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It’s quite a race and deserves to be for the money on offer. It’s a while since I visited the forum as I’m usually elsewhere and/or corresponding with close family/friends by email. Maybe I’ll get round to working out how to copy my table of ratings as I have them but this is the summary I came up with. The horses mentioned are in order of my overall ratings in the table.
Once again, the £1m prize on offer for the Ebor has to be a factor in looking at this race which had its inaugural running last season. I’ve been mentioning it regularly this season and I noticed the TV people were factoring it into the debate ahead of the Old Newton Cup last weekend. Alan King won the Northumberland Plate with Who Dares Wins (Marquand) and could have put Top Tug away for the Ebor. Hughie Morrison is definitely a target trainer too but Not So Sleepy might need give. I went positive with the Northumberland Plate form and it suggests King’s Advice, despite finishing sixth, improved again so he must come into the reckoning. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Perrett has laid out Platitude for the Ebor too but he’ll need to win this to get up the weights. As I said before, I think it will probably take a rating of at least 100 to make the cut so anything on that mark or higher can’t really afford a penalty but the weights aren’t out yet and a bunch finish here might see the winner of this going up by only 3lbs or so. However, the weights aren’t out yet and entries 37 and 38 in order of ORs are rated 100, and that’s excluding the Irish entries. I’ve just checked and it turns out the lowest rating in last year’s Ebor was 102 so with double the money on offer it will almost certainly go up although there will be two more places available. Ben Vrackie should have won the Duke of Edinburgh and is a LOT better than the bare result. He’s also 4lbs well in here so can afford to win narrowly and not go up. There also has to be a fair chance that Gosden has something else put away for it, such as Royal Line. Secret Advisor is currently off 101 so has gone down in the handicap since the weights for this came out and will need to go up again but Sheikh Mo owns Royal Line anyway and Godolphin will have the likes of Bin Battuta and Red Galileo in it. Ben Vrackie is the percentage call here but he’s a pretty short favourite. I’ll go for King’s Advice instead. I’ll have something on Manjaam at long odds. He has nothing to lose here for such a big prize and is weighted to win on his best form. Platitude is also worth a pop at long odds.Ruby was raging after the race. Presume he was expecting one of the other Mullins horses to make it a real test but didn’t transpire like he had wished and ended up trying to come from way back off a slow gallop to no avail. Personally i think the best horse won but Rubys annoyance was plain to see and i presume someone didn’t do their job.
I don’t buy that.
More likely to be faked anger to keep the lie going.
If you analyse every one of his rides you can tell when he’s trying and when he isn’t. No-one judges the pace here better than him. He would have known before they jumped the first that they weren’t overdoing it. He’s more likely to be angry because he made it look so obvious.
I also read he claimed the headgear made Footpad sulk and drop himself out. How many stories is he going to make up?
Last year I had a bit on Ballycasey for the National at about 33-1 IIRC. He was making a perfectly satisfactory fist of the first circuit when brought down in the Balthazar King incident at the Canal Turn.
I see no reason not to reinvest at the current 80-1 NRNB (B365). This is a horse who was competitive in top 3m novice chases two years ago – 4th in the RSA and 2nd in the Punchestown version, ahead of Don Cossack. Ran a cracking trial in my view on Thursday to get 5th over too short a trip in the Plate. He now gets in the National of 147, 3lb less than last year equating to 10st 6lb.
I would not be surprised if Ruby doesn’t ride again and if so he’ll be less than half the price.
Was only prepping the other day too. Fine run and a must for any short list. I got 100/1 a while ago so am pleased with the run. I’m very surprised he hardly moved in the market.
Well one IG backers.
Thought Ruby gave Footpad an awful lot to doI was thinking that as they approached the first, S/c. I reckon anyone who backed Footpad (I didn’t but he was one I reluctantly passed over in favour of the filly) has every right to be fizzing mad. I’m surprised the stewards didn’t ask for a lie, sorry, I mean an explanation.
It will be interesting to see how much the handicapper raises Theatre Guide following his demolition job on Saturday.
I’m rating him a fair bit better than the bare form as so many things went against him during the race and he appeared to get a less than efficient ride. I’m not sure even a 10lbs hike might stop him.
I really want Arzal to go for this. He only has Douvan and Vaniteux to beat and he’s got every chance of beating the latter. These three apart, it’s the weakest Arkle for a long time and he’s a phenomenal bet at huge odds (esp at Betfair).
There is nothing wrong with hemming an opponent in. It is part of race riding and within the rules.
As others have pointed out, it’s when jockeys break the rules to get out of a bad situation that causes problems.
I suggested a football analogy earlier. It’s a bit like a player shielding the ball from an opponent. It’s within the laws but we often see players foul in order to get at the ball. Others will argue that, to an extent and depending on how the shielding is carried out, there is a case for deeming it obstruction.
I’m sure the Beckett team will take the spirit of Robin’s argument into the appeal.
Why don’t the people involved understand the rules?
Because they’re fuddled. (The rules, I mean.)
Clarity in other sports means the rules are followed and everybody understands why sanctions are imposed when they’re broken.
I accept that occasionally a horse can make a move the jockey wasn’t expecting but that’s part of the sport. The jockey is there for a reason.
