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After Serpentine, Khalifa Sat & Amrhan Na Where Is He Now last year TTC, I certainly wouldn’t put you off Youth Spirit e/way. But on collateral Newmarket form through Secret Protector & Highland Avenue, Youth Spirit looks miles behind Mohaafeth, unless he’s come on a ton. Good luck anyway.
Not very scientific, but the fact Mac Swiney hasn’t yet backed up a winning performance (5-1-9-1-8-1-4-1) puts me off for Epsom. Wouldn’t rule out another G1 later in the year though.
Looks like the usual Longchamp bog. Lullaby Moon appeals e/way at 10/1, 4 places. Will handle the ground, but stamina doubt on pedigree = caution.
Don’t get me wrong TinMan, I’d love to see John Leeper prove to be top class, in time. My point was more ‘let’s keep our feet on the ground at this stage’. Look at Almighwar, by Dubawi out of Taghrooda. Bred to win a Derby, impressive in novice events at three. Now favourite – for a Chester Cup…
Zoffany fillies have been good runners-up in English & Irish Oakses, so ‘yes’, they can train on.
But, Alcohol Free – do No Nay Nevers truly get a mile? So far, only Wichita did (just). Ten Sovereigns & Arizona – nope. Alcohol Free looks more of a 7f Jersey / Lennox / Foret type to me.Thanks for the alert Patrick. If that crawl/sprint pace was typical of a HK 2400m group race, no chance for an ex-European runner. A class 5 handicap earlier on the card over the same distance, was run a second faster. When the international European & Japanese runners come to HK in December for the Vase, you might get an end-to-end gallop. See you then…
Santa Barbara 3/1 fav for the Oaks. Probably a bit more realistic, but still pretty skinny…
Thanks Cork & TTC. No particular expertise in picking a Baffert runner in a Kentucky Derby, but what a brilliant front-running ride from Velazquez. Damn, the guy’s a star.
Yep 20/1 bet365 best odds guarantee, small stake. Even a blind pig finds an acorn sometimes…
Could do worse than Medina Spirit e/w at 12s. Baffert. Velazquez. Never out of first two in five starts. Would probably do for me, if I was playing.
Agree John Leeper was visually impressive, but “all horses look quick when they’re running past trees”.
Frankel / Snow Fairy a top drawer pedigree alright, but the half sister by Gleneagles could only struggle up to a mark of 100 in her final race last year.
Yep, need some turf evidence before getting involved for the Derby.Maybe, but on the other hand, they’ve gelded Southern France. Most of the prize money and prestige in Australia is in races up to 10f, and staying races are just novelties. I can’t see their breeding industry changing its approach very much. Most of their stayers seem to be New Zealand-bred anyway.
A safety smokescreen for what is probably an admission that the speed obsession in Australian breeding is coming home to roost. European 12 furlong + horses are starting to dominate their Cup, so they make it harder for these horses to travel, then they’ll buy them and send them to local trainers (e.g. Sir Dragonet). It was either that or reduce the Melbourne Cup distance to 12, or even 10 furlongs. Which actually, I can still see them doing in the next 20 years or so.
Just watched the replay – hmm.
No consistency at all. Compared to Silvestre on Stone Of Destiny the other day, Rab finished like a lunatic…Thanks for the info Patrick. They didn’t even run in the HK Derby, although I note that Russian Emperor (another ex O’Brien Group 3 winner) did finish second – and would probably have won in another half furlong. Still feel horses like these are too stamina-laden for the majority of HK events at 9 – 10f.
On Timeform ratings:-
Dayjur 137
Battaash and Sakhee both 136
Nashwan and Intikhab both 135Not too sure about Intikhab’s rating myself. Handy enough horse, but never won a G1 race – Queen Anne was a G2 when he won it.
I know that of course C50. I was just hoping Hamdan’s passing doesn’t get linked by the media to the Latifa affair, by his close association with his brother Sheikh Mohammed (who I think is actually younger not older).
Anyway, fond memories of all the great horses to run in his colours. Aside from the obvious Nashwan and Dayjur, I always had a soft spot for Elmaamul. Gave me a nice payday in the 1990 Eclipse…
