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8.40 @ Uttoxoter tonight.
A 13 year old grey colt called Mighty Fine is running.
He has won 4 of his last 5 races and is thriving at the moment, and is one of the reasons that it is so easy to fall in love with the National Hunt game.
I am not knocking the flat for one minute as I love that also, but I love the jumps purely for the fact that you get horses like Mighty Fine and Spot The Difference who keep winning no matter what age they are.
The Punchestown Festival and the Cheltenham Festival are just simply magical, you don’t get that on the flat. Yes there are some great meets, but nothing can rival the National Hunt festivals in my opinion.
Mike
Cheers SC,
Yes I love my football, golf and horse racing, and I dare say the football and golf present me with far more successful bets lol.
I totally agree about Martin Jol, he has been a great signing by Spurs after they went years hiring managers who had previously served the club well (Ardilles and Hoddle etc), and I have to admit they have some fire power up front at the moment with all 4 of Keane, Berbatov, Bent and Defoe still on the books. It’s imperative that they keep at least 3 of them, but if they could keep all 4, and keep all 4 happy, then they will certainly be a force. Huddlestone is a great midfielder also, and with Dawson at the back and Robinson in goal they certainly look like having a very strong back bone, which is very important as you know.
I don’t usually bet on the ‘first manager to lose their job’ markets, but I just think, like you, that Bruce is was too high at 12/1 and Sammy Lee too big at 9/1. Again, I couldn’t agree more about Sam Allardyce being the man that got Bolton ticking. He is a great motivator, and a great tactician by all accounts. He uses all the upto date technology, whereas I am not sure that Sammy Lee will know how to switch a computer on, and I dare say that being part of the successful Liverpool teams of the late 70’s and 80’s then Sammy might resort to some old fashioned training – which we all know is way behind the times now. He just strikes me as a manager who would say "well it worked for us at Liverpool….". I really can’t see him attracting any big names and I think he will struggle to get the best out of his current team. All that adds up to Bolton having a poor start possibly, and Phil Garside is a chairman who would probably act sooner rather than later.
I haven’t had any ante post football bets yet, but I soon will be, so let me know what type of markets you go for, and if anything stands out to you.
Off to the Karaoke tonight – Oh My God, I dread to think……….
Speak later
Mike
I am hoping that Dutch Art wins imprerssively as he is the one horse in the race who has the potential to be a genuine sprint champion.
Good call, but Sakhee’s Secret hasn’t put a foot wrong as a three year old and looks to be a sprinter out of the very top drawer.
Lets hope that it is Dutch Art or Sakhee’s that wins impressively and goes on to be top class, rather than another sprinter taking his/her turn to win before bombing out for a few months.
Mike
Thanks Colin……expecting a good run.
We haven’t crossed swords on the forum yet Naps, so this is my first post to you and it’s to wish you all the luck in the world. I hope the horse gets the hat-trick for you.
Has he done any schooling yet over the fences, or is that for the future. Let me know how he gets on won’t you
.Good luck today and for the future.
Mike
Great ride by Sanders on the favourite. Good price for anyone who did back her. She looked the form choice but I just couldn’t have her. I got my money back with the placed horse though so not too bad.
Mike
Many thanks for the comments Insomniac, much appreciated.
Arsenal are a terrific footballing team and Arsene Wenger is probably the best manager in the world when it comes to spotting relatively unknown players and youth players, and then bringing them through the ranks to play some breathtaking football.
It could well be that losing Henry is a blessing in disguise as many times he was the culprit of ‘trying to walk the ball in the net’. Everything seemed to revolve around him and it was if he said to his team mates that he wasn’t going to put the ball in the net unless it reaches him after 20 successful passes, including a back heel and a bicycle kick lol. Now that he has gone I have no doubt that they will still play attacking football and will be more direct, ala Man Utd last season. However, I still think they are probably a season short of gelling as really great team.
Wenger has never broke a contract, which is why he is unlikely to leave Arsenal, but I could just see him using the ‘David Deane’ get out route if Arsenal were to suffer a terrible start. However, I doubt very much they will start poorly and Wenger will be there till the end.
Do you think he will sign a new contract, or do you think he will be gone at the end of the season?
Mike
For me, Red Current looks very short for a regressive filly which connections are not too interested in keeping.
That said, the short-list of solid rivals is a very short one indeed. I have a nice round number of such animals in this event.
