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Can Authorized be beaten?

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  • #4539
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Hi all,

    Regarding the Coral Eclipse on Saturday, my question is does anyone think that Authorized will be beaten. Personally I think the horse is a stand out selection and is impossible to oppose.

    At the 48 hour stage, only 3 trainers are willing to take on the impressive Derby winner. Those 3 trainers are Clive Brittain (Kandidate), Sir Michael Stoute (Notnowcato) and Aiden O’Brien (George Washington, Admirofthefleet, Archipenko, Yellowstone). The only other trainer represented is Mark Johnston though his horse is in their purely as a pacemaker and is easily disregarded.

    Now the first thing to say is that only 3 trainers willing to take Authorized on is a shocker. This is one of the principle races of the whole season and just 3 trainers other than Peter Chapple-Hyam are trying to win it.

    Authorized looks at this stage to be of the highest quality, but he does have to defy the poor record of Derby winners in the Coral Eclipse. It has to be pointed out though, that the majority of the past Derby winners to be beaten in this race have been beaten by older horses, so it’s quite important to say at this stage that Authorized only faces 3 older horses in this renewal. He is head and shoulders above the other 3 year olds on all known form and should have no trouble finishing in front of them.

    The main dangers in the market are George Washington and Notnowcato but as much as I agree that Gorgeous George has a lot of class I just can’t have him here. The ground is one concern, but an even bigger negative in my opinion is his entry, and liklihood to run, in the July Cup over 6 furlong. It’s as if the amazing O’Brien is still trying to work George out, running him over 10 furlongs on Saturday and then stepping back to 6 furlongs a week later. Somehow I can’t see him running in both races and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gorgeous George not run on Saturday, in preference for the July Cup. I have no doubt that George will get better ground at Newmarket then he will at Sandwon and that the 6 furlong will help his settle much better than it will on Saturday over a trip he has only ran once at (and flopped).

    I can see Notnowcato eventually starting as the 2nd favourite and is the only danger to the favourite in my opinion. He will have no problems regarding the trip and he acts on ny ground. But once again I can’t see this horse, who is offically rated 4lb inferior to Authorized, giving the favourite 11lb and a beating. Notnowcate would have to run to a career best rating to overturn the favourite if they all run their race. The only other older horse is Kandidate, and although Clive Brittain has an excellent record with big priced horses in big races, it’s impossible to fancy this one.

    In summary, I have been looking at this race for weeks, and with the ground and race conditions in Authorized’s favour I simply can’t see this horse getting beat on Saturday. On all known form he is better than the other 3 year olds and with doubts about George Washington’s participation and ability at the trip, and doubts whether Notnowcato can run a career best, then Authorized represents a rock solid selections.

    All the best,

    Mike

    #106224
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    It might be worth bearing in mind that Authorized is rated 4lbs superior to Notnowcato on his 12f form; rpr 130, whereas N’s best rpr 127 was over the Eclipse distance. Wfa is allowed for in these ratings, rendering the 11lbs concession as meaningless in the context of this race.
    While Authorised is undoubtedly a high class horse, he has yet to prove himself against a horse of Notnowcato’s ability, particularly over 10 furlongs, and there would be much safer 2/1 on shots.
    Imo, of course.

    #106228
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Notnowcato’s ability ? Authorized will have him for breakfast, reet.
    Well and truly put in his place behind Manduro & Dylan Thomas, just a bit of proof, that his Curragh victory over Dylan Thomas was a fluke. Only thing I can say in his favour he will like the ground, certainly won’t inconvenience Authorized {RP Trophy}. No Chance, neither have the rest of the opposition. Not a backable price, sit back and enjoy a real racehorse in action.

    #106231
    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    It might be worth bearing in mind that Authorized is rated 4lbs superior to Notnowcato on his 12f form; rpr 130, whereas N’s best rpr 127 was over the Eclipse distance. Wfa is allowed for in these ratings, rendering the 11lbs concession as meaningless in the context of this race.
    While Authorised is undoubtedly a high class horse, he has yet to prove himself against a horse of Notnowcato’s ability, particularly over 10 furlongs, and there would be much safer 2/1 on shots.
    Imo, of course.

    Obviously, Notnowcato is a good horse, and there is no doubting he excels over 10 furlongs, but I think he’s very beatable. His only win this term came when he beat Dylan Thomas in a very slow time, which looked to me as if the race turned into a speed dual after crawling through the early fractions ( one day we will get all the sections, not just the final one , and then we can tell what really happened). Apart from this, his profile looks solid rather than spectacular.

    If Authorized is the real deal , which, for what it’s worth, I think he is, I believe there will be only one winner on Saturday. We will find out soon.

