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I’ve only been a RF member for a few weeks and have posted regularly on the Horse Racing site. This is the first time I’ve looked at the Systems postings but so far I have found little to change the beliefs I have held for more than 30 years Briefly I find that systems are boring or impractical or both,and they take the fun out of being a punter, the challenge too.
Bookies aren’t fools so unless you can walk around a town centre where there are half a dozen bookies,or have 10 or 12 different telephone accounts, then any successful system will soon be spotted. Also a good system could be applied to any activity you like where there is a market of opinions and the ability to make good selections is almost immaterial. In fact it is probably an asset if you do not have an opinion because it means that the system stands alone on percentages.
I devised a system but never tested it… I don’t have the time,it isn’t any fun,I probably do not have a larger enough bank,and to me horse racing is a genuine hobby so systems are really not for me. But for anyone who cares to try it here are the broad details. Take ANY successful jockey and choose a minimum SP….say 8-1 (12’s or 16s if you like) and ally this to a staking plan). Fool around with the figures and test it out on paper. When you are satisfied that you have the figures are right you decide on the staking units allied to the size of your bank….I suggest that you bet only when the minimum SP applies and if your chosen jockey is riding something less than 8-1 (or whatever minimum price you have chosen) then it is strictly no bet. A starting point for a trial run on paper might be one unit to each of the first 3 bets,2 units for the next 3,and so on until saturation point is reached or you need to increase the unit stake because the minimum stake would not cover the previous losses,and although I admit that I have not trialled it but common sense tells me that it work on this staking plan even if others can devise a better staking plan ! Another tip is to forget the system for a while while you assemble the facts and try listing how many jockey’s mounts start at 8-1 or more and how many big price winners these produce. I would also choose to revert to the basic single unit after each win and put a limit on when to stop a losing sequence. It won’t be easy to quantify any of this in advance remembering that some of your winners are going to be 20-1 or more inevitably. If I get to the point where I become housebound I shall eventually try it out on paper myself. By the way you can obviously switch to another jockey after you have produced a profit or even run 2 or more jockeys at the same time. As I’ve said I find systems boring but I’ve been betting for 50 years and I’m not stupid with figures so maybe this is worth trialling unless someone can improve upon it. The whole point is that sytems will always depend upon percentages and a sensible unit stake. Selection is largely immaterial.oldjohn69
For a guy who does NOT like systems and finds them boring you have put together quite a detailed posting,
funny that!
The system suggested has some reasonable merit but staking plans scare the *//x% out of me.
Isn’t it funny how how some dislike systems and some love them, some like laying and some don’t, some like reading form and some don’t, some like favourites and some don’t, some like value and others don’t give a toss.
Each to there own I say.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi billion….I was just playing devil’s advocate and not putting systems down as such, just observing that I don’t really have the time for them as they would detract from the enjoyment I get from trying to work out the form and winning a small amount of money on a regular basis. I wonder if there have been previous posters to this thread who have discovered their perfect system and therefore don’t want or need to share it !
This is on the same track that my mind follows with tipsters….why would you want to give other people winners and force the SP down ? you just back them yourself don’t you ? the usual cry is that ‘I can’t get enough money on because of my reputation’! If you buy that then you are so gullible you are beyond help.
Anyway I’m going to trial my system on paper soon so I’ll come back with the results.Dear
oldjohn66
Why not trial it here then we can all see the results as and when they race.
I am quite fascinated by your rejection of systems and can only think there is a little love/hate going on.
Billy's Outback Shack
Dear
oldjohn66
Why not trial it here then we can all see the results as and when they race.
I am quite fascinated by your rejection of systems and can only think there is a little love/hate going on.
Ok billion….I’m up for a little egg on my face although I do not think that this is going to be easy.
Even though it may work or indeed fail initially because I suspect that trialling a new system requires a little tampering with and making changes to staking plans etc.
So I shall start tomorrow with 3 jockeys and I will choose A P McCoy,Graham Lee,and Aiden Coleman as from tomorrow,and then another 3 after that. I intend to start with one unit stake for 3 rides at SP of 8-1 or higher,then 2 units for 3 rides,working up to a maximum of 5 units (because a simple calculation shows me that 5 units is the maximum stake at this point where you break even at 8-1. For each jockey you stop at a winner,and replace the jockey reverting to the basic 1 unit stake.
Any rides below 8-1 are a no bet. First selections if any will be on Wednesday,24th November.Good on you
oldjohn66
.
I don’t think you will end up with
egg on your face
at all.
When I considered your proposal I knew AP would be there, the logic speaks for itself but I confess surprise with your other choices.
Ruby would be No2 for me but sadly not available then comes Barry Geraghety (Check spelling but am sure you know who)
I do think these riders would pick up some canny rides but this is only my opinion and will watch your selections with a huge amount of interest.