Rather than backing or laying the Fanshawe horse, I would rather be looking at small backs on Sew In Character for the almost-on-the-edge-of-rediscovering-some-form-at-last Blanshard stable, and Camisso who has been running (relatively) respectably over shorter and might prove better suited by a shocking race over a mile despite pedigree concerns.
I couldn’t agree more NV. I would be happy for her to win without me backing her, rather than her lose if I do back her.
Even though her last time out form against Mick Is Back is head and shoulders above what her opposition have achieved lately, I still can’t back her at the price today. As Colin said above, Fanshawe has had just one winner in claimers in the last 5 years, and he has also been reluctant to race on the AW, having only 6 runners and no winners this year.
It’s as if the trainer has put her in the first suitable claimer, hoping that someone will claim on the back of her last time out ‘encouraging’ effort. She has a good jockey on board and will take all the beating today no doubt, but she isn’t for me. I will be backing both Camissa and Gifted Heir for both win and place but only to small stakes as it is a poor contest, even by ‘claimer’ standards.
Mike
This claimer does look a very poor event, and if Red Current is ever to win it has be this race. The ‘Comment In Running’ for Happy Hester last time makes amusing reading………….’took 2 steps forwards then reversed through the starting stalls and out the back, unseated rider and took no part’.
Rob
Don’t remind me, I backed the horse that day when it was 6/4 favourite. It’s called Hester Brook not Happy Hester lol – I don’t think you could ever call this horse Happy lol.
In my opinion, this race looks no stronger than the one she was 6/4 favourite, yet today she is generally 14/1 and trading well into the 20’s on BF.
Mike
From a punting point of view, the race is far too much of a headache to get invloved in.
The favourite has never raced in this grade before and needs to step up on all known form. You have a very fancied horse that is stepping back in trip by 2 furlongs. Then there is an Australian horse having his first run in England. The ground looks as it it will be completely different to the ground that Asset/Soldiers Tale and co encountered last time. Then there are the possibilities of certain horses ‘returning to form’ etc. It’s a nightmare.
For me, there is nothing wrong with the way Asset, Red Clubs or Dandy Man ran last time out and that’s where I would be looking. But I most certaingly won’t be having a bet, but watching it more as a spectacle. I would love Sakhee’s Secret to win and go on to be a dominant force in sprinting, as I really think we could do with one.
Mike
Haven’t seen the Loch Lomond field or market yet, but have an eye out for Andres Romero. Finished T2 last year, and has been solid (if distinctly unspectacular in places) this season. Never outside the top 35, with 3/8 top 10’s along the way. Will be a big price.
Friggo,
Was he the guy who had the hole in one on Thursday? I was very impressed with him. When he struck that tee shot he was playing terrible and was 5 over. Sometimes a hole in one can throw your concentration, but this guy went from 5 over to finishing the tournament at 3 under, very imessive when you think that the first round lead of 6 under, only progressed to a winning score of 11 under.
Now I must go and look at the Loch Lomonde field lol.
Mike
Anyone any views on what the ground was last night or know of what railing out was done as the times look much quicker than the official good to soft.
They interviewed Richard Hughes after his first race win. His comments were to say the ground was riding a little better than good to soft and also that the far rail had been moved inwards between 8 & 10 yards.
Tommo asked him if he would be going across to the far rail in any of his futre races. Hughes said no because the strip of ground that they usually race on when they go over was not available because the rail had been moved inwards. At first he said 10 yards, then changed it to 8.
Hope that helps.
Mike
I would also like to say, does what Sir Mark Prescott do make him the ‘genius’ the media make him out to be for doing it?
Mike
Mike
It’s a matter of opinion and no more than that. You seem to be a knowledgeable follower of racing, have made up your mind to the contrary and I respect that opinion.
Rob
Cheers for that Rob.
I am an admirer of Sir Mark Prescott for sure, more so because I have been involved with many of his gambles, including Pasternak (oh what a day).
I will say he is brilliant at laying horses out for big races, there is no question about that. And if he lays out horses to win big races as often as he does then I have no problem calling him a ‘genius’ for doing so.
I just don’t think he is a ‘genius’ for getting good horses beat in maidens before racking up a string of handicap wins of lowly marks. He is clever no doubt. But I dare say that given the opportunity, most trainers would be able to do the same thing.
If I could name another 10 trainers who try and do exactly what Sir Mark does, but fail, then I would be happy to revise my opinion of him. But to be honest, I don’t think there are many that do what Sir Mark does, but if they do, then I am sure they would be able to get a few handicap wins also.