    Just my two cents..

    #106233
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    Notnowcato’s ability ? Authorized will have him for breakfast, reet.
    Well and truly put in his place behind Manduro & Dylan Thomas, just a bit of proof, that his Curragh victory over Dylan Thomas was a fluke. Only thing I can say in his favour he will like the ground, certainly won’t inconvenience Authorized {RP Trophy}. No Chance, neither have the rest of the opposition. Not a backable price, sit back and enjoy a real racehorse in action.

    How was it a ‘fluke’? Like his Juddmonte? Like coming second in last years Eclipse?

    #106237
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Notnowcato won’t live with Authorized.

    He’s a good horse in his own right but he’s around a 120 – 122 horse. Good enough to win weakish group ones and / or races that fall his way and is often likely to be placed in good races but when he meets real high class opposition he’s the type that will always struggle unless something happens to another horse or his jockey steals the race something like that.

    Can’t see Authorized being troubled to be honest. If he’s as good as I think he is, Notnowcato won’t trouble him.

    #106240
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    For the record, I think Authorized is probably very good indeed.

    It is a bit of a shame that there is no strength in depth to his rivals – particularly the older rivals – in the Eclipse.

    Notnowcato is a good horse but has never really had pretensions to superstar status, whilst Kandidate doesn’t look good enough now and George Washington may well not be as good as he once was and could find 10f on soft ground too much of a stamina test.

    Authorized could win this race now and, especially if Notnowcato doesn’t perform that well, would not necessarily have proved very much at all. He will have bagged that all important 1m2f Group 1, but plenty of doubters will still have plenty of doubt…

    #106243
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    For the record, I think Authorized is probably very good indeed.

    It is a bit of a shame that there is no strength in depth to his rivals – particularly the older rivals – in the Eclipse.

    Notnowcato is a good horse but has never really had pretensions to superstar status, whilst Kandidate doesn’t look good enough now and George Washington may well not be as good as he once was and could find 10f on soft ground too much of a stamina test.

    Authorized could win this race now and, especially if Notnowcato doesn’t perform that well, would not necessarily have proved very much at all. He will have bagged that all important 1m2f Group 1, but plenty of doubters will still have plenty of doubt…

    Agreed.

    Authorized is in a bit of a no win situation on Saturday. If he wins easily people will point to the lack of strength of the opposition and claim that he should’ve won easily, if he scrapes home he’ll be knocked for not winning more easily and if he gets beat he automatically becomes another sub standard Derby winner.

    Of course until the race is run its difficult to assess the merits of it. I would tend to use Notnowcato as standing dish to rate the race as he’s a proper ten furlong horse that handles most going so in theory, before the race I expect to rate the race around him.

    #106244
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Obviously there are question marks about the ground and trip, but 9/2 is the wrong price about George Washington. I’d have him around half those odds and will play the race accordingly.

    #106272
    Hawk Wing
    Member
    • Total Posts 141

    of course he can be beaten, I remember the exact same guff two years ago when Motivator was sent off 2/5 for it

    #106289
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    of course he can be beaten, I remember the exact same guff two years ago when Motivator was sent off 2/5 for it

    By all means Hawk, go ahead and waste your hard earned dough by opposing him, Authorized will bolt up and you will end up looking like the following smiley :oops:

    #106310
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I have been looking to back George Washington here since his run at Ascot where he really impressed me despite failing to settle, hardly surprising given the circumstances. With the freshness off him I expect a much different run here. I much prefer a horse going up in trip for the Eclipse than down- history favours them greatly. I have backed him, but confidence is lessened by the prospect of very soft ground. If it dries out before Saturday, I’ll be having more on.

    #106318
    onefurlongout
    Member
    • Total Posts 197

    The only question to answer tomorrow is how far will authorized win by. I dont think any of the other horses can live with him, but at those prices I’ll be leaving him alone.

    Archipenko might be a decent bet without the fav

    #106321
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    My only concern about Authorized is that(like many previous Derby winners) he was brought to a peak for the Epsom race where he probably ran the race of his life. That was the one that mattered. He now has to go on and prove himself against the older horses.

    Fortunately, he doesn’t appear to have to repeat his Epsom form to win this race, so I wouldn’t oppose him. If this had been a tougher test for him, we might have found out if he could be considered as a real champion. He may get the opportunity to prove this later in the season.

    Finally, he’s already done his main job – winning the Derby – so I don’t expect he will be knocked about too much in the Eclipse because there are other, perhaps better races to be competed for in the late summer.

    #106324
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    The only question to answer tomorrow is how far will authorized win by.

    15/8 two lengths or more
    2/1 less than two lengths

    (Coral’s prices)

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