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Done my dough on Sam Winner, backed him a few months back…my antepost list is now as follows:
Gallant Oscar 33s
Holywell 20s
Shutthefrontdoor 20sAlso Nicholls to train the winner – 12/1
Jonjo O’Neill 10/1Will wait until the day now to back some more, long term weather forecast looks mixed but shouldn’t be any worse than good to soft I don’t think.
We need 17 to come out in the next 3 weeks for Cause Of Causes to get in.
Only 9 came out between now and the start last year
Don’t like this one bit
I notice Gigginstown and JP McManus have a few out of form horses in the weights, wonder how many of those will run?
Might be more non-runners than last year, although still doubt CofC will get a run.Value Is EverythingAfter the scratchings, can’t look any further than the classiest horse in the race Siviniaco Conti.
No reason to believe he won’t get the trip, is one of the most accurate jumpers around, and with the weights as they are, Many Clouds can’t give him 2lb and beat him. If both horses were at their best Conti would be giving him 7lb or more….if the blinkers work again….well…
He looks a cracking bet at 12/1.Good luck Jamie, however…
There is reason to believe Silvi won’t get the trip. Greatest test of stamina he’s faced are the three Gold Cups:1/ Bobs Worth’s: Travelled well tracking pace and looked a danger before falling, too far out to know where he’d have finished.
2/ Lord Windermere’s: Raced mid-div, travelled best of all and looked the winner three out and even one out, didn’t get home.
3/ Coneygree’s: Again raced in mid-div, took keen hold at times (take a look coming down the hill on first circuit with Fehily struggling to hold him). Beaten two out in a strongly run (stamina sapping) renewal.
…And all this at 3m2f. Has to go slower than ever in the Grand National.
Silviniaco Conti showed last time he’s as good at 2 1/2 miles as 3, so has plenty of speed. But this race requires stamina, will he stay almost 4 1/2? In my opinion the “not so good at Cheltenham” may well be to do with one, two or even all three of these things:
a) Not enough Stamina.
b) Not so good if not racing prominently.
c) Is better on a flat course.Unlikely to race to the fore over this trip, so has to prove all three.
Value Is EverythingAfter the scratchings, can’t look any further than the classiest horse in the race Siviniaco Conti.
No reason to believe he won’t get the trip, is one of the most accurate jumpers around, and with the weights as they are, Many Clouds can’t give him 2lb and beat him. If both horses were at their best Conti would be giving him 7lb or more….if the blinkers work again….well…
He looks a cracking bet at 12/1.Good luck Jamie, however…
There is reason to believe Silvi won’t get the trip. Greatest test of stamina he’s faced are the three Gold Cups:1/ Bobs Worth’s: Travelled well tracking pace and looked a danger before falling, too far out to know where he’d have finished.
2/ Lord Windermere’s: Raced mid-div, travelled best of all and looked the winner three out and even one out, didn’t get home.
3/ Coneygree’s: Again raced in mid-div, took keen hold at times (take a look coming down the hill on first circuit with Fehily struggling to hold him). Beaten two out in a strongly run (stamina sapping) renewal.
…And all this at 3m2f. Has to go slower than ever in the Grand National.
Silviniaco Conti showed last time he’s as good at 2 1/2 miles as 3, so has plenty of speed. But this race requires stamina, will he stay almost 4 1/2? In my opinion the “not so good at Cheltenham” may well be to do with one, two or even all three of these things:
a) Not enough Stamina.
b) Not so good if not racing prominently.
c) Is better on a flat course.Unlikely to race to the fore over this trip, so has to prove all three.
Interesting points. Bobs Worth when he fell, he was tanking at the time.
Lord Windermere’s race still doesn’t sit right with me. It seems SC and Bobs Worth both fell in a hole coming up the hill. Still wonder if there was a bad patch of ground their side, strange race.
Coneygree, just don’t think the horse has been the same until the sarcoids got treated, a tinker with his wind and now the blinkers.
Nicholls has always maintained he’s a stayer, and two King Georges proved that. Neptune Collonges didn’t do that….
I’m gonna put faith in class to see him through, there’s always a doubt they will get the National trip until they go and do it.
The blinkers may help to not be so keen as well.
He just doesn’t seem to earn the plaudits some of his esteemed stable mates have over the years, but he is certainly one of the best horses to have lined up in the race for me.Blinkers are used for the opposite affect Jamie, adding speed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if headgear is done away with in an attempt to curtail his keeness. Unless they change to a hood which can help in that department.I agree, Silviniaco Conti is certainly one of the best horses to run in the race, one of my favourite racehorses, just have big doubts about him staying.
Two King Georges at 3 miles does not prove he’s a true stayer. Would you have backed dual King George winner One Man to stay almost 4 1/2 miles?
Value Is EverythingWith regard to Cause Of Causes form, you have to think that Tom George will train A Good Skin for a National next season, unless he’s running him at Ayr this season. He’s been staying on over 3 miles in good company and proper tests of stamina might be his thing.
Blinkers are used for the opposite affect Jamie, adding speed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if headgear is done away with in an attempt to curtail his keeness. Unless they change to a hood which can help in that department.I agree, Silviniaco Conti is certainly one of the best horses to run in the race, one of my favourite racehorses, just have big doubts about him staying.
Two King Georges at 3 miles does not prove he’s a true stayer. Would you have backed dual King George winner One Man to stay almost 4 1/2 miles?
No I wouldn’t, but Conti has always been regarded as a stayer by his trainer, and I’m happy to believe his judgement.
McManus will probably rely on Shutthefrontdoor, Gallant Oscar and Carlingford Lough here, not sure his others will make the cut. I see C of C as a type for next year’s edition as a 9 year old.
C Of C is not going to be anywhere near as well handicapped if waiting another year. There’s less time between Cheltenham and Aintree this time around. If they think he’s recovered and if scraping in – think he’ll run.
Value Is EverythingWonderful Charm hasn’t run for some time, anyone know whether he’s had a recent wind operation?
Value Is EverythingI’ve been a fan of Morning Assembly during his relatively short career. He was a Grade 1 winning novice hurdler, but always had the build of a chaser. Pat Fahy’s charge duly beat Don Cossack in the Florida Pearl, and was placed in three Grade 1 events, including the RSA, during his freshman chase campaign. Connections were even considering a crack at the Punchestown Gold Cup after his Festival third that year.
He missed last season, but has returned this term with three solid efforts, including a fine fourth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last week. Davy Russell gave him a quiet ride, with one eye clearly on Aintree, and connections are again hoping he will be in the saddle.
Morning Assembly travels, jumps, stays well and is arguably the ‘right age’. His dam sire, Montelimar, also sired Grand National winners Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass.
Holywell has to go well off his weight, while Rule The World could have been anything had injury not intervened. He found only The New One too good in the Neptune as a novice hurdler, and showed his potential over marathon trips when second in the Irish National last season.
On a lighter note, how can I not resist a crack at the Spring Double, courtesy of the aptly named duo Lord Of The Land (Lincoln) and Rule The World (Grand National)
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
This has been the target all season for Wonderful Charm apparently, and he does run well fresh. On good ground he could be a live outsider at 50/1 but is a quirky sort…
Cause of Causes declared for Irish National, so at least we’re put out of our misery.
I blame the trainer 60% and the handicapper 40%. I think he’s put two fingers up to Elliott by dropping the horse when running over inadequate trips. 146 – his mark last year – would have seen him make the cut
I’ll be putting money on him for 2017. He’ll be only 9
Ballycasey – i’ve had some of that at big odds. bred for a National.
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