this is a little clearer because I do appreciate that my mind knows what I’m saying but yours might be asking ‘what the hell is he talking about?’. I hope all will become clear in due course.
Incidentally I believe that is perfectly possible to adapt this system in other ways. For example trainers instead of jockeys,or racecard numbers even….it doesn’t matter as long as the minimum price is similar and the staking plan is correct. See you all in solitary guys….now that is double dutch….solitary is on your own…..see you when I get out of solitary !To Armchair Jockey (and quite e few others). I am amazed at the amount of vitriolic comment being aimed at AP.
Is this what Ms Hislop hoped would happen ? Aim at a big enough scalp and bask in the reflected glory of your naive supporters ? So Armchair or can I just call you R ?
If I am the only one who doesn’t know what happened why is it impossible to get a blow by blow account of the facts,ad verbatim as it were ? What is really getting up my nose here is that Ms Hislop has loaded the gun and left everyone else to fire the bullets and to my mind that is typical of the great majority of so-called journalists. Are you all in need of going to confession and declare that you are all anti AP because you got badly burned fingers on this nag,well-backed and well fancied,and ridden by the champion jockey ? Let us get this into perspective…every day of the week horses get poor rides or do not produce their normal standard of form by a long long way. On that basis the stewards should be in action many more times more than they are,and many more jockeys would be referred to the Jockey club. Yet,as I understand it,this race produced no action of any kind,no inquiry,and a big nothing from anyone in racing but the furore created by one journalist. This one race seems to have propelled our champion jockey into the Bradley and Fallon arena.
Has anyone considered that the horse might have had a pain somewhere or was going down with a virus? Horses are only human ! So why are we (the racing public) not demanding an investigation by the powers that be ? I would think it appropriate in the interests of the sport for an announcement (at the least) to be forthcoming on the matter,and for the owner and trainer to throw some light on the subject. Personally, win or lose,I have never in more than 50 years ‘talked through my pocket’.Dear
oldjohn66
Why not trial it here then we can all see the results as and when they race.
I am quite fascinated by your rejection of systems and can only think there is a little love/hate going on.
Ok billion….I’m up for a little egg on my face although I do not think that this is going to be easy.
Even though it may work or indeed fail initially because I suspect that trialling a new system requires a little tampering with and making changes to staking plans etc.
So I shall start tomorrow with 3 jockeys and I will choose A P McCoy,Graham Lee,and Aiden Coleman as from tomorrow,and then another 3 after that. I intend to start with one unit stake for 3 rides at SP of 8-1 or higher,then 2 units for 3 rides,working up to a maximum of 5 units (because a simple calculation shows me that 5 units is the maximum stake at this point where you break even at 8-1. For each jockey you stop at a winner,and replace the jockey reverting to the basic 1 unit stake.
Any rides below 8-1 are a no bet. First selections if any will be on Wednesday,24th November.
