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July Cup 2007

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion July Cup 2007

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 59 total)
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  • #4566
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    This year’s renewal looks fairly ordinary- the departure of 3 of the 4 Antipodean Ascot raiders for home having robbed the race of some much-needed class. Nonetheless, it is always an interesting puzzle and S.P.s of 14/1, 22/1 and 10/1 in the last 3 renewals mean the reward for solving it may be substantial.
    The favourite Sakhee’s Secret is the new kid on the sprinting block and explosive displays in a handicap at HQ as well as listed events at Newbury and Salisbury mean he is sure to be popular. He looks too short to me at around 7/2 given that he’s never experienced the white heat of Group One sprinting competition. I could see him shortening further and if so will be laying him.
    Asset ran a cracker in the Golden Jubilee and if the ground dries out has a great chance. At 4/1 he is no more than fairly priced however.
    Soldier’s Tale was greatly assisted by the rain at Ascot and for me won’t have the speed to follow up if the ground conditions continue to improve.
    Amadeus Wolf looked terrific at York but went on to flop at Ascot, reportedly scoping dirty afterwards. If you could genuinely forget his last run he’d be right in this, but I reckon he’s not over generously priced given the leap of faith involved.
    Dutch Art is a fascinating runner.The way he travelled in the Prince of Wales’ suggests he’ll have the speed to lie up with the sprinters but the 3 year olds who win this usually come via the Jersey and it looks a bit of an afterthought en route to mile races later on.
    Red Clubs is a tough top level performer who has every right to hope to reverse York form with Amadeus Wolf on 4lbs better terms. He’s right in the mix and makes some appeal at 12/1.
    Bentley Biscuit couldn’t go on firm ground in the King’s Stand and got jarred up. If there’s cut in the ground he can’t be discounted.
    Dandy Man is the opposite- the faster the better. I think he’s better at 5 than 6 however and reckon he’ll be caught near home by the cavalry even if he gets his ground.
    I’ll be holding fire until we have an idea how the ground will ride on Friday and until I see the draw, but if I have a bet it is likely to be on Red Clubs.

    #106763
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Asset for me….

    Always had a touch of class and Newmarket drains so well that conditions could be fine. though he ran a superb race last time when ground was against him and stable in great form

    #106766
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Baltic King at a huge price, "get on "

    #106821
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3772

    Sakhee’s Secret is an improving horse and looked very impressive in his last start. The July Cup will naturally be his toughest test to date, though I do think he is capable of winning it, but I would be more hopeful than confident.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #106969
    Bosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    This looks set to be a great race. I’d have to go for a horse open to improvement.

    Sakhees Secret has looked impressive but will need to improve.

    Dutch Art is an interesting runner. He does travel very well in his races, has a decisive turn of foot and a genuine touch of class – something a few of these lack. I just think, as previously stated by another member, this race is an after thought and I’d be more inclined to go for an older horse.

    Red Clubs and Amadeus Wolf should be well aquainted by now. Both are capable of winning but are slightly exposed, especially by an improving horse.

    Asset and Soldier’s Tale are deservedly at the head of the market. These respective older horses have shown the level of form required to win this race and, although four and six years old respectively, have more improvement in them having only accumulated 8 races each.

    Asset would be my pick to reverse ascot form with Jeremy Noseda’s horse. The faster ground, certain electrifying pace and a slight uphill finish will suit this Mile winner. The horse was surely at a disadvantage when returning from a two month lay-off when running third last time.

    Dutch Art will run a big race and Sander Camillo could run into a place if back to her best. Reverting back to 6F for the first time since a two-year old when landing the Cherry Hinton, this CD winner receives three, six and NINE pounds from the rest of the field. She looks a tempting, if small, each-way bet.

    #106976
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    I don’t see why Bentley Biscuit can’t win this, the easier surface will suit him, and he’s a proven genuine Group 1 sprinter, unlike some of the other pretenders.

    Dutch Art is an interesting runner, especially now he’s going to be running over what is likely to be his best trip. As has been implied in other posts though, he’s been trained as a miler so far this season and this kind of preparation isn’t ideal in the modern era of increased specialisation.

    #106982
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    Sander Camillo could run into a place if back to her best. Reverting back to 6F for the first time since a two-year old when landing the Cherry Hinton, this CD winner receives three, six and NINE pounds from the rest of the field. She looks a tempting, if small, each-way bet.

    Bosranic, it’s a Group One race. As a filly, she gets a sex allowance. The rest is weight-for-age. Basically, the field meets on level terms.

    #106991
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    he’s been trained as a miler so far this season and this kind of preparation isn’t ideal in the modern era of increased specialisation.

    Not ideal, but not insurmountable. Stravinsky and Mozart in recent years were both prepped for the race by running over further than 6f. In fact it was Mozart’s first attempt at the distance whilst Starvinsky hadn’t tried 6f since his debut.