My tuppenceworth…
Firstly I should clarify that I have no financial interest in the decision as I was on FOR.
I think the decision, based on the visual evidence, is the correct one. That in itself is a bit of a rarity in British racing. (OK, that last bit was meant to be tongue in cheek.)
The basic idea that the best horse should not lose the race is where the entire British stewarding system founders.
Can you imagine if the ‘guidelines’ operated by the BHB were transferred across to athletics or golf or snooker? Or even football?
Athletics: an athlete would be allowed to keep the race if he or she stepped inside the next inside lane but won by far enough for it not to have mattered a jot. Every other race would see instances of the offence because the athletes would know they can get away with it.
Golf: a golfer mis-scores his card by a shot but he wins by two anyway so he’s OK?
Snooker: a player touches the cue ball but it doesn’t really move so he hasn’t really fouled? (I know this now happens in golf, by the way.)
I like the granny mugging analogy above, by the way.
Bending over backwards to be ‘fair’ is producing the polar opposite in racing. The horse and jockey are a team. If one breaks the rules they should be disqualified completely. None of this fannying about with placing behind the opponent offended. Last place.
We’d get some controversy for a season or so but it wouldn’t be long before everyone played by the same rules.
I’ve seen a couple of the videos now. I think the official comment of ‘unextended’ is stretching things a bit. ‘Comfortably’ would be my description.
I found a link to Simon Rowland’s (?) take on the meeting between him and Solow. It seems AF is the faster over 2f but S might edge it over 3f. He reckons if Solow makes it a test of stamina he might beat AF. Apparently there’s only 1lb between them [in AF’s favour] with Timeform.
I’m just glad we’ve got the two raiders to look forward to otherwise it’s a fairly ordinary G1.
Yes, the idea of whether or not Golden Horn stays is based on many years of reading other people’s interpretation of what’s in front of them. In my opinion to suggest he didn’t stay doesn’t make sense but if there was a better horse doing the rounds who had beaten him into second you’d get no shortage of people saying he didn’t stay.
As I said before the race, Hawk Wing was deemed a non-stayer at Epsom because he was beaten. People conveniently forgot that he was 12 lengths clear of the third. Had there been no High Chaparral on the day, Hawk Wing would have gone into Derby history as the widest margin winner in history and nobody would be doubting his stamina.
As a 4yo in the Lockinge he was again a record 11 lengths clear winner. For me, he never got the credit he deserved.
I read Simon’s analysis last week. It makes perfect sense to me but what it doesn’t do, interestingly enough, is make GH a superstar.
Jack Hobbs strikes me as a really exciting prospect, being bred, as he is, to improve over the next two seasons. This guy could be a monster next season.
Able Friend has been running times at Sha Tin faster than Epsom’s standards. Presumably Sha Tin is flat and Epsom’s are the fastest in this country.
I might spend the next few days trying to research times over there and, of course, there is the travel issue, but I suspect AF might be some 10lbs better than anything we have.
If I come with anything I’ll post it here.
I’ve now had a chance to crunch some numbers from Derby day.
Rating the Derby according to the time, it makes Stravagante in the opening handicap very fast indeed. On form ratings, the picture is a bit cloudier. Are we to believe Storm The Stars improved 4lbs from Goodwood a fortnight before, which in turn was an improvement on his Chester form behind Hans Hobein? Are we to believe Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs improved 7lbs and 6lbs respectively from the Dante? I’m keeping an open mind about it, with Golden Horn on 126 but am prepared to drop it a bit if Storm The Stars doesn’t frank it. Workforce was around 128 on collateral lines but much higher on time but I suspect his was the only genuinely fast race on the day and it should be noted he was well beaten next time out in the King George. That he came out and won the Arc suggests the Derby took a lot out of him at the time and who’s to say Golden Horn won’t experience the bounce too?
Everything points to Golden Horn being a very good (but no better than that) Derby winner, Jack Hobbs an average placed Derby runner and everything else sub-standard.
To put it into some kind of historical context, it would put Workforce a length and a half further in front – in which case people might argue that Golden Horn didn’t truly stay (!) – with the really good Derby horses even further ahead.
The first thing I wrote on FB after the race was ‘Hans Holbein was sacrificed for GC’ but watching the race again a couple of times later on I wasn’t so sure the tactic was deliberate but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.
They are definitely a gambling operation.
Re Hans Holbein as a pacemaker, I just wonder if the jockey donald-ducked up on the day. It’s possible they wanted him to get back under the radar as far as the Irish Derby or St Leger is concerned in much the same way it is now clear they wanted to keep Qualified under the radar for the Oaks but my gut reaction, having backed the beast, is that the jockey just had a rush of blood when Elm Park blasted past him out of the gate.
My sectional friend has emailed me apologising profusely for a mistake he made with Giovanni Canaletto’s last run. It turns out GC didn’t have the big figure he’d thought.
It made no material difference to me. I was always looking for something with which to oppose Golden Horn since I didn’t think it would stay. I’d backed GC on the morning of his race so was already on. That was on the assumption it would more than halve in price if it did win, just to give me a position on the race. The alternative would have been Jack Hobbs but it would have been a win bet.
On top of that, my brother was on Golden Horn ante-post long before the Dante – at 33/1. I had to suffer him on the phone last night…