Now comes the,
I am thick
, section.
Sorry but I do not understand your staking.
Is it me?
or mabe it could be you but am sure it will all become clear in due course.
Early prices count – best you can get – yes?
Good luck with
Egg On Yer Face
oldjohn66
Billy's Outback Shack
Welcome to Ward 7 Oldjohn69. Elcartero has refused the bunks so you can take the top but be warned of Billions snoring.
I’m also a bit slow on the staking bit but I’m sure it will fall into place. I Look forward to seeing how it develops, good luck……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Here we go again picking on the old and frail, it’s not fair you know
Nathan
, you will be old one day.
It is all because I get the Horlicks from
Matron
before you.
Billy's Outback Shack
"frail"
I want what Matron puts in your Horlicks…..
http://www.socialpicks.com/photo/name/4268/MoneyMan.gif?1240348192
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Ta very much Nathan and Billion ? I take it from ‘ward 7’that I am entering the world which provides early admission to the nuthouse. By the way my age is only a number….I am very on the ball mentally even with 2 artificial knees and only 9 toes as from a fortnight ago.
Im omitted Ruby because he is out for a while and Barry Gheraty because he tends to ride at only the bigger meetings in the UK. Anyway Im hoping that this system might work with the majority of good jockeys riding several times per week. As for the staking plan I kind of plucked this out of the air because based on the minimum SP of 8-1 I was trying to find a plan which would make a profit given that even this one only maintains that possibility for 15 rides….but that is quite a lot considering that there will be a lot of rides which are ‘NO BET’ being below 8-1. For example how many rides will AP get before he is on an 8-1 shot or higher ? I hope that this is a little clearer because I do appreciate that my mind knows what I’m saying but yours might be asking ‘what the hell is he talking about?’. I hope all will become clear in due course.
Incidentally I believe that is perfectly possible to adapt this system in other ways. For example trainers instead of jockeys,or racecard numbers even….it doesn’t matter as long as the minimum price is similar and the staking plan is correct. See you all in solitary guys….now that is double dutch….solitary is on your own…..see you when I get out of solitary !Dear
oldjohn69
,
Age may only be a number to you and for that I again say "good on yer" but please whatch your language when refering to inmates as "nutters", you can see the reaction by looking at
Nathan
just because he does not get the Horlicks.
Words of the ilk as per "challanged" could be a better choice because I am not sure it would be understood so easily, we must try to keep them calm otherwise
matron
will be after us.
Anyway, despite my being
challanged
by your staking plan which I hope will be more easily understood as we go along, with perhaps a little description with each stake may be of use. You can if you want go up to 20 (I am still lucky enough to have 5 on each hand and foot and so it’s no problem) but perhaps 19 in your case.
One other thought (I do love complicating the very simple), have you considered Irish racing?
Now I know very little about it over there but we spoke of Geraghty and there are one or two other top riders who do well on their home soil, such as Macnamara (check spelling) and Carbery who may be caled upon to ride a
springer
.
Billy's Outback Shack
Dear
oldjohn66
,
With different ideas will come those nuisance questions I am afraid and so here is another which follows on from the earlier posting.
I have just checked the NAAS card and market for both Garaghty and McNamara.
McNamara . . . . . . . Garaghty
. . . . . . . . . . . 12.25 . . .Lord Redsgirth 6/1
Judge Roy Bean 11/2 . 1.55 . . .Ninetieth Minute = N/r
Mullbrook 7/1 (4×1/4) . .2.30 . . .Sharekan 16/1 (4×1/4)
. . . . . . . . 3.05 ….Havagoodsip 8/1 (3×1/4)
Mullbrook is a borderline selection but paying 1/4 for 4 places is an e/w tempter.
Sharekan and Haveagoodsip are automatics at 8/1+ (available) but would you be tempted into e/w bets?
Billy's Outback Shack
Welcome to Ward 7 Oldjohn69. Elcartero has refused the bunks so you can take the top but be warned of Billions snoring.
I’m also a bit slow on the staking bit but I’m sure it will fall into place. I Look forward to seeing how it develops, good luck……
Its an ‘Insulated’ room not a padded cell, Nathan; at least that’s what they told me when we did lunch.
I like my ‘Insulated’ room…at least I don’t have to listen to you and Billion constantly wittering on about things you know nothing about such as horse racing and football.
And thanks for the Rolo, Nathan….it made up for the fact that I don’t seem to have had any food for the last few days, or Horlicks come to that.
Does Matron know I’m here?
Hello…..Hello…..Hello……………
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Is to speak at length about trivial matters.
I don’t think so!
Billy's Outback Shack
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