Mike
I would also like to say, does what Sir Mark Prescott do make him the ‘genius’ the media make him out to be for doing it?
Most of the time, these horses that rack up 5 or 6 handicap wins will end up being a 90+ rated horse – I don’t think anyone can argue with that.
So is getting a 90+ horse (ability wise) to win a 0-55 handicap, a 0-65 handicap and a 0-75 handicap real ‘genius’.
OK, some might say that getting a 90+ (ability wise) to qualify for these lowly handicaps is the ‘genius’ bit. Well you give any trainer a 90+ horse (ability wise) that will like 12f as a 3 year old. Let them run it in 3 very quick 5f/6f races and see what handicap mark they get when they trail in 13th, 16th and 11th. Is it really genius?
Mike
Why then, is Limelight (for ’tis his name) being run this early in his juvenile season, over unsuitable distances, to qualify for a handicap mark of around the high 50’s/low 60’s in order to run up a sequence of low grade handicaps at places like Brighton and Hamilton next year, when, given his breeding and ownership, he should not be seen until at least late September, when he has strengthened up, and over a suitable distance, with a view to actually being competitive in his maiden and being aimed at listed/group company next Spring?
tWW
A few questions:
Is running a horse over the ‘wrong distance’ against the rules?
Is running a horse which hasn’t ‘strengthened up’ against the rules?
Are certain horses by dint of breeding not allowed to run before September?
Are certain owners not allowed to run horses before September?
If you can genuinely answer YES to any of those questions then you have a point. I don’t believe that you can.
Sir Mark Prescott is guilty of no more than ‘working the system’. If there’s a problem then the system, and it’s concentration on handicaps as a proportion of racing is the problem, not those who exploit the current system. If that’s the case the system neds changing not those who exploit the system or it’s shortcomings. Anyway if you point at Sir Mark, is he not ‘guilty’ of exploiting opportunities that many others pass up?
Incidentally the Racing Post summary of the Limelight’s breeding reads as follows:
6th foal, closely related to Approach, a smart performer over 7-10f at 2-3, & Intrigued, useful performer over 1m at 2 (both by Darshaan), half-sister to top-class miler Aussie Rules; dam 6f winner at 2 & high-class 10f 3yo, from top-class family
If judged on the distaff side at least, a run at 6f wouldn’t be a forlorn hope. I’m only surmising, but it’s a pretty fair bet that looking through the form book it would be possible to find a fair few with similar breeding running creditably in 6f events.
Quite apart from all this, the ‘Sir Mark syndrome’ seems so widely known that it would be hard to miss anyway!
Rob
Rob, I agree with everything you say, especially that Sir Mark is just working the system.
But I just can’t get away from the fact that running a horse over the wrong distance, knowing it is not good enough to win – well how can that be in the best interests of the sport?
Like I said in my previous post, it’s easy for us punters to use what Sir Mark does to our advantage because we know exactly what he is up to. But what about someone who walks into the betting shop for the first time or goes to the races for the first time, and sticks his hard earned £10 on one of Sir Marks because he likes the name of the horse. That poor chap doesn’t realise that despite the horse being 33/1 or so and being an outsider, in reality, the horse should be a 1000/1 because it is the only horse in the race certain not to win. At least if he backs a 33/1 chance it should be a genuine 33/1 chance and be running to it’s merits. But backing a Sir Mark horse that is running over the wrong distance purely to get beat is not good for the game in my opinion.
But I totally agree that Sir Mark is not breaking any rules,
Great post.
All I will say is that whether you agree or don’t agree with what Sir Mark does, it is easy ‘as a punter’ to use it to your advantage.
* If a Prescott horse is friendless in the market IT DOES NOT WIN
* If a Prescott horse is running 2 or 3 consecutive races in 6f maidens when appearing to need further IT DOES NOT WIN
* If a Prescott horse is backed first time out IT IS LIKELY TO BE USEFUL
* If a Prescott horse is running in a handicap for the first time over a distance much further than it’s maiden runs IT WILL PROBABLY WIN
Mike
I agree with Himself. Brigadier Gerard certainly would’ve beaten Zafonic so would El Gran Senor and so would Dancing Brave.
Anything else, questionable.
I think one of the hardest things in racing is trying to compare the abilities or form of horses from different generations. In fact all it does is provoke more opinions lol.
Mike
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