    #106998
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Mick Channon’s Aussie import Mutawaajid could be an interesting one – don’t know much abot how the races were run/won but on a line through Gold Edition, wouldn’t be miles beind either Miss Andretti or Takeover Target. The Gr2 that Mutawaajid won was obviously only a warm-up for Gold Edition for the big Newmarket (in AUS) Handicap NTO where he lost to Miss Andretti but the 16/1 seems generous enough about the horse for Saturday. Bowman is also very familiar with the horse having ridden him several times back in Oz.

    #107000
    Breath Of Fresh Ayr
    Member
    • Total Posts 82

    Mick Channon’s Aussie import Mutawaajid could be an interesting one – don’t know much abot how the races were run/won but on a line through Gold Edition, wouldn’t be miles beind either Miss Andretti or Takeover Target. The Gr2 that Mutawaajid won was obviously only a warm-up for Gold Edition for the big Newmarket (in AUS) Handicap NTO where he lost to Miss Andretti but the 16/1 seems generous enough about the horse for Saturday. Bowman is also very familiar with the horse having ridden him several times back in Oz.

    I agree. I saw him on ATR and he looked nothing short of magnificent.

    #107021
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    The horse has been at Channon’s long enough for him to work his magic too. That makes it a place lay then imo! :lol:

    #107024
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    For me a pretty decent renewal with the likes of SIlver Touch, New Girlfriend, Firenze, Ashdown Express and Baltic King possibles to miss the cut.

    Bentley Biscuit is coming back to his best and with the ground and trip likely to suit he is right back in the picture.

    The ex-Gai Waterhouse trained Mutawaajid has been laid out for this race for a long time and looks a very useful type if he hs sharp enough on his first start. Hugh Bowman knows him well and rates him highly.

    Of the locals I fancy Asset who is classy and goes on seemingly any ground.

    As for a bet it is probably Drayton each way at a big price with Weichong Marwing back in the saddle. He ran a cracker in the Golden Jubilee after missing the break.

    #107089
    Bosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    Sander Camillo could run into a place if back to her best. Reverting back to 6F for the first time since a two-year old when landing the Cherry Hinton, this CD winner receives three, six and NINE pounds from the rest of the field. She looks a tempting, if small, each-way bet.

    Bosranic, it’s a Group One race. As a filly, she gets a sex allowance. The rest is weight-for-age. Basically, the field meets on level terms.

    My analysis merely reflects the opinion that, should this filly be back to her best, I don’t think there’s a horse in this race that can give her nine pounds. It still remains to be seen whether she has trained on and also over her well documented problems.

    I’ve never agreed with the sex allowance. It’s like saying ‘she’s a filly, so she’s automatically inferior’ – a case of human ignorance (based on the theory that women can’t run as fast as men, so it’s going to be the same with horses).

    The weight-for-age concession I can agree with. Still, I don’t think there’s a classier horse in the race than Dutch Art and he’ll be receiving three and six pounds respectively – hardly a level playing field.

    #107097
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    From a punting point of view, the race is far too much of a headache to get invloved in.

    The favourite has never raced in this grade before and needs to step up on all known form. You have a very fancied horse that is stepping back in trip by 2 furlongs. Then there is an Australian horse having his first run in England. The ground looks as it it will be completely different to the ground that Asset/Soldiers Tale and co encountered last time. Then there are the possibilities of certain horses ‘returning to form’ etc. It’s a nightmare.

    For me, there is nothing wrong with the way Asset, Red Clubs or Dandy Man ran last time out and that’s where I would be looking. But I most certaingly won’t be having a bet, but watching it more as a spectacle. I would love Sakhee’s Secret to win and go on to be a dominant force in sprinting, as I really think we could do with one.

    Mike

    #107114
    Bosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    From a punting point of view, the race is far too much of a headache to get invloved in.

    The favourite has never raced in this grade before and needs to step up on all known form. You have a very fancied horse that is stepping back in trip by 2 furlongs. Then there is an Australian horse having his first run in England. The ground looks as it it will be completely different to the ground that Asset/Soldiers Tale and co encountered last time. Then there are the possibilities of certain horses ‘returning to form’ etc. It’s a nightmare.

    For me, there is nothing wrong with the way Asset, Red Clubs or Dandy Man ran last time out and that’s where I would be looking. But I most certaingly won’t be having a bet, but watching it more as a spectacle. I would love Sakhee’s Secret to win and go on to be a dominant force in sprinting, as I really think we could do with one.

    Mike

    This race is not one to put the wages on. I had a small each-way bet on Notnowcato Saturday and will do so in this race. Sometimes a bet in a competitive, class race like this can spoil the occasion and cloud my post-race judgement. ( :lol: )

    I’d like to see Asset win. There could be as much as 8mm of rain falling on the course before Friday. He wouldn’t be disadvantaged by slow ground but I think he’d prefer quicker conditions. Therefore, my money would be on Dutch Art who, IMO, is the class act in the field and acts on any ground as he demonstrated as a 2YO.

    I think Sander Camillo is still a cracking little EW bet.

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