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Hello chaps…beginners luck !
AP and G LEE produced 4 winners between them but all rides were NO BET as none started at our minimum SP of 8-1 or more. However it has jogged my brain into realising that in a real trial we would have to decide before the off BET or NO bet based on the current price should the latest price be hovering between 7’s and 9’s when the returned SP may well become 8-1 or more. So in a real trial I would err in favour of a bet in these circumstances.
A Coleman rode one winner (STOW) at 8-1 and his next ride was below 8-1 so NO BET on that one.
After day one we go into DAY 2 with plus 8 points and the three jockeys start once more with their first 3 rides over 8-1 carrying a one point stake stopping at a winner. I shall start to get excited when we are still in profit after a week or so.AP due an 8/1+ winner as he’s currently on a losing run of 60!
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEFYWlRNR3g0cUxTWm80cTlDU2E5MGc&hl=en&authkey=CKXG1KEH#gid=0
oldjohn69
Wetherby 2.25 Ibn Hiyyan Graham Lee 5th SP 9/1
Did you miss this one?
Despite your offputting nom de plume discreditadata many thanks for pointing this out. I had indeed missed this one or not looked properly as it was only 3-1 in the morning paper. So I shall reduce the day one profit to 7 points and the jockey with only 2 lives left at a one point stake….no point in doing a trial unless you get it spot on so many thanks.
AP due an 8/1+ winner as he’s currently on a losing run of 60!
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEFYWlRNR3g0cUxTWm80cTlDU2E5MGc&hl=en&authkey=CKXG1KEH#gid=0
Hi discreditedata
Hope you can help me…I’m getting a bit old to understand spreadsheets but I had a look at this because I hadn’t realised that such figures were available. I can see roughly what the figures represent but I’m not too sure what are figures E,F and G . Are these just for AP’s rides and are others available ? Hope I’m not putting you to too much trouble. I enjoy playing around with numbers and what I’m trying to prove is that almost any system can work and achieve a regular modest return provided you get the maths right.Especially for my friends in Ward 7. I have goofed on Day I because discretdata correctly pointed out that a G.Lee ride started at 9-1, not the paper price of 3-1.
therefore the day 1 profit is only 7 points !
must try harder ! As i said to my GP I can’t sleep, I must be suffering amnesia. He said’that’s insomnia’….I said I’m sorry I forgot.I wouldn’t be able to sleep if I was in the bunk above Billion. It’s no good going to your GP either what you wanna do is see Matron have him removed…
7 points is a good solid start oldjohn. I want to thank you for putting your system up as this section of the forum gets criticised sometimes but I think it’s good to share ideas and opinions and I think I get the staking now and might try it out on 1st goalscorers in the football as an experiment.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Dear
oldjohn66
,
I must commend you on a very good start and certainly hope it may continue, well done.
"In the real world".
If I was applying myself to this system/method I would ignore morning paper forecast and check the betting market and see if 8/1 or more was abailable and snatch the best price over possible.
Example Or BLEU today at Newbury 2.10 was forecast in the paper at 7/1 but available prices were much greater with Coral out on a limb at 20/1. I understand this horse has nothing to do with you system and only am trying to highlight a vagary not being exploited.
And so I feel your profits may be so much more if you quote what price has been achieved especially at "Best Price Guaranteed"
Wishing you continued good luck.
Billy's Outback Shack
oldjohn69
Re. the spreadsheet that I posted the link to. This is a spreadsheet I produced myself and then made available (courtesy of Google) to anyone with the link. The figures in columns E, F & G of the spreadsheet refer to
SP
(Starting Price, e.g. 9=9/1, 8.5=17/2, etc., etc.),
Position
(where the horse finished in the race) &
Runners
(number of runners in the race).
The spreadsheet shows, in chronological order up to & inc 23/11/2010, all of AP’s rides in the UK & Ireland on horses with a Starting Price of 8/1 or above, since the last time he rode a winner in the UK or Ireland that started at odds of 8/1 or above.
I used the "System Builder" to produce the data and then downloaded it in to a spreadsheet which I then tidied up a little before uploading it to Google Docs which is where you were able to view it.
The System Builder query I ran at horseracebase.com was purely for AP’s mounts but in answer to your question one could run a similar query on any other single jockey or indeed several jockeys at the same time.
Furthermore, one could if so inclined, investigate jockey/trainer combinations to see which have been profitable/not profitable in the past. In fact the System Builder facility has so many variables that one could incorporate in to a query that it’s often difficult knowing just where to start!
If you have any further questions, please ask.
Day 2 Report.
G.Lee 2 losing rides
A.Coleman 2 losing rides (injured after 2.55 race)
A.McCoy I losing rideG.Lee now moves on to 2 point stake for next 3 rides.
A.McCoy has 2 remaining rides at 1 point stake.
A.Coleman has 1 remaining ride at 1 point stake.
If A Coleman is ruled out because of injury ( or indeed any of our jockeys) I shall use R.Johnson as first substituteif and when this occurs.
2 points profit are carried forward to Day 3Hi discretedata
I’m impressed with the figures you have produced and a lot of work must go into this.It is certainly a good guide and work like this allied to the law of averages must surely be a big help in forecasting when a jockey or trainer is due or overdue. I can see it being invaluable in deciding which jockeys to follow after a lean spell (not many good riders have bad streaks which go on and on and I imagine 20-30 rides without a winner is exceptional as opposed to normal). Thank you very much…I shall watch your posts with interest.Not sure what’s happening on this forum but the
I used the "System Builder" to produce the data and then downloaded it in to a spreadsheet which I then tidied up a little before uploading it to Google Docs which is where you were able to view it.We do not allow links to "commercial sites"; people can "Google" if they wish to find it.
Regards
Just out of interest heres the form of your 3 jockeys.
From 2007 till now 8/1 to 10/1 sp range
Sequences of Consecutive Unsuccessful Win SelectionsLee Mccoy Coleman
1 Loser 0 2 2
2 Losers 3 6 1
3 Losers 1 2 2
4 Losers 2 2 1
5 Losers 2 3 3
6 Losers 0 0 0
7 Losers 1 2 0
8 Losers 2 2 0
9 Losers 1 1 2
10 Losers 2 1 0
11 Losers 1 1 2
12 Losers 0 1 1
13 Losers 0 1 0
14 Losers 1 0 0
15 Losers 2 1 0
16 Losers 0 0 0
17 Losers 0 0 0
18 Losers 1 0 1
19 Losers 0 1 0
20 Losers 0 0 0
21 Losers 0 0 0
22 Losers 1 2 1
23 Losers 0 0 0
24 Losers 1 0 0
25 Losers 0 1 0
26 Losers 1 2 0
27 Losers 0 0 0
28 Losers 0 0 0
29 Losers 0 0 0
30+ Losers 2 0 1
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